Game Analysis

LA Rams (-10) vs CAROLINA

Strong Opinion – Kyron Williams (Rams) UNDER 10.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at -125 odds or better

• The way to beat the Panthers is to put the game on Bryce Young’s shoulders. Carolina does not want opponents to do that, as they have the 6th-highest run rate adjusted for the situation.
• The Rams’ defense is conceding a 38% rush success rate (6th) but they allowed 164 yards on the ground to the Panthers in the week 13 loss.
• However, Los Angeles outgained Carolina 7.4 yppl to 5.8 yppl in that game. The Panthers won the game by going +3 in turnovers (including a pick six) and going 3-for-3 on 4th down – both of which are hard to replicate.
• Additionally, Young was 4-for-6 for 102 yards on throws with 10+ air yards against the Rams. Carolina’s offensive line ranks 8th in pass blocking efficiency and afforded Young time in the pocket against a Los Angeles pass rush with a 40% pressure rate (6th).
• Nonetheless, Young should not have hit for as much deep yardage as he did versus a Rams defense ranks 6th in EPA/pass with 10+ air yards.
• It could be raining on Saturday and the scoring conditions for this game are projected to be about 2 points below average.
• Los Angeles is likely getting back nickelback Quentin Lake, who is conceding just 0.80 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd).
• The Rams are also getting back WR Davante Adams, who is gaining 1.40 yards per route run more than backup WR Konata Mumpfield.
• However, Los Angeles might have to wait another week for RG Kevin Dotson due to an ankle sprain. The Rams average 4.8 yards per carry with Dotson on the field compared to only 4.0 yards per carry when Dotson is off the field.
• Los Angeles leads the NFL with a 37% play action rate, but Matthew Stafford will struggle as Carolina’s yards per attempt allowed versus play action is a league-low 75% of their yards per attempt allowed to a standard dropback.
• Our model favors the Rams by 10.5 points with a predicted total of 46.3 points.