Los Angeles Rams @ Miami Dolphins Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – MIAMI (+3.5) over LA Rams

Tua Tagovailoa will make his first start for Miami this week. If Tagovailoa was better than Ryan Fitzpatrick, then I think the Dolphins would’ve probably started him in week 1 and Fitzpatrick certainly didn’t do anything to lose his job. This seems like a case where Miami knew they had to see Tagovailoa play to make sure they don’t need to use some of next year’s draft capital on a quarterback. I think it is the correct decision for the Dolphins but we are downgrading Miami’s offense by one point. The Dolphins likely would’ve been a best bet with Fitzpatrick at the helm but they’re still providing value here due to their underrated defense.

CB Byron Jones was injured early in week 2 and has only played three full games this season. Miami’s defense ranks 7th in contested target percentage in those games and Jones is allowing just 0.77 yards per cover snap and has yet to concede a touchdown. Jones playing opposite of Xavien Howard makes one of the best cornerback tandems in the NFL and the Dolphins have allowed just 3.8 yards per pass play with both CBs healthy against the Patriots, 49ers, and Jets.

Miami’s interior offensive line is solid as center Ted Karras and guards Solomon Kindley and Ereck Flowers have surrendered just 21 pressures all season. They should do a decent job limiting Aaron Donald this week. This game is going to come down to whether or not Tagovailoa can give similar production to Fitzpatrick. Rookie QBs are typically good bets in their first few starts before the other teams get some film on them and our model favors the Rams by just 0.3 points, with a predicted total of 44.7 points. Miami is a Strong Opinion at +3.5 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Rams
Dolphins

LOS

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 31.3 40.7
Succ Pass Plays 61.0% 51.9%
Sack Rate 4.2% 6.0%
Int Rate 2.1% 2.6%
Deep Pass Rate 17.8% 13.2%
Big Pass Yards 50.9% 34.7%
NYPP 8.9 6.3

Rush

Rush Plays 37.0 24.7
RB YPR 4.7 4.9
Stuff Rate 14.7% 8.5%
Succ Rush Plays 61.7% 64.7%
Big Rush Yards 40.8% 34.0%
Yards Per Rush 4.6 4.8

Game

All Snaps 68.3 65.3
Early Down Succ 62.8% 59.9%
Succ Rate 61.1% 56.7%
Big Yards Rate 47.1% 35.0%
Yards Per Play 6.6 5.7
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 1.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.8 25.2
Run Ratio 54.1% 37.7%
Starting Field Pos 29.2 29.7
Game Control 1.3 -1.3

Points 29.7 23.7

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	DAL	20 – 17 W	3.4	56.3% / 52.4%	3.1% / 7.1%	3.2% / 0.0%	8.4 / 5.8	57.5% / 59.3%	12.5% / 11.1%	3.8 / 5.0	72 / 69	57.7% / 63.0%	56.9% / 55.1%	40.3% / 30.8%	5.9 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	55.6% / 39.1%	29.0 / 27.1
2	@PHI	37 – 19 W	9.4	67.9% / 46.5%	3.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 4.7%	9.2 / 5.6	59.0% / 73.1%	12.8% / 0.0%	4.9 / 4.7	67 / 69	65.4% / 57.1%	62.7% / 56.5%	52.8% / 17.1%	6.7 / 5.3	1.5% / 1.4%	58.2% / 37.7%	31.6 / 29.1
3	@BUF	32 – 35 L	-8.9	58.8% / 56.8%	5.9% / 10.8%	3.1% / 3.0%	9.1 / 7.4	68.8% / 61.9%	18.8% / 14.3%	5.2 / 4.8	66 / 58	65.5% / 59.6%	63.6% / 58.6%	48.3% / 57.1%	7.2 / 6.5	1.5% / 1.7%	48.5% / 36.2%	27.0 / 32.9

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NE	11 – 21 L	-5.7	51.6% / 61.9%	3.2% / 9.5%	10.0% / 0.0%	5.9 / 6.7	51.9% / 66.7%	18.5% / 11.9%	3.2 / 5.2	58 / 63	55.6% / 68.6%	51.7% / 65.1%	23.4% / 33.1%	4.6 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.6%	46.6% / 66.7%	20.8 / 29.4
2	BUF	28 – 31 L	-4.2	48.0% / 61.1%	6.0% / 2.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.2 / 11.5	63.6% / 39.1%	18.2% / 17.4%	4.5 / 4.8	72 / 59	56.9% / 55.3%	52.8% / 52.5%	29.5% / 70.0%	5.7 / 8.9	0.0% / 1.7%	30.6% / 39.0%	26.9 / 20.4
3	@JAC	31 – 13 W	12.9	66.7% / 54.3%	4.8% / 8.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	7.4 / 5.3	47.2% / 52.9%	27.8% / 5.9%	3.8 / 4.2	57 / 63	54.8% / 62.0%	54.4% / 54.0%	31.0% / 19.2%	5.2 / 5.0	0.0% / 1.6%	63.2% / 27.0%	35.8 / 23.5

Los Angeles Rams @

Miami Dolphins

Sun, Nov 1

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis