Game Analysis

SEATTLE (-5.5) vs LA Rams

· Seattle’s offense finished 11th in market ratings at the end of last season and I think there’s pretty good reason to believe they can be borderline top 10 again.

· Seahawks offensive coordinator Shane Waldron likely spent all offseason perfecting his 11 personnel packages that he used during his time with McVay in LA after Seattle brought in first-round draft pick WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to line up alongside Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf.

· The Rams lost 7 of their top 8 in snaps on defense from last season, most notably Bobby Wagner at LB and 3-time All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey, who finished 9th in coverage grade by PFF last season.

· Aaron Donald might be the best defensive player in the history of the sport and no one else on this defense was drafted in the first or second round. Safety John Johnson is likely the only player on this Los Angeles defense other than Donald to be above replacement level.

· The Rams offense only has two players above replacement level as well with Cooper Kupp out. Matthew Stafford is worth 4.3 points above backup rookie QB Stetson Bennett according to our metrics. RT Rob Havenstein is worth about a half point after ranking 39th in pass-blocking efficiency last season. This Los Angeles offense is below average without Kupp even with Sean McVay calling plays for Stafford.

· However, it looks like Seattle’s defense could be missing defensive back starters CB Devon Witherspoon and S Jamal Adams. Those two are worth about a point combined.

· The Seahawks bringing back LB Bobby Wagner is an upgrade from Cody Barton. Wagner was PFF’s 6th highest-graded defender in the NFL last season with 50 run stops, only a 3% missed tackle rate, and 20 pressures on 113 pass-rushing snaps.

· Seattle lost interior defender Quinton Jefferson, who ranked 14th last season with 42 pressures. However, they replaced Jefferson with interior defender Dre’Mont Jones from Denver, who had 45 pressures in 4 fewer games than Jefferson.

· Our model favors the Seahawks by 4.3 points with a predicted total of 47.8 points.