Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Under (49.5) – LA Rams at SAN FRANCISCO

Lean – LA Rams (+3 -115)

• The 49ers’ offense calls the 5th-most 2-WR sets but the heavier personnel will likely not work as well on Thursday night as the Rams yppp allowed versus 2-WR formations is a league-best 75% of the yppp allowed versus lighter personnel.
• San Francisco’s offense is averaging 4.8 yards per rush (6th) but starting RB Christian McCaffrey is out, backup Jordan Mason is out, and third-string Isaac Guerendo is nursing a foot sprain. Los Angeles has the 3rd-rated rush defense according to our metrics and they will contain whichever running back the 49ers trot out onto the field.
• Rams’ edge defender Jared Verse ranks 8th in pass-rushing efficiency and he will sack Brock Purdy at least once while lined up across from backup LT Jaylon Moore, who is subbing in for injured All-Pro LT Trent Williams.
• Matthew Stafford averaged 13.9 yppp out of empty formation in last week’s win over the Bills. Going to empty demonstrates that Sean McVay is finally comfortable with the offensive line after it was musical chairs for the first few months of the season. Stafford only averaged 2.2 attempts per game out of empty formation prior to last week’s 7 attempts.
• Stafford threw 43% of his attempts between 11 and 19 air yards last week but he will not be able to attack the intermediate areas this week with All-Pro LB Fred Warner lurking with his running mate starting LG Dre Greenlaw, who is making his season debut.
• Rams’ WR Cooper Kupp is averaging 2.51 yards per route run in the slot (2nd) but he will be contained on the inside by CB Deommodore Lenoir, who is conceding just 1.08 yards per cover snap in the slot (10th).
• Our model favors the Niners by just 0.9 points, with matchups taken into account, with a predicted total of only 42.4 points.

The Under is a 2-Star Best Bet at 48.5 points or more and 1-Star down to 47.5 points.