Game Analysis

LA Chargers (-6.5) vs LA Rams

· The Rams scored 51 points last week, but we shouldn’t get too excited about the Baker Mayfield-Sean McVay combination yet. The Rams only had 388 yards of offense which projected to about half of the points they ultimately scored. The Rams benefited from a +4 turnover margin, although scoring on every possession is still impressive.

· Mayfield was just one of two quarterbacks last week with an average depth of target below 5 yards and he is still averaging 5.6 yppp even after last week’s game.

· The Chargers had 7 sacks last week and the Rams rank 30th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Rams tight end Tyler Higbee is the only remaining starting receiver for the Rams from week 1. Higbee had 94 yards and two touchdowns last week and I expect him to be a major part of the game plan again.

· The Chargers are surrendering 8.7 yards per target to tight ends (30th) and safety Derwin James is likely out with a concussion.

· Chargers RB Austin Ekeler is having a great season as he is the main reason the Chargers currently rank 14th in EPA/rush despite the offensive line blocking for only 0.9 yards per attempt before contact (31st).

· The Rams were conceding only a 34% success rate to opponents on the ground before Aaron Donald went out but are allowing a 46% rush success rate without Donald.

· Ekeler is gaining 1.59 yards per route run (3rd) and he will find room in the receiving game as the Rams are surrendering 6.4 yards per target to opposing running backs (29th).

· Chargers WR Mike Williams has 6 deep receptions despite missing nearly five full games and he will battle downfield with CB Jalen Ramsey, who ranks 16th in coverage grade by PFF.

· Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen linked up for 104 yards last week, but Rams nickelback Cobie Durant is coming off his best game of the season. Durant conceded only 2 yards from 20 cover snaps in the slot last week and had an interception.

· Sofi Stadium is home to both of these teams but the crowd will be mostly Chargers’ season ticket holders and I’m guessing that Rams fans are not as likely to snap up extra tickets as they might if their team was good. In the Lakers-Clippers games in the NBA the home court advantage is about half as much as normal and I’m assigning just 0.7 points for home crowd advantage in this game.

· Our model favors the Chargers by 5.1 points, with a predicted total of 43.4 points, but the Chargers apply to a 57-18-2 ATS momentum situation (that angle applies to both home and road teams so it is not home team specific).