Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – Under (43) KANSAS CITY (-16) vs LA Rams

· This Rams offense is in absolute shambles. The offensive line ranks last in pass blocking efficiency as twelve different linemen have played at least 60 snaps.

· Los Angeles has a league-low 30.2% rush success rate. The next worst team has a 35.1% rush success rate. The gap between the Rams rush offense and 31st is the same as the gap between 31st and 20th.

· The Rams were averaging only 16.4 points per game with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp on the field this season. Now they have neither.

· Kupp was gaining 2.52 yards per route run in the slot and could be worth 2 points or more to the Los Angeles offense.

· WRs Allen Robinson, Van Jefferson and Ben Skowronek are all averaging less than a yard per route run. Los Angeles wide receiver Tutu Atwell had a 62-yard touchdown last game but didn’t end up running another route. They certainly can’t count on an explosive play from Atwell most weeks.

· Stafford is around 5 points better than undrafted quarterback Bryce Perkins. This Rams offense could be one of the worst to take the field in recent memory.

· Patrick Mahomes averaged 10.3 air yards per attempt last week, his most since week 13 of 2020. However, Mahomes will have to hit his checkdowns as this Los Angeles defense loves to sit back and keep everything in front of them.

· The Rams have faced an average time to throw of 2.38 seconds in 2022, the only defense under 2.60 seconds. Quarterbacks are using the quick game to take advantage of the Los Angeles soft coverage. This results in longer drives.

· I’m not worried about Kansas City’s offense extending the lead too far here. Teams favored by at least two touchdowns when the total is 44 or less are 79-99-3 ATS indicating they take the foot off the gas and go conservative down the stretch.

· Our model favors the Chiefs by 13.6 points, with a predicted total of 38.5 points, and the Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 42 points or more.