Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *GREEN BAY (-4) over LA Rams

· I’ve been waiting all week to confirm Matthew Stafford was going to be out after being diagnosed with a UCL sprain in his throwing thumb because he is a tough son of a gun. It will be Brett Rypien under center for the Rams and he is averaging 5.1 yppp for his career.

· Los Angeles ranks 27th in pass blocking efficiency this season and Sean McVay’s offense can’t function when they are overwhelmed up front. Stafford is averaging only 5.7 yppp in two games versus defenses ranked top 10 in pressure rate (DAL & CIN) and 7.4 yppp in all other weeks. Green Bay’s defense has a 39.5% pressure rate (7th-highest).

· Rams RT Rob Havenstein ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency but he is likely out, which leaves backup Joe Noteboom to struggle across from edge defender Rashan Gary, who has a 22% pressure rate (3rd-highest) and just agreed to a $107 million extension.

· An underrated part of Stafford’s game this season is his 1.9% PFF turnover-worthy play rate (2nd-lowest), but I do not expect Rypien to protect the ball nearly as well in collapsing pockets on Sunday and he will likely throw a couple of interceptions. Rypien has a 5.7% interception rate since coming into the NFL in 2020.

· The Rams have a 45.5% rush success rate (4th) but the Packers’ run defense has improved from some of the previous iterations under coordinator Joe Barry. The Vikings gained only 0.4 yards per contact on carries in Green Bay last week.

· Jordan Love’s yards per attempt against zone coverage is 47% higher than his yards per attempt versus man and he has a favorable matchup this week as the Los Angeles defense has an 83.7% zone rate (4th-highest).

· Dak Prescott had a season-low 21.1% pressure rate last week against the Rams and Love should be kept clean in this game as well. Green Bay’s offensive line ranks 3rd in pass-blocking efficiency in the 5 weeks with guard Elgton Jenkins on the field. Jenkins is conceding a 3.8% pressure rate compared to backup Royce Newman’s 8.3% pressure rate allowed.

· Our model favors the Packers by 8.1 points, with a predicted total of 39.2 points.

The Packers are a 1-Star Best Bet at -5 or less.