Game Analysis

Lean – DALLAS (-6.5) over LA Rams

· The Los Angeles offense can move the ball if the opposing defense can’t overwhelm their offensive line. However, Matthew Stafford averaged only 5.5 yppp with 4 interceptions versus the two defenses he’s gone against ranked in the top 10 in pressure rate (CIN and SF).

· The Cowboys have a league-high 49.8% pressure rate, and they will wreak havoc versus a Rams offensive line ranked 25th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Los Angeles LT Alaric Jackson’s 18.4% pressure rate allowed versus Pittsburgh was the highest among all week 7 tackles and he will struggle across from edge defender Micah Parsons, who ranks 2nd in pass rushing efficiency.

· Dak Prescott’s yards per attempt against zone coverage is only 74% is his yards per attempt versus man (31st) and the Rams have an 84.0% zone coverage rate (6th).

· The Los Angeles safeties are conceding just a 2.4% explosive pass rate (10th) due to extremely soft coverage that open up gaps underneath. Prescott is averaging just 7.0 air yards per attempt (5th-lowest) and he will use the quick game on Sunday.

· Dallas WR CeeDee Lamb is averaging 0.70 EPA/target (4th) and he has a favorable matchup on the inside across from nickelback Cobie Durant, who is surrendering 1.36 yards per slot cover snap (6th-most).

· Cowboys LT Tyron Smith is conceding only a 3.9% pressure rate, and he will contain edge defender Byron Young, who ranks 12th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Our model makes Dallas a 7.5-point favorite, with a predicted total of 47.7 points. There is a bit of value on Dallas and the Cowboys are a bully that tends to beat up on bad teams and struggle versus good teams. Dallas is 46-22-2 ATS against teams with a win percentage of .500 or less since Dak Prescott’s rookie season (2016).