Game Analysis
LA Rams (-3) vs Chicago
Two of the top 3 teams in the NFC are squaring off on Sunday night while featuring quite possibly the best two defenders in the league in Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack. Donald has been more dominant this season leading the NFL in pass rushing efficiency as well as overall sacks with 16.5, which is remarkable because no player has topped the league in sacks from an interior position since 2000 when La’Roi Glover had 17. Coincidentally that same season, another defensive tackle, Warren Sapp, finished 2nd in sacks with 16.5. The Bears lost 3-time Pro Bowl guard Kyle Long for the season in week 8 and Bryan Witzmann has been vulnerable as his replacement – ranking 11th-worst in pass blocking efficiency. I expect Donald to expose Witzmann up the middle all night. Tarik Cohen leads all running backs with 2.78 yards per route run, but a major strength of the Rams defense is limiting pass catchers out of the backfield. The Rams concede just 4.4 yards per target to opposing running backs (2nd) and Mitch Trubisky will likely be forced to use his legs to make plays without a check-down option when he feels pressure. Trubisky is adding a staggering 0.59 expected points per run this season and should inflict some damage with scrambles if he’s fully healthy. Regardless, I expect the Bears to focus heavily on their ground game in this one versus a Rams defense ranked 28th against the run.
The intriguing matchup in this game is our #2 defense taking on a high-powered Rams’ attack attempting to work out the kinks without Cooper Kupp. Josh Reynolds is gaining just 1.09 yards per route run and the Rams are averaging just 5.8 yards per play in 4 games without Kupp compared to 7.5 yards per play with the excellent slot receiver in the lineup.
Our model makes the Rams a 2.9-point favorite with a predicted total of 53.2 points and I suggest passing on this one.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.1
35.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.8%
45.4%
-
Sack Rate
6.1%
7.8%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
3.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.9%
20.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.8%
48.9%
-
NYPP
8.1
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.8
24.7
-
RB YPR
4.6
4.7
-
Stuff Rate
15.8%
18.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.2%
49.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.5%
41.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
65.8
60.3
-
Early Down Succ
55.8%
48.4%
-
Succ Rate
51.7%
47.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.0%
49.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.5
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.7
29.9
-
Run Ratio
43.6%
41.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.6
26.4
-
Game Control
3.9
-3.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.2
41.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.0%
44.5%
-
Sack Rate
6.1%
7.5%
-
Int Rate
3.3%
5.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
23.8%
14.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.0%
34.7%
-
NYPP
6.6
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.8
22.3
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
20.9%
25.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.5%
41.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.6%
30.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
65.0
63.7
-
Early Down Succ
50.3%
45.2%
-
Succ Rate
46.9%
43.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.0%
34.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.6
27.8
-
Run Ratio
46.1%
35.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.3
28.0
-
Game Control
6.3
-6.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@OAK |
33 – 13 W |
1.4 |
44.1% /
48.8% |
2.9% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
6.6 /
7.3 |
55.6% /
56.5% |
3.7% /
17.4% |
5.2 /
4.1 |
61 /
64 |
54.2% /
52.8% |
49.2% /
51.6% |
39.3% /
39.2% |
6.0 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.3% /
35.9% |
27.0 /
23.5 |
| 2 |
ARI |
34 – 0 W |
14.9 |
64.7% /
21.4% |
5.9% /
3.6% |
3.1% /
3.7% |
10.1 /
3.0 |
48.5% /
33.3% |
24.2% /
13.3% |
2.7 /
3.6 |
67 /
43 |
59.2% /
23.3% |
56.7% /
25.6% |
51.9% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
3.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
34.9% |
39.1 /
19.0 |
| 3 |
LAC |
35 – 23 W |
9.0 |
59.5% /
40.6% |
2.7% /
6.3% |
2.8% /
0.0% |
9.5 /
6.7 |
62.2% /
60.0% |
10.8% /
30.0% |
4.7 /
7.1 |
74 /
52 |
62.7% /
45.9% |
60.8% /
48.1% |
45.5% /
62.9% |
7.1 /
6.8 |
1.4% /
3.8% |
50.0% /
38.5% |
22.8 /
26.6 |
| 4 |
MIN |
38 – 31 W |
3.9 |
60.0% /
51.9% |
2.9% /
7.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
13.0 /
7.3 |
57.1% /
35.3% |
14.3% /
35.3% |
4.8 /
3.2 |
56 /
71 |
68.1% /
45.3% |
58.9% /
47.9% |
55.7% /
38.8% |
9.9 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
37.5% /
23.9% |
26.6 /
27.2 |
| 5 |
@SEA |
33 – 31 W |
-1.0 |
83.3% /
60.0% |
4.2% /
13.3% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
13.0 /
12.2 |
40.6% /
53.1% |
15.6% /
18.8% |
4.9 /
5.9 |
56 /
47 |
56.9% /
44.2% |
58.9% /
55.3% |
49.1% /
66.5% |
8.4 /
7.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
57.1% /
68.1% |
33.7 /
26.6 |
| 6 |
@DEN |
23 – 20 W |
8.2 |
30.3% /
48.8% |
15.2% /
4.7% |
3.6% /
2.4% |
5.3 /
6.9 |
68.3% /
33.3% |
2.4% /
16.7% |
6.6 /
3.4 |
74 /
61 |
55.8% /
50.0% |
51.4% /
44.3% |
53.8% /
48.0% |
6.0 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.4% /
29.5% |
28.5 /
27.0 |
| 7 |
@SF |
39 – 10 W |
16.0 |
53.8% /
29.4% |
7.7% /
20.6% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
7.1 /
3.6 |
57.9% /
62.5% |
10.5% /
16.7% |
3.9 /
4.5 |
64 /
58 |
67.4% /
47.8% |
56.3% /
43.1% |
37.1% /
68.9% |
5.2 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
3.4% |
59.4% /
41.4% |
40.8 /
26.7 |
| 8 |
GB |
29 – 27 W |
-2.6 |
43.9% /
45.5% |
12.2% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
7.7 |
42.9% /
63.2% |
28.6% /
21.1% |
3.9 /
5.6 |
76 /
52 |
43.6% /
58.1% |
43.4% /
51.9% |
51.3% /
69.4% |
5.5 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
46.1% /
36.5% |
31.7 /
21.1 |
| 9 |
@NO |
35 – 45 L |
-6.9 |
55.0% /
58.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
9.8 /
9.6 |
36.8% /
44.4% |
21.1% /
11.1% |
4.8 /
4.0 |
59 /
72 |
53.1% /
51.9% |
49.2% /
51.4% |
48.0% /
36.6% |
8.2 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
32.2% /
50.0% |
30.0 /
31.4 |
| 10 |
SEA |
36 – 31 W |
0.6 |
53.7% /
48.3% |
4.9% /
13.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
4.9 |
70.8% /
64.7% |
8.3% /
14.7% |
6.3 /
8.0 |
65 /
63 |
65.4% /
64.2% |
60.0% /
57.1% |
36.7% /
66.7% |
7.0 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
36.9% /
54.0% |
30.2 /
24.1 |
| 11 |
KC |
54 – 51 W |
4.5 |
46.3% /
59.2% |
9.3% /
6.1% |
0.0% /
6.5% |
7.0 /
9.1 |
39.1% /
45.0% |
21.7% /
5.0% |
3.4 /
4.9 |
77 /
69 |
48.3% /
55.2% |
44.2% /
55.1% |
49.2% /
57.7% |
5.9 /
7.9 |
2.6% /
2.9% |
29.9% /
29.0% |
26.0 /
27.5 |
| 13 |
@DET |
30 – 16 W |
4.6 |
42.9% /
39.5% |
5.7% /
10.5% |
3.0% /
2.9% |
5.6 /
5.5 |
45.2% /
46.2% |
12.9% /
30.8% |
4.9 /
3.9 |
66 /
64 |
47.1% /
48.1% |
43.9% /
42.2% |
38.7% /
46.8% |
5.2 /
4.8 |
1.5% /
1.6% |
47.0% /
40.6% |
32.0 /
25.7 |
| 14 |
@CHI |
6 – 15 L |
-2.4 |
35.4% /
38.7% |
6.3% /
3.2% |
8.9% /
10.0% |
3.4 /
3.2 |
53.8% /
43.2% |
30.8% /
8.1% |
4.0 /
5.3 |
61 /
68 |
43.5% /
42.9% |
39.3% /
41.2% |
28.0% /
38.2% |
3.5 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
21.3% /
54.4% |
29.1 /
36.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@GB |
23 – 24 L |
9.5 |
35.9% /
43.9% |
10.3% /
9.8% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
4.0 /
7.3 |
59.3% /
27.8% |
18.5% /
16.7% |
5.1 /
3.8 |
66 /
59 |
48.9% /
40.0% |
45.5% /
39.0% |
38.1% /
59.5% |
4.5 /
6.3 |
1.5% /
1.7% |
40.9% /
30.5% |
25.7 /
30.7 |
| 2 |
SEA |
24 – 17 W |
7.4 |
52.8% /
43.6% |
5.6% /
15.4% |
5.9% /
3.0% |
5.1 /
5.2 |
48.3% /
45.5% |
13.8% /
13.6% |
3.0 /
3.4 |
65 /
61 |
55.1% /
44.9% |
50.8% /
44.3% |
6.3% /
23.2% |
4.2 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
44.6% /
36.1% |
33.6 /
24.5 |
| 3 |
@ARI |
16 – 14 W |
-7.2 |
42.1% /
40.0% |
7.9% /
13.3% |
2.9% /
11.5% |
5.1 /
5.6 |
54.8% /
33.3% |
22.6% /
27.8% |
3.9 /
2.9 |
69 /
48 |
50.0% /
40.5% |
47.8% /
37.5% |
37.7% /
58.8% |
4.6 /
4.6 |
1.4% /
2.1% |
44.9% /
37.5% |
27.8 /
32.8 |
| 4 |
TB |
48 – 10 W |
27.7 |
66.7% /
45.2% |
3.7% /
9.5% |
0.0% /
7.9% |
12.7 /
6.0 |
51.5% /
38.9% |
27.3% /
22.2% |
4.3 /
3.3 |
60 /
60 |
64.6% /
45.7% |
58.3% /
43.3% |
72.6% /
32.8% |
8.1 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.0% /
30.0% |
27.5 /
23.8 |
| 6 |
@MIA |
28 – 31 L |
-0.3 |
54.5% /
48.8% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
3.2% /
4.7% |
9.2 /
8.8 |
43.8% /
58.1% |
9.4% /
9.7% |
5.2 /
5.2 |
65 /
74 |
48.0% /
53.4% |
49.2% /
52.7% |
60.7% /
48.2% |
7.2 /
7.3 |
3.1% /
1.4% |
49.2% /
41.9% |
25.3 /
28.7 |
| 7 |
NE |
31 – 38 L |
-3.8 |
43.1% /
62.2% |
3.9% /
2.7% |
4.1% /
2.8% |
6.3 /
7.4 |
52.0% /
63.0% |
12.0% /
22.2% |
5.4 /
4.0 |
76 /
64 |
44.1% /
66.0% |
46.1% /
62.5% |
44.6% /
29.7% |
6.0 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
32.9% /
42.2% |
32.9 /
25.6 |
| 8 |
NYJ |
24 – 10 W |
6.9 |
45.2% /
36.7% |
6.5% /
3.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.0 /
5.0 |
52.9% /
20.8% |
14.7% /
37.5% |
5.3 /
2.4 |
65 /
54 |
51.9% /
30.8% |
49.2% /
29.6% |
46.3% /
20.3% |
6.1 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.3% /
44.4% |
28.5 /
22.0 |
| 9 |
@BUF |
41 – 9 W |
18.7 |
42.9% /
35.8% |
4.8% /
7.5% |
5.0% /
6.1% |
6.0 /
3.2 |
39.3% /
28.6% |
28.6% /
42.9% |
2.4 /
3.5 |
49 /
81 |
51.5% /
33.3% |
40.8% /
33.3% |
39.4% /
39.4% |
3.9 /
3.3 |
0.0% /
1.2% |
57.1% /
34.6% |
43.9 /
25.9 |
| 10 |
DET |
34 – 22 W |
15.7 |
58.1% /
43.8% |
3.2% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
11.2 /
4.8 |
31.8% /
54.2% |
36.4% /
29.2% |
2.5 /
3.2 |
53 /
72 |
48.8% /
50.0% |
47.2% /
47.2% |
66.7% /
25.9% |
7.6 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
41.5% /
33.3% |
33.4 /
28.8 |
| 11 |
MIN |
25 – 20 W |
8.4 |
50.0% /
54.2% |
3.1% /
4.2% |
6.5% /
4.3% |
5.0 /
5.1 |
45.2% /
28.6% |
21.4% /
50.0% |
3.6 /
1.6 |
74 /
62 |
51.8% /
49.0% |
47.3% /
48.4% |
20.6% /
9.3% |
4.2 /
4.3 |
1.4% /
1.6% |
56.8% /
22.6% |
26.9 /
34.1 |
| 12 |
@DET |
23 – 16 W |
0.5 |
50.0% /
47.5% |
9.5% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
5.4 /
5.6 |
31.3% /
58.3% |
25.0% /
4.2% |
2.4 /
4.6 |
58 /
64 |
51.1% /
56.3% |
44.8% /
51.6% |
24.5% /
27.9% |
4.6 /
5.2 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
27.6% /
37.5% |
27.2 /
27.1 |
| 13 |
@NYG |
27 – 30 L |
-4.0 |
44.4% /
41.0% |
11.1% /
7.7% |
5.0% /
2.8% |
5.7 /
5.1 |
37.5% /
31.0% |
34.4% /
27.6% |
3.7 /
4.9 |
77 /
68 |
45.6% /
34.7% |
41.6% /
36.8% |
50.3% /
42.9% |
4.9 /
5.0 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
41.6% /
42.6% |
25.1 /
31.4 |
| 14 |
LA |
15 – 6 W |
2.4 |
38.7% /
35.4% |
3.2% /
6.3% |
10.0% /
8.9% |
3.2 /
3.4 |
43.2% /
53.8% |
8.1% /
30.8% |
5.3 /
4.0 |
68 /
61 |
42.9% /
43.5% |
41.2% /
39.3% |
38.2% /
28.0% |
4.4 /
3.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.4% /
21.3% |
36.3 /
29.1 |
Los Angeles Rams
@ 
Chicago Bears