Game Analysis

Lean – BUFFALO (-13) over Miami

Strong Opinion – James Cook (Buff) Over 12 Receiving Yards to 14

· Tua Tagovailoa will not be returning for the playoffs and backup Teddy Bridgewater appears unlikely to be ready due to a finger injury. Rookie Skylar Thompson will get the nod and he’s the reason this line has approached two touchdowns.

· Thompson is averaging 4.5 yppp in the games he’s taken extended snaps (i.e. excluding garbage time) but 89 of those 103 pass plays were against the Jets and Patriots, who are very good defending the pass. The average opponent yppp allowed that Thompson faced, weighted for how many pass plays he had against each team, was 5.6 yppp, which is 0.5 yppp better than the league average. So, I expect Thompson to be better than 4.5 yppp in this game.

· Buffalo’s pass defense allows a 46% success rate (18th) while New England and New York conceded just a 43% success rate this season – ranking 4th and 5th in the league.

· The strength of Buffalo’s defense this season has been linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano, who rank 3rd and 4th in coverage grade by PFF. The Bills allowed 4.7 yards per target to opposing running backs (4th) and 5.2 yards per target to opposing tight ends (2nd).

· Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White had arguably his best game since returning from injury last week, allowing just one catch for 10 yards and had an interception. However, the rest of Buffalo’s secondary is not impressive.

· The Bills have been without starting safety Micah Hyde since week 2 and now his backup Damar Hamlin has been sidelined. Free safety Jordan Poyer is battling a knee injury and Dane Jackson ranks 49th in coverage grade out of 67 qualifying cornerbacks.

· The Dolphins have the best wide receiver tandem in the NFL to go against Buffalo’s ailing secondary. Jaylen Waddle is averaging a league-high 0.64 EPA/target and Tyreek Hill is not far behind at 0.38 EPA/target (16th).

· Miami head coach Mike McDaniel’s scheme is also built to find holes in a defense that drops 7 into coverage, which is Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier’s preference. Thompson only had 16 dropbacks versus the blitz this season but Tua was one of just five quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks this year to have a first down rate against a standard pass rush above his first down rate versus the blitz. The Bills have an 81% standard pass rush rate (10th).

· Tagovailoa averaged 7.8 yppp against Buffalo’s defense this season and I expect Thompson to be better on Sunday than he was versus the Jets and Patriots.

· However, there are some reasons Thompson could struggle and the Dolphins team total sits at only 14.5. Quarterbacks making a playoff debut are just 19-35-1 ATS in the last two decades versus a quarterback with postseason experience.

· Thompson may be taking snaps behind an offensive line missing up to three starters. RT Brandon Shell ranks 53rd in pass blocking efficiency and he will be terrible even if he is able to suit up against Bills edge defender Gregory Rousseau.

· Rousseau had a sack, quarterback hit, and three hurries last week versus New England backup right tackle Conor McDermott. Nonetheless, Buffalo would’ve loved to have edge defender Von Miller alongside Rousseau for a postseason run. Miller ranked 7th in pass rushing efficiency before tearing his ACL on Thanksgiving and he is worth 0.6 points.

· The Bills defense ranks average in rush success rate at 41% and McDaniel may attempt to run the ball if he can keep the game within one score.

· Dolphins’ defensive coordinator Josh Boyer coached in New England under Bill Belichick for 13 seasons before taking the job in Miami and runs a similar but less effective man coverage scheme. Josh Allen crushed the Patriots with 14.9-yard average depth of target last week and he went 6-of-8 for 93 yards and a score on passes thrown between 10 and 19 yards downfield.

· Dolphins CB Byron Jones has been sidelined since a March surgery to address ankle and Achilles issues, then CB Nik Needham tore his Achilles, and CB Noah Igbinoghene has been benched. Keion Crossen was Miami’s fourth option at right cornerback coming into the season and has now been forced into the starting lineup.

· The Bills have shown they will line Stefon Diggs up all over the field with him taking roughly a third of his snaps from the left side, right side, and in the slot. Diggs is averaging 0.49 EPA/target this season (5th) and Buffalo’s staff will look to hunt Crossen.

· The Dolphins best option is to shadow Diggs with Xavien Howard no matter where he is lined up, but Howard is having a down season, as he ranks 56th in coverage grade by PFF out of 67 qualifying cornerbacks.

· Miami traded a first-round pick for Bradley Chubb, but the edge defender has only 14 pressures in eight games with the Dolphins. However, Miami’s defense should be able to get home against Allen for at least a couple sacks this week.

· Dolphins edge defender Jaelan Phillips ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency this season and got pressure on 33% of his rushes last week. Phillips will mostly go against Buffalo RT Spencer Brown, who ranks 52nd in pass blocking efficiency out of 56 qualifying tackles.

· Miami’s defense is conceding a 38% rush success rate (5th) but Josh Allen ran for 124 yards in two games versus Dolphins because they don’t always keep eyes on the quarterback due to the man coverage. Allen averages 1.2 more carries per game in the playoffs during his career than the regular season and I’m sure will have both designed runs and scrambles on Sunday afternoon.

· Our model favors the Bills by 13 points, with a predicted total of 45.0 points, so the line is fair, but road underdogs of 10 points or more are just 4-21-1 ATS in the playoffs since 1991 and Buffalo applies to a 36-4-1 ATS playoff situation.