Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Miami (+12 -105) over BUFFALO

Lean – Under (50)

• It hasn’t been nearly as bad as it looks for the 0-2 Dolphins this season. Miami is only -0.2 net yards per play (18th).
• The Dolphins’ offense is below their standard, averaging 17.5 points per game, but they have an above-average 45% success rate and rank 11th in non-turnover EPA/play.
• Tua Tagovailoa is missing the right side of his offensive line, but he compensated for that last week by getting the ball out fast and he was pressured on just 26% of his dropbacks in week 2.
• Miami RB De’Von Achane had a career-high 31% target share versus New England. Only three running backs hit a 30% share in a game last year.
• I expect Tagovailoa to continue getting the ball into Achane’s hands quickly because the Bills will likely be without starting LB Matt Milano, who appeared to have injured his hamstring near the end of the first half last week and did not return.
• Buffalo backup LB Dorian Williams ranked 51st in PFF Coverage Grade last season out of 53 qualifying linebackers.
• The Bills’ defense is also without interior defender Ed Oliver and his backup Deone Walker has just a 6% pressure rate.
• This line was Buffalo -8.5 before the season. The Bills are still a top-3 power-rated team, but the Dolphins aren’t suddenly a bottom 5 team, as the current line suggests. Miami is missing two starters on offense, but it is canceled out by Buffalo missing two starters on defense.
• Our model favors the Bills by just 8.4 points with a predicted total of 46.6.

Miami is a Strong Opinion at +11.5 points or more.