Game Analysis

Note: The total has dropped from 44 to 42.5 since I released the Under early in the week. I still like Under 42.5.

0.5 Units – Under (44) – Rams at PHILADELPHIA

Lean – LA Rams (-3.5)

The Eagles’ new offense is not working for them so far this season, as they rank #19 in EPA per play and #28 in success rate despite facing 3 worse than average defensive teams. It’s likely going to get worse for Philly’s attack in this game playing without their best wide receiver and facing a good Rams defense that ranks #8 in both EPA and success. Don’t be fooled by the 30 points that they gave up in Denver last Sunday night, as the Broncos had a -3.0 total EPA and a very poor 36.7% success rate in that game.

Philadelphia will be likely be without their two best pass-catchers, as #1 WR Devonta Smith (hamstring) and TE Dallas Goedert (MCL sprain) are both expected to miss this game. Backup veteran WR Hollywood Brown has also missed practices this week and may be out. That would leave Dontayvion Wicks, who’s been below average over this career, rookie Makai Lemon, who’s averaged just 4.2 yards on his 9 targets, and Darius Cooper, who has only been targeted 14 times in his career (8.4 ypt).

Quarterback Jalen Hurts has averaged +0.70 expected points added since 2022 when targeting wide receivers, but that number plummets to +0.46 EPA per target on 295 attempts when not targeting elite receivers Smith and former teammate A.J. Brown.

Dallas Goedert has averaged 8.9 yards per target since the 2021 season (the year Hurts became the full-time starter at QB), which is significantly better than what can be expected from 36-year-old Zach Ertz, who has averaged just 6.3 yards on 596 targets since 2019, and Johnny Mundt, who has a career average of 6.3 ypt. I expect the Eagles to run the ball more than they’ve been running it, which would keep the clock running more often.

The Rams may also run the ball more than normal against an Eagles’ defense that ranks 27th in EPA per run allowed and 30th in run success rate. Overall, the Philly defense has been worse than average so far this season (1.2 points worse than average based on predictive metrics and adjusted for opposing offenses and scoring conditions), and I rate that unit slightly worse than average with star LB Zack Baun expected to miss this game with a concussion that he sustained on Monday night (it’s unlikely for a player that got concussed on Monday to play on Sunday).

The Rams’ offense hasn’t been nearly as good as it was last season, as they rank #15 in EPA per play and #12 in success rate, but getting Puka Nacu back will help.

My ratings favor the Rams by 6 points with a total of 41.7 points. I’ll lean with LA -3.5 but I’m playing the Under for 0.5 units based on a 175-92-5 Under situation. The Under is a 0.5 Unit play at 42 points or more.