Los Angeles Rams @

Chicago Bears

Sun, Dec 9
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 119
Odds: Chicago Bears +3, Total: 51.5

Game Analysis

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LA Rams (-3) vs Chicago

Two of the top 3 teams in the NFC are squaring off on Sunday night while featuring quite possibly the best two defenders in the league in Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack. Donald has been more dominant this season leading the NFL in pass rushing efficiency as well as overall sacks with 16.5, which is remarkable because no player has topped the league in sacks from an interior position since 2000 when La’Roi Glover had 17. Coincidentally that same season, another defensive tackle, Warren Sapp, finished 2nd in sacks with 16.5. The Bears lost 3-time Pro Bowl guard Kyle Long for the season in week 8 and Bryan Witzmann has been vulnerable as his replacement – ranking 11th-worst in pass blocking efficiency. I expect Donald to expose Witzmann up the middle all night. Tarik Cohen leads all running backs with 2.78 yards per route run, but a major strength of the Rams defense is limiting pass catchers out of the backfield. The Rams concede just 4.4 yards per target to opposing running backs (2nd) and Mitch Trubisky will likely be forced to use his legs to make plays without a check-down option when he feels pressure. Trubisky is adding a staggering 0.59 expected points per run this season and should inflict some damage with scrambles if he’s fully healthy. Regardless, I expect the Bears to focus heavily on their ground game in this one versus a Rams defense ranked 28th against the run.

The intriguing matchup in this game is our #2 defense taking on a high-powered Rams’ attack attempting to work out the kinks without Cooper Kupp. Josh Reynolds is gaining just 1.09 yards per route run and the Rams are averaging just 5.8 yards per play in 4 games without Kupp compared to 7.5 yards per play with the excellent slot receiver in the lineup.

Our model makes the Rams a 2.9-point favorite with a predicted total of 53.2 points and I suggest passing on this one.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Rams
  • Bears
LOS
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 37.1 35.6
  • Succ Pass Plays 51.8% 45.4%
  • Sack Rate 6.1% 7.8%
  • Int Rate 2.5% 3.1%
  • Deep Pass Rate 20.9% 20.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 43.8% 48.9%
  • NYPP 8.1 6.7



Rush


  • Rush Plays 28.8 24.7
  • RB YPR 4.6 4.7
  • Stuff Rate 15.8% 18.4%
  • Succ Rush Plays 52.2% 49.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 43.5% 41.6%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.6 4.9




Game

  • All Snaps 65.8 60.3
  • Early Down Succ 55.8% 48.4%
  • Succ Rate 51.7% 47.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 45.0% 49.2%
  • Yards Per Play 6.5 6.0
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 1.4%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.7 29.9
  • Run Ratio 43.6% 41.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 30.6 26.4
  • Game Control 3.9 -3.9
 
  • Points 32.7 24.1
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