Game Analysis

CINCINNATI (-3.5) vs Miami

· It would be tough to justify the Bengals giving more than a field goald to the Dolphins if this wasn’t an extremely difficult situation for Miami.

· Playing on Thursday night is not ideal for a defense that faced 90 snaps in a hot humid exhausting game last Sunday against the Bills. Opponents are 16-8 to the over on team totals against defenses coming off a game in which they faced 90+ snaps the previous week since 2000 even before accounting for the short week. It would not be surprising if the Dolphins laid an egg on Thursday night.

· Cincinnati isn’t without problems on its own. Bengals interior defender DJ Reader (knee) is likely to be shut down for at least a month and right tackle La’el Collins (back) could be scratched as well.

· Reader leads all interior defenders with a 16% pressure rate and Cincinnati’s run stuff rate goes from 22% with Reader on the field to 13% without Reader.

· Collins ranked 14th in pass blocking efficiency last season and was brought in to shore up the offensive line.

· Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase is off to a slow start, catching just 64% of his targets from Joe Burrow. Chase has gained only 1.42 yards per route run compared to 2.51 last season. Chase will go against Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard with aid over the top from Dolphins’ safety Jevon Holland. Howard tied for league lead with four pass breakups and Holland allowed just six yards in coverage last week on three targets.

· Cincinnati edge rusher Trey Hendrickson recorded eight total pressures against the Jets and forced two fumbles. Hendrickson will be contained on Thursday night by Miami LT Terron Armstead, who ranks 11th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Tua Tagovailoa should have time to look downfield for wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who leads the NFL gaining 3.98 yards per route run and has a favorable matchup against Cincinnati’s worst CB, Eli Apple.

· Our model has the Dolphins by 1.5 points, with a predicted total of 47.3 points, but the situation is not good for Miami, as they apply to a 22-76-1 ATS letdown situation based on last week’s upset win over the Bills. I used Miami plus the points in my pool.