Miami Dolphins @

Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Oct 15
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 255
Odds: Atlanta Falcons -11.5, Total: 46

Game Analysis

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Lean – ATLANTA (-11.5) over Miami

Miami beat Tennessee last week in an ugly game featuring a pair of terrible offenses that combined to average only 3.1 yppl. The Dolphins offense ranks last in the league in my metrics, mostly because Jay Cutler hasn’t been able to get the passing game going. Cutler is averaging only 4.4 yppp, which is nearly 2 yards per pass play worse than his career average. That number should rise over the course of the season but Atlanta has the 4th ranked pass defense in my numbers and I expect Miami’s offensive struggles to continue in this game.

The Falcons probably should’ve been undefeated going into their bye last week. In week 4, Atlanta outgained the Bills 5.4 yppl to 4.8 yppl yet lost due to a -3 turnover margin, one of which was a controversial strip-sack returned for a touchdown. The Falcons are the only team in the league outgaining their opponents by more than 1 yard per play and they rank first overall in my ratings based on this season’s games only. The Dolphins defense has been fortunate to hold opponents to a less than 30% conversion rate on third down, which I don’t expect that to continue against Atlanta’s high powered offense in this game.

Overall, the number on this game is fair, as my ratings favor Atlanta by 11.4 points, but the Falcons apply to a 105-46-2 ATS off a bye week angle that has me leaning their way.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Dolphins
  • Falcons
MIA
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 36.0 36.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 37.2% 50.0%
  • Sack Rate 7.0% 7.2%
  • Int Rate 2.9% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.4% 12.5%
  • Big Pass Yards 22.0% 25.2%
  • NYPP 4.3 6.7



Rush


  • Rush Plays 23.8 24.3
  • RB YPR 2.9 2.9
  • Stuff Rate 36.3% 35.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 46.7% 35.5%
  • Big Rush Yards 18.1% 62.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.1 3.2




Game

  • All Snaps 59.8 60.3
  • Early Down Succ 46.9% 48.5%
  • Succ Rate 40.8% 44.8%
  • Big Yards Rate 22.1% 33.5%
  • Yards Per Play 3.8 5.2
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 1.3%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.6 31.6
  • Run Ratio 39.2% 39.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.0 27.6
  • Game Control -3.3 3.3
 
  • Points 10.3 16.8
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