Game Analysis
***TENNESSEE (+6.5) over Los Angeles Rams
The Rams’ thorough domination of the Seahawks in Seattle last week, combined with the public perception of the decline of Marcus Mariota provides value on the Titans. Tennessee’s offense ranks 19th in scoring and 17th in yards per pass play after finishing 14th and 12th respectively a season ago, but some of that drop can simply be attributed to Matt Cassel’s dreadful mid-season performance. In fact, Mariota’s 6.4 yards per pass play would rank 14th and is only slightly less than his career average. Furthermore, Pro Football Focus had Mariota with the worst interception luck of any quarterback in the league in terms of turnover worthy throws going into last week. I expect Mariota to improve moving forward, as he has been better than his numbers show.
Todd Gurley’s 311 touches rank second in the NFL and his success is vital to the Rams. Los Angeles has the 4th best rushing offense in my metrics but they will likely struggle this week against Tennessee’s 2nd-ranked rush defense.
The market has moved 3 points from the look-ahead line from last week, as it’s obvious that last week’s results have been over-adjusted for in the market. The Rams are a west coast team traveling east to play an early game, which is historically a bad situation and Los Angeles applies to a 6-43-2 ATS subset of a 36-84-3 ATS letdown situation that plays against teams playing a non-division opponent on the road after beating a division rival the previous week as a pick or underdog. The Rams also apply to a 19-63-2 ATS blowout letdown situation and my predictive ratings favor the Rams by only 1 point after factoring in their unfavorable travel situation (by 2 ½ points before the adjustment). And, Tennessee applies to an 80-25-1 ATS week 16 underdog situation. The Titans will be playing with their season on the line while the Rams don’t have a sense of urgency knowing they are pretty much locked into the #3 seed in East, as Minnesota would have to lose both of their games against non-playoff teams to give up their #2 spot. I’ll take Tennessee in a 3-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 2-Stars down to +4 points (1-Star at +3.5).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.4
37.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.8%
38.8%
-
Sack Rate
5.1%
9.0%
-
Int Rate
1.5%
3.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.1%
18.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
47.8%
48.1%
-
NYPP
7.5
5.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.2
26.2
-
RB YPR
4.1
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
25.6%
22.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.9%
42.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
45.9%
44.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
63.6
63.9
-
Early Down Succ
50.6%
40.8%
-
Succ Rate
46.6%
40.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
49.1%
48.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.3
28.2
-
Run Ratio
47.3%
40.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
32.6
27.0
-
Game Control
8.0
-8.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.3
40.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.0%
46.9%
-
Sack Rate
6.4%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
4.2%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.9%
16.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.6%
28.4%
-
NYPP
6.1
5.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.9
25.6
-
RB YPR
3.9
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
26.3%
23.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.9%
40.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.9%
28.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
3.4
Game
-
All Snaps
61.1
66.1
-
Early Down Succ
47.5%
48.0%
-
Succ Rate
44.2%
44.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.7%
28.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.5
27.9
-
Run Ratio
45.5%
38.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.6
29.2
-
Game Control
-1.3
1.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
IND |
46 – 9 W |
21.3 |
54.8% / 28.0% |
3.2% / 16.0% |
0.0% / 9.5% |
10.0 / 6.0 |
22.5% / 32.0% |
22.5% / 28.0% |
1.7 / 3.0 |
71 / 50 |
43.5% / 40.5% |
36.6% / 30.0% |
52.7% / 81.4% |
5.3 / 4.5 |
1.4% / 2.0% |
56.3% / 50.0% |
35.8 / 23.1 |
2 |
WAS |
20 – 27 L |
-4.5 |
39.3% / 48.3% |
7.1% / 6.9% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
8.6 / 5.4 |
59.1% / 46.2% |
13.6% / 17.9% |
4.2 / 5.9 |
50 / 68 |
51.4% / 49.1% |
48.0% / 47.1% |
61.9% / 46.2% |
6.7 / 5.7 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
44.0% / 57.4% |
22.4 / 34.5 |
3 |
@SF |
41 – 39 W |
8.5 |
64.3% / 46.3% |
0.0% / 9.8% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
10.4 / 7.5 |
51.5% / 51.5% |
30.3% / 27.3% |
3.8 / 3.4 |
61 / 74 |
57.4% / 47.2% |
57.4% / 48.6% |
55.4% / 50.8% |
6.9 / 5.7 |
3.3% / 1.4% |
54.1% / 44.6% |
36.1 / 36.1 |
4 |
@DAL |
35 – 30 W |
-2.3 |
48.6% / 35.1% |
2.7% / 5.4% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
6.6 / 6.8 |
65.6% / 55.6% |
21.9% / 14.8% |
5.3 / 7.0 |
69 / 64 |
63.0% / 41.7% |
56.5% / 43.8% |
51.6% / 52.3% |
6.0 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
46.4% / 42.2% |
34.8 / 22.4 |
5 |
SEA |
10 – 16 L |
0.8 |
35.4% / 45.0% |
4.2% / 7.5% |
4.3% / 5.4% |
5.7 / 4.5 |
40.9% / 19.2% |
45.5% / 23.1% |
4.5 / 2.4 |
70 / 66 |
33.3% / 31.3% |
37.1% / 34.8% |
44.3% / 8.7% |
5.4 / 3.7 |
4.3% / 0.0% |
31.4% / 39.4% |
29.2 / 35.2 |
6 |
@JAC |
27 – 17 W |
5.1 |
37.5% / 37.5% |
12.5% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
4.5 / 5.5 |
64.7% / 42.3% |
20.6% / 30.8% |
4.2 / 6.5 |
58 / 66 |
65.9% / 42.0% |
53.4% / 39.4% |
35.5% / 54.2% |
4.3 / 5.9 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
58.6% / 39.4% |
30.5 / 25.3 |
7 |
ARI |
33 – 0 W |
16.0 |
42.1% / 28.6% |
2.6% / 8.6% |
2.7% / 6.3% |
6.0 / 4.8 |
48.8% / 25.0% |
14.6% / 41.7% |
4.8 / 2.1 |
79 / 47 |
39.7% / 27.3% |
45.6% / 27.7% |
29.1% / 35.8% |
5.4 / 4.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
51.9% / 25.5% |
33.8 / 26.0 |
9 |
@NYG |
51 – 17 W |
19.5 |
54.5% / 42.5% |
0.0% / 5.0% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
14.1 / 5.2 |
37.5% / 59.3% |
40.0% / 11.1% |
4.1 / 4.1 |
62 / 67 |
44.7% / 51.0% |
43.5% / 49.3% |
71.3% / 38.1% |
7.6 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 3.0% |
64.5% / 40.3% |
40.8 / 27.0 |
10 |
HOU |
33 – 7 W |
9.5 |
41.5% / 30.8% |
7.3% / 7.7% |
0.0% / 5.6% |
8.3 / 5.0 |
32.1% / 34.6% |
28.6% / 26.9% |
3.8 / 3.5 |
69 / 65 |
42.6% / 34.0% |
37.7% / 32.3% |
63.9% / 46.8% |
6.5 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 3.1% |
40.6% / 40.0% |
31.2 / 29.4 |
11 |
@MIN |
7 – 24 L |
-1.7 |
47.4% / 55.3% |
5.3% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.5 / 7.4 |
38.9% / 36.1% |
38.9% / 19.4% |
2.6 / 4.8 |
56 / 74 |
50.0% / 44.6% |
44.6% / 45.9% |
18.0% / 50.2% |
4.6 / 6.1 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
32.1% / 48.6% |
24.6 / 22.2 |
12 |
NO |
26 – 20 W |
7.2 |
45.8% / 45.7% |
8.3% / 8.6% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
6.8 / 6.4 |
32.1% / 47.1% |
21.4% / 11.8% |
3.3 / 7.2 |
76 / 52 |
49.1% / 52.6% |
40.8% / 46.2% |
61.0% / 51.2% |
5.5 / 6.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
36.8% / 32.7% |
26.2 / 21.2 |
13 |
@ARI |
32 – 16 W |
9.9 |
50.0% / 39.5% |
3.1% / 15.8% |
3.2% / 6.3% |
6.7 / 5.1 |
50.0% / 50.0% |
25.0% / 8.3% |
3.8 / 4.9 |
56 / 62 |
54.5% / 42.6% |
50.0% / 43.5% |
41.6% / 39.1% |
5.4 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.9% / 38.7% |
34.9 / 27.7 |
14 |
PHI |
35 – 43 L |
-2.0 |
46.4% / 39.6% |
7.1% / 3.8% |
0.0% / 2.0% |
7.1 / 6.0 |
66.7% / 34.4% |
16.7% / 25.0% |
6.1 / 4.3 |
46 / 85 |
62.2% / 34.9% |
54.3% / 37.6% |
56.8% / 37.8% |
6.7 / 5.4 |
4.3% / 0.0% |
39.1% / 37.6% |
28.6 / 25.1 |
15 |
@SEA |
42 – 7 W |
24.8 |
48.0% / 21.6% |
8.0% / 18.9% |
4.3% / 0.0% |
4.3 / 1.9 |
46.5% / 58.8% |
18.6% / 29.4% |
5.7 / 4.6 |
68 / 54 |
51.0% / 32.5% |
47.1% / 33.3% |
44.0% / 81.9% |
5.2 / 2.8 |
0.0% / 3.7% |
63.2% / 31.5% |
47.2 / 23.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
OAK |
16 – 26 L |
-4.4 |
50.0% / 55.9% |
2.4% / 5.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 7.4 |
42.9% / 50.0% |
28.6% / 16.7% |
4.5 / 3.7 |
63 / 64 |
46.9% / 57.1% |
47.6% / 53.1% |
33.1% / 26.7% |
5.6 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
33.3% / 46.9% |
22.4 / 29.3 |
2 |
@JAC |
37 – 16 W |
7.9 |
42.9% / 41.7% |
3.6% / 5.6% |
3.7% / 5.9% |
7.5 / 5.9 |
68.4% / 64.0% |
10.5% / 12.0% |
4.8 / 4.0 |
66 / 61 |
64.0% / 52.1% |
57.6% / 50.8% |
41.6% / 23.5% |
5.9 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
57.6% / 41.0% |
39.9 / 23.4 |
3 |
SEA |
33 – 27 W |
4.9 |
51.6% / 50.0% |
0.0% / 2.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 7.3 |
44.4% / 40.9% |
22.2% / 31.8% |
5.4 / 3.1 |
67 / 72 |
54.9% / 51.8% |
47.8% / 47.2% |
44.9% / 38.8% |
6.3 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
53.7% / 30.6% |
29.6 / 23.3 |
4 |
@HOU |
14 – 57 L |
-20.6 |
40.9% / 58.3% |
9.1% / 5.6% |
20.0% / 2.9% |
5.0 / 7.6 |
35.0% / 50.0% |
15.0% / 14.3% |
4.4 / 4.1 |
42 / 78 |
43.8% / 53.8% |
38.1% / 53.8% |
52.6% / 28.5% |
4.7 / 5.7 |
2.4% / 0.0% |
47.6% / 53.8% |
21.9 / 38.0 |
5 |
@MIA |
10 – 16 L |
-4.2 |
36.8% / 25.0% |
15.8% / 3.6% |
0.0% / 3.7% |
3.1 / 2.8 |
30.0% / 43.8% |
45.0% / 28.1% |
3.5 / 3.2 |
58 / 60 |
40.0% / 37.2% |
34.5% / 35.0% |
19.1% / 6.1% |
3.2 / 3.0 |
3.4% / 1.7% |
34.5% / 53.3% |
25.1 / 27.0 |
6 |
IND |
36 – 22 W |
-1.2 |
57.6% / 51.4% |
3.0% / 0.0% |
3.1% / 0.0% |
9.2 / 5.7 |
42.9% / 40.0% |
20.0% / 20.0% |
4.8 / 4.3 |
68 / 57 |
51.9% / 53.2% |
50.0% / 47.4% |
42.2% / 22.6% |
7.0 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
51.5% / 35.1% |
27.4 / 26.5 |
7 |
@CLE |
12 – 9 W |
2.1 |
41.7% / 39.0% |
5.6% / 4.9% |
0.0% / 7.7% |
5.3 / 5.3 |
31.3% / 25.9% |
46.9% / 22.2% |
2.5 / 2.5 |
68 / 68 |
38.0% / 37.3% |
36.8% / 33.8% |
14.5% / 23.9% |
4.0 / 4.2 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
47.1% / 39.7% |
33.6 / 25.1 |
9 |
BAL |
23 – 20 W |
6.3 |
51.6% / 49.1% |
9.7% / 3.6% |
3.6% / 3.8% |
6.0 / 4.9 |
36.4% / 40.9% |
22.7% / 22.7% |
3.3 / 3.3 |
53 / 77 |
53.8% / 47.4% |
45.3% / 46.8% |
49.0% / 8.2% |
4.9 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
41.5% / 28.6% |
34.6 / 24.8 |
10 |
CIN |
24 – 20 W |
2.6 |
43.8% / 38.9% |
8.3% / 2.8% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
4.9 / 7.1 |
52.8% / 50.0% |
16.7% / 28.6% |
5.0 / 3.8 |
84 / 50 |
46.4% / 48.7% |
47.6% / 42.0% |
34.6% / 51.0% |
5.0 / 6.2 |
1.2% / 4.0% |
42.9% / 28.0% |
26.1 / 30.9 |
11 |
@PIT |
17 – 40 L |
-9.1 |
41.0% / 55.3% |
12.8% / 6.4% |
11.8% / 0.0% |
6.8 / 6.0 |
32.0% / 33.3% |
32.0% / 16.7% |
2.2 / 2.8 |
64 / 71 |
42.9% / 55.6% |
37.5% / 47.9% |
53.3% / 26.7% |
5.0 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.1% / 33.8% |
22.2 / 44.3 |
12 |
@IND |
20 – 16 W |
-0.5 |
48.0% / 37.8% |
0.0% / 21.6% |
8.0% / 0.0% |
7.4 / 4.5 |
40.0% / 37.5% |
26.7% / 20.8% |
3.1 / 3.7 |
55 / 61 |
48.8% / 36.2% |
43.6% / 37.7% |
35.6% / 28.3% |
5.1 / 4.2 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
54.5% / 39.3% |
31.1 / 29.8 |
13 |
HOU |
24 – 13 W |
-0.2 |
36.0% / 51.9% |
8.0% / 7.7% |
0.0% / 2.1% |
5.8 / 6.4 |
44.0% / 26.1% |
24.0% / 39.1% |
7.9 / 2.3 |
50 / 75 |
36.8% / 42.9% |
40.0% / 44.0% |
55.5% / 40.5% |
6.9 / 5.1 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 30.7% |
24.3 / 27.5 |
14 |
@ARI |
7 – 12 L |
1.6 |
35.3% / 44.1% |
8.8% / 23.5% |
6.5% / 0.0% |
4.1 / 3.7 |
50.0% / 38.7% |
36.4% / 22.6% |
3.0 / 4.5 |
56 / 65 |
45.2% / 51.1% |
41.1% / 41.5% |
25.0% / 47.9% |
3.6 / 4.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.3% / 47.7% |
24.5 / 35.6 |
15 |
@SF |
23 – 25 L |
-3.0 |
52.9% / 57.8% |
2.9% / 6.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.0 / 8.1 |
50.0% / 27.3% |
21.4% / 36.4% |
3.2 / 2.3 |
62 / 67 |
51.0% / 47.2% |
51.6% / 47.8% |
26.8% / 31.2% |
5.3 / 6.2 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
45.2% / 32.8% |
23.4 / 23.7 |