Game Analysis
Lean – MINNESOTA (-2.5) over Los Angeles Rams
This will be a battle between the two top NFC teams both ranked top 5 in net yards per play. One of the Rams only weaknesses is their rush defense, which ranks 27th in my metrics, but Minnesota may struggle to exploit the matchup. The Vikings still haven’t recovered from losing Dalvin Cook as all other runners average just 3.6 yards per rush this season. Minnesota could also be without run blocking specialist right tackle Mike Remmers for the second straight game and they did not fare well on the ground without him last week gaining 3.3 ypr. Michael Brockers has the 4th-best run stop percentage in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus and I expect him to have a big day on the Rams defensive line if Remmers does not suit up.
The Vikings pass defense struggled last week without Everson Griffen bringing pressure off the edge, sacking Kirk Cousins only once in 46 dropbacks. Griffen is tied for 3rd in the league with 10 sacks and it looks like he will return this week against a Los Angeles offense averaging 6.3 yppl (2nd). The Rams run the ball a lot of set up Jared Goff’s play-action deep passes but Minnesota’s rush defense ranks 21st in my metrics, which is a match-up that favors the Vikings.
There’s not really any line value in this game and I see match-ups that favor each side. However, Minnesota applies to a 197-119-4 ATS situation and the Rams are due for a letdown after winning their last 3 games by an average of 31 points. Road teams that won their last two or more games by 24 points or more are just 13-33-1 ATS and I’ll lean with Minnesota at -2 ½ points or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.0
36.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.5%
38.0%
-
Sack Rate
4.4%
8.8%
-
Int Rate
1.2%
4.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.4%
16.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
53.8%
44.2%
-
NYPP
8.2
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
32.4
26.8
-
RB YPR
4.0
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
26.4%
24.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.0%
40.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
47.6%
41.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
65.4
63.0
-
Early Down Succ
49.0%
40.4%
-
Succ Rate
46.2%
39.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
51.7%
46.0%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.4%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.1
28.1
-
Run Ratio
49.8%
42.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
32.7
28.8
-
Game Control
8.2
-8.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.1
38.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.0%
43.0%
-
Sack Rate
3.1%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
1.7%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.0%
16.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.7%
33.7%
-
NYPP
7.2
5.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.1
24.6
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
26.0%
20.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.4%
39.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.5%
18.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.3
Game
-
All Snaps
66.2
63.3
-
Early Down Succ
49.1%
45.7%
-
Succ Rate
46.6%
42.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.7%
30.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
4.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.2
27.2
-
Run Ratio
46.7%
38.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.2
28.5
-
Game Control
3.1
-3.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
IND |
46 – 9 W |
21.3 |
54.8% /
28.0% |
3.2% /
16.0% |
0.0% /
9.5% |
10.0 /
6.0 |
22.5% /
32.0% |
22.5% /
28.0% |
1.7 /
3.0 |
71 /
50 |
43.5% /
40.5% |
36.6% /
30.0% |
52.7% /
81.4% |
5.3 /
4.5 |
1.4% /
2.0% |
56.3% /
50.0% |
35.8 /
23.1 |
| 2 |
WAS |
20 – 27 L |
-4.5 |
39.3% /
48.3% |
7.1% /
6.9% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
8.6 /
5.4 |
59.1% /
46.2% |
13.6% /
17.9% |
4.2 /
5.9 |
50 /
68 |
51.4% /
49.1% |
48.0% /
47.1% |
61.9% /
46.2% |
6.7 /
5.7 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
44.0% /
57.4% |
22.4 /
34.5 |
| 3 |
@SF |
41 – 39 W |
8.5 |
64.3% /
46.3% |
0.0% /
9.8% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
10.4 /
7.5 |
51.5% /
51.5% |
30.3% /
27.3% |
3.8 /
3.4 |
61 /
74 |
57.4% /
47.2% |
57.4% /
48.6% |
55.4% /
50.8% |
6.9 /
5.7 |
3.3% /
1.4% |
54.1% /
44.6% |
36.1 /
36.1 |
| 4 |
@DAL |
35 – 30 W |
-2.3 |
48.6% /
35.1% |
2.7% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
6.6 /
6.8 |
65.6% /
55.6% |
21.9% /
14.8% |
5.3 /
7.0 |
69 /
64 |
63.0% /
41.7% |
56.5% /
43.8% |
51.6% /
52.3% |
6.0 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
46.4% /
42.2% |
34.8 /
22.4 |
| 5 |
SEA |
10 – 16 L |
0.8 |
35.4% /
45.0% |
4.2% /
7.5% |
4.3% /
5.4% |
5.7 /
4.5 |
40.9% /
19.2% |
45.5% /
23.1% |
4.5 /
2.4 |
70 /
66 |
33.3% /
31.3% |
37.1% /
34.8% |
44.3% /
8.7% |
5.4 /
3.7 |
4.3% /
0.0% |
31.4% /
39.4% |
29.2 /
35.2 |
| 6 |
@JAC |
27 – 17 W |
5.1 |
37.5% /
37.5% |
12.5% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
4.5 /
5.5 |
64.7% /
42.3% |
20.6% /
30.8% |
4.2 /
6.5 |
58 /
66 |
65.9% /
42.0% |
53.4% /
39.4% |
35.5% /
54.2% |
4.3 /
5.9 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
58.6% /
39.4% |
30.5 /
25.3 |
| 7 |
ARI |
33 – 0 W |
16.0 |
42.1% /
28.6% |
2.6% /
8.6% |
2.7% /
6.3% |
6.0 /
4.8 |
48.8% /
25.0% |
14.6% /
41.7% |
4.8 /
2.1 |
79 /
47 |
39.7% /
27.3% |
45.6% /
27.7% |
29.1% /
35.8% |
5.4 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.9% /
25.5% |
33.8 /
26.0 |
| 9 |
@NYG |
51 – 17 W |
19.5 |
54.5% /
42.5% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
14.1 /
5.2 |
37.5% /
59.3% |
40.0% /
11.1% |
4.1 /
4.1 |
62 /
67 |
44.7% /
51.0% |
43.5% /
49.3% |
71.3% /
38.1% |
7.6 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
64.5% /
40.3% |
40.8 /
27.0 |
| 10 |
HOU |
33 – 7 W |
9.5 |
41.5% /
30.8% |
7.3% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
5.6% |
8.3 /
5.0 |
32.1% /
34.6% |
28.6% /
26.9% |
3.8 /
3.5 |
69 /
65 |
42.6% /
34.0% |
37.7% /
32.3% |
63.9% /
46.8% |
6.5 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
40.6% /
40.0% |
31.2 /
29.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NO |
29 – 19 W |
6.6 |
63.6% /
60.5% |
3.0% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.3 /
7.5 |
27.3% /
28.6% |
33.3% /
14.3% |
4.0 /
2.9 |
66 /
59 |
44.7% /
52.1% |
45.5% /
49.2% |
68.0% /
29.9% |
7.2 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
35.6% |
24.9 /
22.4 |
| 2 |
@PIT |
9 – 26 L |
-9.3 |
32.5% /
40.5% |
5.0% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.7 /
6.3 |
50.0% /
41.2% |
25.0% /
20.6% |
4.6 /
3.1 |
60 /
71 |
42.9% /
48.1% |
38.3% /
40.8% |
45.1% /
34.1% |
4.0 /
4.7 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
47.9% |
23.9 /
31.8 |
| 3 |
TB |
34 – 17 W |
13.1 |
63.6% /
57.1% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
11.2 /
7.5 |
37.5% /
44.4% |
12.5% /
11.1% |
3.2 /
2.9 |
73 /
51 |
52.7% /
60.0% |
49.3% /
54.9% |
45.3% /
16.7% |
6.8 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.8% /
17.6% |
27.3 /
24.8 |
| 4 |
DET |
7 – 14 L |
-2.8 |
40.6% /
40.5% |
6.3% /
16.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
4.2 |
63.6% /
32.4% |
9.1% /
29.4% |
4.0 /
2.9 |
54 /
71 |
55.8% /
43.4% |
50.0% /
36.6% |
42.3% /
31.1% |
5.3 /
3.6 |
5.6% /
0.0% |
40.7% /
47.9% |
25.2 /
30.0 |
| 5 |
@CHI |
20 – 17 W |
0.9 |
50.0% /
37.0% |
11.1% /
3.7% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
3.9 /
5.9 |
35.5% /
48.3% |
25.8% /
13.8% |
5.1 /
4.0 |
67 /
56 |
44.2% /
46.5% |
43.3% /
42.9% |
30.3% /
34.7% |
4.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
46.3% /
51.8% |
30.9 /
26.6 |
| 6 |
GB |
23 – 10 W |
5.9 |
44.7% /
39.0% |
0.0% /
9.8% |
2.6% /
8.1% |
6.3 /
3.8 |
35.3% /
20.8% |
41.2% /
29.2% |
3.3 /
3.0 |
72 /
65 |
43.9% /
33.3% |
40.3% /
32.3% |
46.0% /
11.5% |
4.9 /
3.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
47.2% /
36.9% |
30.2 /
30.1 |
| 7 |
BAL |
24 – 16 W |
5.1 |
54.8% /
36.4% |
0.0% /
11.4% |
3.2% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
3.3 |
39.4% /
40.0% |
27.3% /
35.0% |
5.1 /
3.2 |
64 /
64 |
46.9% /
36.2% |
46.9% /
37.5% |
26.3% /
29.8% |
5.6 /
3.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.6% /
31.3% |
33.2 /
25.4 |
| 8 |
@CLE |
33 – 16 W |
1.9 |
52.3% /
29.7% |
2.3% /
8.1% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
4.4 |
41.2% /
54.5% |
29.4% /
9.1% |
2.6 /
5.2 |
78 /
59 |
50.0% /
42.2% |
47.4% /
39.0% |
28.8% /
41.3% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
3.4% |
43.6% /
37.3% |
32.8 /
31.2 |
| 10 |
@WAS |
38 – 30 W |
6.2 |
65.5% /
45.7% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
6.9% /
2.2% |
10.5 /
6.8 |
51.5% /
46.4% |
30.3% /
21.4% |
3.2 /
2.9 |
62 /
74 |
60.9% /
49.1% |
58.1% /
45.9% |
52.2% /
43.0% |
6.6 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.2% /
37.8% |
34.6 /
34.1 |
Los Angeles Rams
@ 
Minnesota Vikings