Game Analysis
Lean – DENVER (+7/+6.5) over LA Rams
It’s deja vu all over again for the Broncos. Just like last season, Denver won their opening two home games with the help of early season altitude advantage as the league gets into regular season shape. Since then the Broncos are 0-3 and last year they finished 3-11 after those first two home wins. It doesn’t look good for the Broncos to stop their skid as 7-point underdogs this week, but it’s worth noting that Denver is 19-10 ATS as a home underdog since 2000 and this year’s team is probably going to be better than last year’s team due to an upgrade at the quarterback position.
Denver’s offense catches a break facing the Rams without CB Aqib Talib. The Rams allowed just 5.9 yards per pass play in the first 3 weeks with Talib, but have surrendered 7.5 yards per pass play since his injury and 31 points in two straight games. Denver’s 2nd-rated ground game also matches up well versus a Rams rush defense ranked 26th in our numbers.
The Rams offense still managed 7.4 yards per play last week in Seattle despite losing their top two receivers to concussions in the 2nd quarter. Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp are both expected to play this week, which means it’s unlikely we’ll see the Rams attack Denver’s largest defensive deficiency. The Broncos surrender 10.8 yards per target to opposing tight ends (30th), but Jared Goff only targets tight ends on 10% of his passes (31st). Still, the Rams have the league’s best offense and they should put up points no matter who they’re targeting.
This is actually not a bad match-up for the Broncos and our model favors the Rams by just 6 points in this game. That’s not a significant amount of value but I’m going to lean with Denver on the basis of a 168-88-5 ATS bounce-back/contrary situation that plays on teams with losing spread record coming off a blowout loss to extend a losing streak. Also, starting in week 6, teams with a combined average margin of -20 points or more (team’s average scoring margin minus the opponent’s average scoring margin) are 82-36 ATS since 2000. Denver has been outscored by an average of 6.2 points per game while the Rams have outscored their opponents by an average of 15.0 points per game. That’s a 21.2 combined average margin and triggers that system play on Denver. I know it’s really hard to take te Broncos here but I’ve found that the harder a team is to take in the NFL the more likely that team covers the spread. The NFL is a contrary league and the Broncos are certainly the contrary side in this game.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Rams
- Broncos
Pass
- Pass Plays 32.8 34.0
- Succ Pass Plays 62.3% 44.5%
- Sack Rate 3.7% 6.6%
- Int Rate 2.9% 2.2%
- Deep Pass Rate 19.5% 17.2%
- Big Pass Yards 47.7% 43.1%
- NYPP 10.4 7.3
Rush
- Rush Plays 30.0 21.4
- RB YPR 4.4 4.6
- Stuff Rate 13.7% 23.0%
- Succ Rush Plays 52.8% 47.7%
- Big Rush Yards 43.1% 38.3%
- Yards Per Rush 4.5 4.8
Game
- All Snaps 62.8 55.4
- Early Down Succ 60.2% 42.3%
- Succ Rate 56.9% 45.7%
- Big Yards Rate 48.3% 41.5%
- Yards Per Play 7.6 6.1
- Fumble Lost Rate 0.3% 1.1%
- Time Per Play (sec) 29.6 32.2
- Run Ratio 47.6% 40.3%
- Starting Field Pos 29.8 24.6
- Game Control 5.6 -5.6
- Points 34.6 19.6