Game Analysis
Lean – ATLANTA (-11.5) over Miami
Miami beat Tennessee last week in an ugly game featuring a pair of terrible offenses that combined to average only 3.1 yppl. The Dolphins offense ranks last in the league in my metrics, mostly because Jay Cutler hasn’t been able to get the passing game going. Cutler is averaging only 4.4 yppp, which is nearly 2 yards per pass play worse than his career average. That number should rise over the course of the season but Atlanta has the 4th ranked pass defense in my numbers and I expect Miami’s offensive struggles to continue in this game.
The Falcons probably should’ve been undefeated going into their bye last week. In week 4, Atlanta outgained the Bills 5.4 yppl to 4.8 yppl yet lost due to a -3 turnover margin, one of which was a controversial strip-sack returned for a touchdown. The Falcons are the only team in the league outgaining their opponents by more than 1 yard per play and they rank first overall in my ratings based on this season’s games only. The Dolphins defense has been fortunate to hold opponents to a less than 30% conversion rate on third down, which I don’t expect that to continue against Atlanta’s high powered offense in this game.
Overall, the number on this game is fair, as my ratings favor Atlanta by 11.4 points, but the Falcons apply to a 105-46-2 ATS off a bye week angle that has me leaning their way.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.0
36.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
37.2%
50.0%
-
Sack Rate
7.0%
7.2%
-
Int Rate
2.9%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.4%
12.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
22.0%
25.2%
-
NYPP
4.3
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.8
24.3
-
RB YPR
2.9
2.9
-
Stuff Rate
36.3%
35.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.7%
35.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
18.1%
62.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.1
3.2
Game
-
All Snaps
59.8
60.3
-
Early Down Succ
46.9%
48.5%
-
Succ Rate
40.8%
44.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
22.1%
33.5%
-
Yards Per Play
3.8
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.6
31.6
-
Run Ratio
39.2%
39.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.0
27.6
-
Game Control
-3.3
3.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.8
41.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.8%
41.7%
-
Sack Rate
5.9%
8.0%
-
Int Rate
3.3%
0.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.0%
17.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.7%
28.4%
-
NYPP
7.5
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.5
23.0
-
RB YPR
4.4
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
21.0%
22.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.6%
46.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.4%
29.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
63.3
64.8
-
Early Down Succ
51.9%
45.1%
-
Succ Rate
49.2%
43.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.4%
28.7%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.3%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.2
27.3
-
Run Ratio
43.7%
36.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
24.7
25.5
-
Game Control
4.8
-4.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 2 |
@LAC |
19 – 17 W |
-2.0 |
44.4% /
62.5% |
5.6% /
2.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
8.1 |
36.4% /
28.6% |
30.3% /
50.0% |
3.4 /
3.1 |
69 /
54 |
43.4% /
58.7% |
40.6% /
53.7% |
38.9% /
28.6% |
4.9 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.8% /
25.9% |
26.4 /
24.9 |
| 3 |
@NYJ |
6 – 20 L |
-9.8 |
41.7% /
52.0% |
6.3% /
8.0% |
4.4% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
9.3 |
46.7% /
37.1% |
46.7% /
34.3% |
2.0 /
3.0 |
63 /
60 |
54.2% /
48.9% |
42.9% /
43.3% |
11.6% /
40.1% |
3.6 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
23.8% /
58.3% |
23.7 /
31.4 |
| 4 |
NO |
0 – 20 L |
-5.5 |
37.5% /
48.8% |
12.5% /
2.4% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
6.4 |
60.0% /
46.4% |
40.0% /
14.3% |
3.9 /
3.1 |
47 /
69 |
52.6% /
46.3% |
44.7% /
47.8% |
31.7% /
46.1% |
4.0 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.9% /
40.6% |
27.0 /
28.8 |
| 5 |
TEN |
16 – 10 W |
4.2 |
25.0% /
36.8% |
3.6% /
15.8% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
2.8 /
3.1 |
43.8% /
30.0% |
28.1% /
45.0% |
3.2 /
3.5 |
60 /
58 |
37.2% /
40.0% |
35.0% /
34.5% |
6.1% /
19.1% |
3.0 /
3.2 |
1.7% /
3.4% |
53.3% /
34.5% |
27.0 /
25.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CHI |
23 – 17 W |
2.5 |
50.0% /
31.8% |
6.3% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.6 /
4.0 |
32.0% /
52.6% |
24.0% /
15.8% |
2.6 /
6.6 |
57 /
63 |
45.2% /
37.5% |
42.1% /
38.1% |
49.7% /
31.2% |
6.6 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
30.2% |
18.3 /
28.1 |
| 2 |
GB |
34 – 23 W |
12.4 |
51.6% /
50.9% |
9.7% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
7.2 /
5.8 |
55.6% /
56.3% |
18.5% /
25.0% |
5.2 /
3.8 |
58 /
69 |
55.3% /
53.8% |
53.4% /
52.2% |
50.0% /
24.2% |
6.3 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
46.6% /
23.2% |
26.7 /
22.1 |
| 3 |
@DET |
30 – 26 W |
6.3 |
48.6% /
40.4% |
5.4% /
4.3% |
8.6% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
5.4 |
48.3% /
31.6% |
13.8% /
26.3% |
5.2 /
3.7 |
66 /
66 |
50.9% /
41.5% |
48.5% /
37.9% |
34.7% /
31.8% |
6.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
28.8% |
27.8 /
29.7 |
| 4 |
BUF |
17 – 23 L |
-2.0 |
48.8% /
43.5% |
2.3% /
13.0% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
7.1 |
58.6% /
44.7% |
27.6% /
23.7% |
5.1 /
3.1 |
72 /
61 |
56.1% /
47.7% |
52.8% /
44.3% |
30.9% /
27.6% |
5.4 /
4.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
62.3% |
25.9 /
21.9 |
Miami Dolphins
@ 
Atlanta Falcons