Los Angeles Rams @ Dallas Cowboys Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Over (47.5) – DALLAS (-6) vs Los Angeles Rams

The Cowboys took control in the second half of Monday night’s game in Arizona with quarterback Dak Prescott leading the way by averaging 9.2 yards per pass play. After allowing the Cardinals offense 144 yards on their first two drives, the Dallas defense settled in and Arizona finished the game with only 4.4 yppl. The Cowboys defense will need to continue playing well against a Rams offense ranked 3rd in my numbers.

Los Angeles topped 40 points for the second time in three games last week in San Francisco. While Todd Gurley stole the headlines with 3 touchdowns, Jared Goff’s passing attack has been the reason for the offensive success. Sean McVay’s Rams rank first in passing through three games after having the worst pass attack in the leauge a season ago based on my metrics. Los Angeles’ improved offensive line, led by a new left tackle, 3-time Pro-Bowler Andrew Whitworth, has given Goff much more time this season, which has allowed him to look downfield more often. The offensive system is also a better fit for Goff, who is 2nd to only Tom Brady this season in yards from passes 20+ yards downfield. Goff throws a very accurate deep ball, just as he did in college, and this season he has time to wait for those plays down the field to develop.

I saw some value on the Rams when the line was 7 and higher but that value is now gone. However, this game does apply to a 66-28-4 Over situation and I’ll lean with the Over based on that.

Team Stats
Game Log

Rams
Cowboys

LOS

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 29.0 31.7
Succ Pass Plays 52.8% 40.9%
Sack Rate 3.5% 10.9%
Int Rate 1.3% 4.1%
Deep Pass Rate 17.8% 12.7%
Big Pass Yards 64.3% 60.1%
NYPP 9.7 6.3

Rush

Rush Plays 31.7 32.3
RB YPR 3.3 4.2
Stuff Rate 22.1% 24.4%
Succ Rush Plays 44.4% 43.2%
Big Rush Yards 31.9% 49.1%
Yards Per Rush 3.2 4.1

Game

All Snaps 60.7 64.0
Early Down Succ 50.8% 45.6%
Succ Rate 47.3% 41.9%
Big Yards Rate 56.6% 59.5%
Yards Per Play 6.3 5.3
Fumble Lost Rate 2.2% 1.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.8 29.2
Run Ratio 51.5% 50.6%
Starting Field Pos 31.4 31.2
Game Control 8.5 -8.5

Points 35.7 25.0

DAL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.7 43.0
Succ Pass Plays 44.4% 50.8%
Sack Rate 3.9% 8.1%
Int Rate 1.3% 1.9%
Deep Pass Rate 13.6% 13.6%
Big Pass Yards 40.5% 37.6%
NYPP 6.8 5.3

Rush

Rush Plays 24.0 24.7
RB YPR 2.8 3.2
Stuff Rate 31.8% 19.5%
Succ Rush Plays 38.9% 36.3%
Big Rush Yards 36.1% 23.2%
Yards Per Rush 3.6 3.2

Game

All Snaps 60.7 67.7
Early Down Succ 46.1% 47.2%
Succ Rate 42.6% 46.0%
Big Yards Rate 38.1% 36.7%
Yards Per Play 5.2 4.6
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.0 28.4
Run Ratio 41.4% 35.4%
Starting Field Pos 32.2 21.5
Game Control -1.1 1.1

Points 21.3 20.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	IND	46 – 9 W	21.3	54.8% / 28.0%	3.2% / 16.0%	0.0% / 9.5%	10.0 / 6.0	22.5% / 32.0%	22.5% / 28.0%	1.7 / 3.0	71 / 50	43.5% / 40.5%	36.6% / 30.0%	52.7% / 81.4%	5.3 / 4.5	1.4% / 2.0%	56.3% / 50.0%	35.8 / 23.1
2	WAS	20 – 27 L	-4.5	39.3% / 48.3%	7.1% / 6.9%	3.8% / 0.0%	8.6 / 5.4	59.1% / 46.2%	13.6% / 17.9%	4.2 / 5.9	50 / 68	51.4% / 49.1%	48.0% / 47.1%	61.9% / 46.2%	6.7 / 5.7	2.0% / 0.0%	44.0% / 57.4%	22.4 / 34.5
3	@SF	41 – 39 W	8.5	64.3% / 46.3%	0.0% / 9.8%	0.0% / 2.7%	10.4 / 7.5	51.5% / 51.5%	30.3% / 27.3%	3.8 / 3.4	61 / 74	57.4% / 47.2%	57.4% / 48.6%	55.4% / 50.8%	6.9 / 5.7	3.3% / 1.4%	54.1% / 44.6%	36.1 / 36.1

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	NYG	19 – 3 W	9.1	48.7% / 48.8%	2.6% / 7.3%	0.0% / 2.6%	6.7 / 4.8	54.8% / 23.1%	19.4% / 7.7%	4.2 / 2.8	70 / 54	50.9% / 46.2%	51.4% / 42.6%	37.0% / 27.8%	5.6 / 4.3	0.0% / 0.0%	44.3% / 24.1%	29.4 / 16.0
2	@DEN	17 – 42 L	-11.9	42.3% / 64.7%	3.8% / 5.9%	4.0% / 3.1%	4.4 / 5.9	28.6% / 52.5%	42.9% / 17.5%	2.9 / 4.5	66 / 74	44.7% / 59.6%	39.4% / 58.1%	14.6% / 30.7%	4.1 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.4%	21.2% / 54.1%	37.6 / 26.9
3	@ARI	28 – 17 W	-0.5	42.1% / 38.9%	5.3% / 11.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.2 / 5.2	33.3% / 33.3%	33.3% / 33.3%	3.7 / 2.3	46 / 75	42.9% / 35.7%	37.0% / 37.3%	62.8% / 51.5%	6.0 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	58.7% / 28.0%	29.4 / 21.6

Los Angeles Rams @

Dallas Cowboys

Sun, Oct 1

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis