Game Analysis

Lean – CHICAGO (-3) over LA Rams

Lean  – Under (41)

• The Rams have had 11 players take snaps on the offensive line this season while wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are sidelined for the foreseeable future. Despite this, Matthew Stafford averaged 7.1 yppp last week leading a comeback which saw Los Angeles’s win probability as low as 3% against San Francisco.
• The Rams used 12 personnel on 44% of snaps against the 49ers due to the lack of wide receivers and to support the offensive line. It was the 8th-most 12 personnel of the Sean McVay era but the Bears have it on tape and a week of preparation to address their weaknesses.
• Opposing quarterbacks are completing 66% of passes with at least 10 air yards against the Rams defense this season (31st).
• Caleb Williams is averaging 67% more yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush than the blitz (3rd) and his offensive line won’t implode in front of him as much with Los Angeles having a 77.1% standard pass rush rate (4th-highest).
• The Rams are surrendering a league-high 0.81 EPA/target to tight ends, and they will struggle against TE Cole Kmet, who has a 65% success rate (4th).
• Chicago WR Keenan Allen is tracking to return this week and would line up across from nickelback Quentin Lake, who is surrendering 1.69 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th-worst).
• Our model favors the Bears by 5.6 with a predicted total of 39.2.