Los Angeles Rams @

Tennessee Titans

Sun, Dec 24
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 109
Odds: Tennessee Titans +6.5, Total: 47.5

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

***TENNESSEE (+6.5) over Los Angeles Rams

The Rams’ thorough domination of the Seahawks in Seattle last week, combined with the public perception of the decline of Marcus Mariota provides value on the Titans. Tennessee’s offense ranks 19th in scoring and 17th in yards per pass play after finishing 14th and 12th respectively a season ago, but some of that drop can simply be attributed to Matt Cassel’s dreadful mid-season performance. In fact, Mariota’s 6.4 yards per pass play would rank 14th and is only slightly less than his career average. Furthermore, Pro Football Focus had Mariota with the worst interception luck of any quarterback in the league in terms of turnover worthy throws going into last week. I expect Mariota to improve moving forward, as he has been better than his numbers show.

Todd Gurley’s 311 touches rank second in the NFL and his success is vital to the Rams. Los Angeles has the 4th best rushing offense in my metrics but they will likely struggle this week against Tennessee’s 2nd-ranked rush defense.

The market has moved 3 points from the look-ahead line from last week, as it’s obvious that last week’s results have been over-adjusted for in the market. The Rams are a west coast team traveling east to play an early game, which is historically a bad situation and Los Angeles applies to a 6-43-2 ATS subset of a 36-84-3 ATS letdown situation that plays against teams playing a non-division opponent on the road after beating a division rival the previous week as a pick or underdog. The Rams also apply to a 19-63-2 ATS blowout letdown situation and my predictive ratings favor the Rams by only 1 point after factoring in their unfavorable travel situation (by 2 ½ points before the adjustment). And, Tennessee applies to an 80-25-1 ATS week 16 underdog situation. The Titans will be playing with their season on the line while the Rams don’t have a sense of urgency knowing they are pretty much locked into the #3 seed in East, as Minnesota would have to lose both of their games against non-playoff teams to give up their #2 spot. I’ll take Tennessee in a 3-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 2-Stars down to +4 points (1-Star at +3.5).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Rams
  • Titans
LOS
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 33.4 37.6
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.8% 38.8%
  • Sack Rate 5.1% 9.0%
  • Int Rate 1.5% 3.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.1% 18.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 47.8% 48.1%
  • NYPP 7.5 5.5



Rush


  • Rush Plays 30.2 26.2
  • RB YPR 4.1 4.4
  • Stuff Rate 25.6% 22.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 46.9% 42.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 45.9% 44.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.1 4.6




Game

  • All Snaps 63.6 63.9
  • Early Down Succ 50.6% 40.8%
  • Succ Rate 46.6% 40.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 49.1% 48.2%
  • Yards Per Play 5.8 5.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.3% 1.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.3 28.2
  • Run Ratio 47.3% 40.6%
  • Starting Field Pos 32.6 27.0
  • Game Control 8.0 -8.0
 
  • Points 31.3 19.4
Share This