Game Analysis
The Over was slightly below model threshold for a Best Bet so we are making OVER 42 LA/TB a Strong Opinion. There are also numerous situations that favor the Rams here, including a 77-29-3 ATS early season road underdog situation and a 28-62-3 ATS week 3 angle that applies to the Bucs. The lean is with the Rams plus the points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.3
44.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
35.7%
44.5%
-
Sack Rate
6.1%
2.9%
-
Int Rate
3.2%
0.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.1%
10.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
44.4%
28.8%
-
NYPP
5.6
5.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.0
30.0
-
RB YPR
3.1
3.1
-
Stuff Rate
22.7%
31.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.6%
45.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
23.3%
54.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.1
3.3
Game
-
All Snaps
60.3
74.0
-
Early Down Succ
42.6%
44.5%
-
Succ Rate
38.7%
43.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.0%
36.9%
-
Yards Per Play
4.4
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.0
26.1
-
Run Ratio
46.4%
40.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.0
23.3
-
Dominance Rating
-3.0
3.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
49.3
35.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.2%
46.9%
-
Sack Rate
2.9%
4.5%
-
Int Rate
4.1%
1.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.9%
16.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
31.2%
53.7%
-
NYPP
6.3
7.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.7
28.3
-
RB YPR
3.4
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
20.7%
24.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.8%
40.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
37.6%
25.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.5
3.3
Game
-
All Snaps
75.0
63.3
-
Early Down Succ
49.7%
48.1%
-
Succ Rate
45.9%
45.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
32.9%
47.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
24.6
27.8
-
Run Ratio
35.2%
45.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.0
29.5
-
Dominance Rating
-4.2
4.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Dominance Rating |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@SF |
0 – 28 L |
-12.6 |
27.0% /
45.7% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
5.7% /
0.0% |
3.2 /
4.9 |
37.5% /
37.2% |
20.8% /
32.6% |
2.8 /
3.5 |
61 /
78 |
35.7% /
40.4% |
31.1% /
41.0% |
29.0% /
35.2% |
3.0 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
39.3% /
55.1% |
31.4 /
24.4 |
| 2 |
SEA |
9 – 3 W |
2.9 |
39.4% /
37.8% |
9.1% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
6.5 |
29.6% /
33.3% |
25.9% /
45.8% |
2.4 /
2.8 |
60 /
61 |
40.9% /
37.5% |
35.0% /
36.1% |
41.4% /
44.8% |
4.8 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
3.3% |
45.0% /
39.3% |
23.7 /
17.0 |
| 3 |
@TB |
37 – 32 W |
0.7 |
40.7% /
50.0% |
3.7% /
3.3% |
3.8% /
1.7% |
6.8 /
6.5 |
57.6% /
65.2% |
21.2% /
17.4% |
4.2 /
3.7 |
60 /
83 |
51.1% /
55.6% |
50.0% /
54.2% |
43.4% /
30.9% |
5.3 /
5.7 |
1.7% /
1.2% |
55.0% /
27.7% |
28.9 /
28.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Dominance Rating |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@ATL |
31 – 24 W |
4.7 |
57.6% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
7.1% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
7.7 |
28.1% /
30.4% |
21.9% /
30.4% |
2.9 /
2.3 |
65 /
65 |
51.0% /
50.0% |
43.1% /
43.1% |
48.3% /
43.2% |
5.7 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.2% /
35.4% |
23.8 /
30.8 |
| 2 |
@ARI |
7 – 40 L |
-16.6 |
40.0% /
50.0% |
5.5% /
2.8% |
7.7% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
8.8 |
40.9% /
34.5% |
22.7% /
20.7% |
3.9 /
3.5 |
77 /
65 |
42.6% /
43.1% |
40.3% /
43.1% |
19.5% /
55.0% |
4.0 /
6.4 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
28.6% /
44.6% |
25.7 /
28.8 |
| 3 |
LA |
32 – 37 L |
-0.7 |
50.0% /
40.7% |
3.3% /
3.7% |
1.7% /
3.8% |
6.5 /
6.8 |
65.2% /
57.6% |
17.4% /
21.2% |
3.7 /
4.2 |
83 /
60 |
55.6% /
51.1% |
54.2% /
50.0% |
30.9% /
43.4% |
5.7 /
5.3 |
1.2% /
1.7% |
27.7% /
55.0% |
28.5 /
28.9 |
Los Angeles Rams
@ 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers