Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (43.5) – PHILADELPHIA (-6) vs LA Rams

Strong Opinion – Saquon Barkley Over 22.5 carries (-115) to -125

• We had a Best Bet on Over 49.5 in week 12 when these teams met at SoFi Stadium and there were 57 total points scored. The Eagles averaged 0.32 EPA/play which was the most the Rams defense allowed all season.
• Our bet did not get closing line value on the game in part because Los Angeles starting RT Rob Havenstein did not suit up. Backup right tackle Warren McClendon is a major downgrade from Havenstein. McClendon went on to surrender 2 sacks in that game while Havenstein allowed just 3 sacks all year.
• The total on the game closed 48.5. Let’s assume that is the true price ignoring, for now, that 57 points were scored and Havenstein is back.
• To get to the price on this game being 43.5, you’d have to believe the scoring conditions are 5 points worse than they were in week 12.
• There are two ways the weather could go on Sunday evening in Philadelphia. Below-average winds and grass would make the scoring conditions 2.5 points worse than they were in SoFi Stadium according to our numbers.
• The other option is it snows as there is about a 50% chance of snow at some point in the game as of Wednesday night. Controlling for all other factors like wind and field surface, snow adds about a point to scoring according to our numbers because it causes defenders to slip in pass rush and coverage. The game ends up playing out much like the Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl or Philadelphia’s week 1 game in Brazil when the field benefits the offense. Those games had 73 and 63 total points respectively.
• Unless the temperature rises notably from the projections and this game is played in rain, I think the true price for this total has to be above 45 given the closing number in week 12 plus Havenstein starting.
• Additionally, the Rams’ offense has gotten back starting tight end Tyler Higbee since the last game versus the Eagles. Higbee was limited to just 12 snaps last week but had 5 receptions for 53 yards before suffering a chest injury that knocked him out of the game. Sean McVay expects Higbee to play on Sunday afternoon and he’s worth at least 0.3 points over backup TE Colby Parkinson.
• Philadelphia RB Saquon Barkley rushed for 255 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries against the Rams, ranking 9th-most in a game in NFL history. Los Angeles encourages opponents to run, ranking 28th in average yards before contact allowed to opposing RBs, and the Rams normally get away with it because passing is more efficient, but the strategy doesn’t work against an Eagles’ offensive line that has blocked for the most average yards before contact in the NFL.
• The Rams are allowing 0.28 EPA/target to opposing WRs (21st) and rank 32nd in yards allowed to outside WRs. Los Angeles will struggle with wide receiver AJ Brown, who has a 62% success rate (4th) and 1007 receiving yards when lined up outside (4th).
• Matthew Stafford has a 3.6% turnover-worthy play rate (3rd-highest) and Jalen Hurts has a 3.4% turnover-worthy play rate (7th-highest). That could lead to a Pick-six in this game.
• Our model favors the Eagles by 0.4 points with a predicted total of 46.8 points. I’m passing on the Rams because Philly applies to a 71-16-1 ATS playoff home team situation and the Rams apply to an 8-38 ATS road playoff situation. I can also see an emotional letdown from Los Angeles after last week’s highly emotional week on and off the field.

The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 44 or less.

Strong Opinion – Saquon Barkley Over 22.5 carries (-115) to -125

• It will be snowing for this game. I believe the Eagles will lean into their advantage at the line of scrimmage and the ground game because of the snow.
• Barkley has gone over this prop in 8 of 17 games with two landing 22 and one landing 23.
• Barkley nearly set the NFL record for rushing yards in the last game versus the Rams so I expect the gameplan is built around him.
• Barkley had 26 carries in the last game versus the Rams.
• Los Angeles ranks 20th in rush success rate allowed but does not generally allow explosive runs (aside from that first Philly game).
• This means Saquon is likely to get a ton of 5-yard carries because the Rams defense is built around allowing the run on early downs and putting a roof on explosives.
• Los Angeles tries to force the opponent into long drives and the Eagles don’t mind long drives pounding the rock.
• Saquon rested week 18 with a shot at the all-time rushing record so the Eagles are incentivized to give him a ton of work in the playoffs to justify the decision to rest him. I’m making a case for less Gainwell than usual here.
• Barkey had 25 carries last week.
• The Eagles are also favored again, which makes it more likely they will have a lead in the 4th quarter to run out the clock.