Game Analysis
Lean – Los Angeles (-1) over GREEN BAY
Green Bay is 26-6 at Lambeau Field after week 10 of the season when hosting teams that play in domes and it looks like the temperature will be in the upper 30s on Sunday, but Matthew Stafford has plenty of familiarity with the environment having played in the Packers’ division for a decade.
Cooper Kupp is averaging 3.06 yards per route run (2nd) but he will be limited by nickelback Chandon Sullivan, who is conceding only 0.80 yards per slot cover snap (4th).
All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari has yet to suit up for the Packers, but backup Elgton Jenkins was conceding just 1.5 pressures per game. However, Jenkins tore his ACL and his backup Yosh Nijman will be tasked with defending Aaron Rodgers’ blindside against edge defender Von Miller, who ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency and should be fully implemented into the Los Angeles defense following the bye week.
Jalen Ramsey shadowed Davante Adams in the Division Round of the playoffs last season and Adams averaged just 6.6 yards per target. I could see another frustrating game for Adams if DC Raheem Morris deploys his All-Pro cornerback in shadow coverage again.
Our model favors the Rams by 0.9 points, with a predicted total of 47.9 points, but I’ll lean with Los Angeles based on the matchups.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.20
39.80
-
Succ Pass Plays
53.1%
49.0%
-
Sack Rate
3.9%
7.3%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
3.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.9%
13.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
44.7%
32.5%
-
NYPP
7.57
6.07
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.20
26.00
-
RB YPR
4.07
3.90
-
Stuff Rate
24.0%
25.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.1%
51.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.3%
41.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.05
4.05
Game
-
All Snaps
62.40
65.80
-
Early Down Succ
56.3%
53.9%
-
Succ Rate
52.7%
50.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.1%
35.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.21
5.27
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.3%
0.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.67
28.37
-
Run Ratio
38.8%
39.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.39
26.97
-
Game Control
2.48
-2.48
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.55
37.27
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.6%
47.8%
-
Sack Rate
5.6%
6.3%
-
Int Rate
1.4%
2.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.4%
19.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.3%
35.3%
-
NYPP
6.84
5.72
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.64
24.00
-
RB YPR
4.11
3.90
-
Stuff Rate
20.2%
20.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.9%
57.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
33.3%
37.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.21
4.39
Game
-
All Snaps
61.18
61.27
-
Early Down Succ
50.5%
54.5%
-
Succ Rate
48.1%
51.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.3%
36.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.74
5.20
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.82
27.79
-
Run Ratio
41.9%
39.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
0.43
-0.43
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CHI |
34 – 14 W |
10.93 |
55.6% /
55.8% |
3.7% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
11.56 /
4.37 |
47.8% /
61.5% |
34.8% /
26.9% |
3.22 /
5.15 |
50 /
69 |
51.4% /
66.0% |
52.0% /
58.0% |
44.3% /
18.6% |
7.72 /
4.67 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
46.0% /
37.7% |
32.44 /
28.38 |
| 2 |
@IND |
27 – 24 W |
3.60 |
58.1% /
46.2% |
3.2% /
7.7% |
3.3% /
5.6% |
8.71 /
6.28 |
50.0% /
53.8% |
21.4% /
23.1% |
3.61 /
4.19 |
59 /
65 |
59.2% /
51.9% |
54.2% /
49.2% |
40.6% /
36.2% |
6.29 /
5.45 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
47.5% /
40.0% |
24.40 /
29.70 |
| 3 |
TB |
34 – 24 W |
8.05 |
56.4% /
55.2% |
2.6% /
5.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.49 /
7.09 |
45.8% /
46.2% |
29.2% /
23.1% |
3.17 /
2.69 |
63 /
71 |
48.9% /
58.5% |
52.4% /
53.5% |
53.9% /
32.8% |
6.46 /
6.28 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.1% /
18.3% |
33.80 /
21.00 |
| 4 |
ARZ |
20 – 37 L |
-10.09 |
56.1% /
62.9% |
0.0% /
8.6% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
6.83 /
7.11 |
69.6% /
57.5% |
17.4% /
27.5% |
5.26 /
5.40 |
64 /
75 |
63.5% /
60.7% |
60.9% /
60.0% |
29.4% /
49.4% |
6.27 /
6.20 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
35.9% /
53.3% |
28.50 /
25.50 |
| 5 |
@SEA |
26 – 17 W |
1.13 |
55.3% /
51.4% |
2.6% /
5.7% |
2.7% /
6.1% |
9.42 /
7.49 |
44.8% /
56.0% |
37.9% /
12.0% |
4.07 /
3.68 |
67 /
60 |
56.4% /
58.3% |
50.7% /
53.3% |
57.8% /
44.8% |
7.10 /
5.90 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.3% /
41.7% |
25.42 /
23.58 |
| 6 |
@NYG |
38 – 11 W |
15.52 |
62.5% /
36.4% |
6.3% /
7.3% |
6.7% /
5.9% |
7.31 /
3.65 |
52.9% /
38.9% |
20.6% /
27.8% |
3.85 /
3.33 |
66 /
73 |
64.2% /
41.2% |
57.6% /
37.0% |
34.8% /
4.6% |
5.53 /
3.58 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
51.5% /
24.7% |
40.23 /
22.83 |
| 7 |
DET |
28 – 19 W |
-1.35 |
54.8% /
46.2% |
2.4% /
5.1% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
7.79 /
7.13 |
36.8% /
42.9% |
31.6% /
25.0% |
2.47 /
4.89 |
61 /
67 |
44.7% /
45.8% |
49.2% /
44.8% |
44.4% /
52.1% |
6.13 /
6.19 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.1% /
41.8% |
23.22 /
29.89 |
| 8 |
@HST |
38 – 22 W |
18.65 |
54.3% /
45.5% |
2.9% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
8.63 /
6.34 |
61.3% /
50.0% |
12.9% /
35.7% |
5.32 /
3.14 |
66 /
58 |
64.2% /
52.3% |
57.6% /
46.6% |
54.3% /
46.0% |
7.08 /
5.57 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.0% /
24.1% |
30.55 /
26.69 |
| 9 |
TEN |
16 – 28 L |
-9.58 |
43.4% /
40.0% |
9.4% /
10.0% |
4.2% /
3.7% |
4.77 /
4.17 |
52.4% /
53.8% |
19.0% /
19.2% |
4.48 /
2.65 |
74 /
56 |
52.8% /
51.3% |
45.9% /
46.4% |
27.1% /
11.8% |
4.69 /
3.46 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.4% /
46.4% |
20.91 /
36.55 |
| 10 |
@SF |
7 – 31 L |
-12.03 |
43.2% /
55.0% |
4.5% /
5.0% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
5.14 /
8.95 |
60.0% /
50.0% |
10.0% /
29.5% |
5.20 /
3.55 |
54 /
64 |
53.7% /
50.0% |
46.3% /
51.6% |
36.4% /
32.8% |
5.15 /
5.23 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
18.5% /
68.8% |
24.40 /
25.56 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NO |
3 – 38 L |
-15.26 |
35.1% /
61.9% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
5.7% /
0.0% |
5.03 /
7.19 |
20.0% /
53.8% |
13.3% /
23.1% |
2.87 /
4.38 |
52 /
60 |
35.1% /
56.3% |
30.8% /
56.7% |
25.8% /
36.0% |
4.40 /
5.37 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
65.0% |
22.78 /
36.44 |
| 2 |
DET |
35 – 17 W |
3.29 |
60.0% /
54.1% |
10.0% /
2.7% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
7.57 /
6.38 |
41.9% /
57.9% |
25.8% /
10.5% |
3.10 /
5.68 |
61 /
56 |
51.0% /
60.0% |
50.8% /
55.4% |
26.8% /
41.0% |
5.30 /
6.14 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
50.8% /
33.9% |
31.90 /
25.67 |
| 3 |
@SF |
30 – 28 W |
6.58 |
47.1% /
45.5% |
2.9% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
7.44 /
5.25 |
52.0% /
52.4% |
8.0% /
28.6% |
4.00 /
3.00 |
59 /
65 |
51.1% /
48.0% |
49.2% /
47.7% |
41.0% /
17.2% |
5.98 /
4.52 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
42.4% /
32.3% |
28.50 /
25.10 |
| 4 |
PIT |
27 – 17 W |
6.20 |
48.7% /
45.2% |
7.7% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
6.05 /
5.24 |
57.6% /
62.5% |
21.2% /
12.5% |
3.97 /
3.88 |
72 /
58 |
52.7% /
56.8% |
52.8% /
50.0% |
43.0% /
32.7% |
5.10 /
4.86 |
1.4% /
1.7% |
45.8% /
27.6% |
35.09 /
25.90 |
| 5 |
@CIN |
25 – 22 W |
1.94 |
43.9% /
48.8% |
4.9% /
7.3% |
2.6% /
5.3% |
8.12 /
6.44 |
36.4% /
62.5% |
31.8% /
25.0% |
6.05 /
4.29 |
63 /
65 |
44.0% /
59.6% |
41.3% /
53.8% |
63.3% /
39.1% |
7.40 /
5.65 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.9% /
36.9% |
32.08 /
29.92 |
| 6 |
@CHI |
24 – 14 W |
2.31 |
50.0% /
45.2% |
11.5% /
12.9% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
6.50 /
4.42 |
51.6% /
57.7% |
25.8% /
15.4% |
4.97 /
5.38 |
57 /
57 |
55.3% /
55.8% |
50.9% /
50.9% |
43.8% /
44.6% |
5.67 /
4.86 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.4% /
45.6% |
29.33 /
26.38 |
| 7 |
WAS |
10 – 24 L |
7.74 |
55.3% /
48.8% |
7.9% /
9.8% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
6.50 /
5.73 |
26.7% /
62.1% |
26.7% /
10.3% |
3.80 /
6.72 |
53 /
70 |
47.4% /
62.3% |
47.2% /
54.3% |
29.9% /
37.6% |
5.74 /
6.14 |
1.9% /
1.4% |
28.3% /
41.4% |
29.89 /
28.20 |
| 8 |
@ARZ |
24 – 21 W |
1.94 |
44.7% /
54.3% |
2.6% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
4.84 /
7.43 |
58.8% /
70.0% |
20.6% /
15.0% |
4.44 /
3.70 |
72 /
55 |
54.7% /
64.3% |
51.4% /
60.0% |
24.5% /
46.0% |
4.65 /
6.07 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
47.2% /
36.4% |
34.00 /
18.75 |
| 9 |
@KC |
7 – 13 L |
-8.47 |
31.4% /
36.8% |
2.9% /
2.6% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
5.11 /
4.21 |
48.0% /
44.0% |
16.0% /
36.0% |
4.88 /
3.08 |
60 /
63 |
42.2% /
40.4% |
38.3% /
39.7% |
29.2% /
23.9% |
5.02 /
3.76 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
41.7% /
39.7% |
24.22 /
28.64 |
| 10 |
SEA |
17 – 0 W |
3.45 |
47.4% /
34.9% |
2.6% /
7.0% |
2.7% /
5.0% |
7.55 /
3.09 |
59.4% /
62.5% |
15.6% /
12.5% |
3.31 /
4.69 |
70 /
59 |
55.6% /
42.9% |
52.9% /
42.4% |
46.0% /
21.2% |
5.61 /
3.53 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.7% /
27.1% |
20.22 /
29.20 |
| 11 |
@MIN |
31 – 34 L |
-5.00 |
62.9% /
59.5% |
5.7% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.63 /
8.59 |
57.9% /
51.7% |
15.8% /
31.0% |
5.00 /
3.10 |
54 /
66 |
61.9% /
52.8% |
61.1% /
56.1% |
50.4% /
45.0% |
8.65 /
6.18 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.2% /
43.9% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
Los Angeles Rams
@ 
Green Bay Packers