Game Analysis

Note: The line has moved down to 7 points but the Ravens are still a Strong Opinion at +7 -110 odds or better.

Strong Opinion – BALTIMORE (+7.5) over LA Rams

• Houston closed as 2.5-point favorites in Baltimore last week.
• The cluster losses on Baltimore’s defense had high variance when trying to quantify, and I think if the market could redo that one, the Texans would be favored by around 4 points.
• We have the Rams 5 points better than the Texans on a neutral.
• This implies the Rams should be -9 over last week’s Ravens.
• However, Baltimore is likely getting back All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton and Pro Bowl LT Ronnie Stanley for this game.
• Ravens’ backup left tackle Joe Noteboom surrendered pressure at a 26.1% rate against Houston, by far the worst clip in the NFL last week, so having Stanley back will help immensely.
• Baltimore traded for S Alohi Gilman earlier this week and signed safety CJ Gardner-Johnson, which almost certainly means the plan is to move Kyle Hamilton closer to the line of scrimmage. Hamilton had 17 run stops in 2024 (8th). Hamilton will be a huge upgrade at nickelback from undrafted rookie Keyon Martin.
• Hamilton and Stanley are worth 1.5 points combined according to our numbers.
• This puts the Rams as a 7.5-point favorite as a fair line, but we have a strong technical angle on the Ravens. Teams that lose by 14 points or more while giving up 42 points or more are historically good bets the next week as underdogs (160-119-11 ATS) and Baltimore applies to a 77-25-2 ATS subset of that angle. The Ravens also apply to a 153-87-5 ATS situation that plays on teams with a season to date spread win percentage of 0.200 or lower (after at least 4 games). Nobody wants to bet on Baltimore this week, which means that they’re likely a good bet.
• Our model predicts 45.0 total points with high winds and possible precipitation in the forecast, which also favors the underdog.

Baltimore is a Strong Opinion at +7 or more.