Game Analysis
LA Rams (-14) vs ARIZONA
Arizona’s offense has been abysmal the last 2 weeks without Christian Kirk and 4 of 5 starting linemen, gaining just 4.1 yards per play. I don’t see things getting any better for that unit against a Rams defensive front will generate significant pressure on Josh Rosen, who likely won’t have anyone open. Kirk was gaining 1.85 yards per route run with Rosen, but no other receiver is above 1.5 yards per route run. Larry Fitzgerald Is not as great as he used to be and he’ll be blanketed on the inside by Nickell Robey-Coleman, who concedes just 0.77 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd). Wade Phillips’ defense has been 1.1 yards per play better with Aqib Talib in the starting lineup this season and I don’t expect Arizona’s offense to be able to move the ball on Sunday.
The loss of Cooper Kupp is making a massive difference to the Rams offense. Los Angeles averaged a deceptive 38 points in the first 4 games without Kupp, as they gained only 5.8 yards per play in those games and the scoreboard finally reflected their issues the last two weeks. Sean McVay uses 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs) on 98% of plays, an incredibly high rate considering no other team is above 76%. The scheme makes the slot receiver significantly more valuable to the Rams offense than other teams because he is on the field for basically every snap. The drop-off from Kupp to Josh Reynolds on the inside is extreme. Kupp was gaining 2.27 yards per route run compared to Reynold’s 1.08 yards per route run and Kupp adds 0.44 more expected points per non-turnover target than Reynolds according to our numbers. I expect Jared Goff to bounce back after two poor performances, but the Rams offense is unlikely to reach their early-season heights as we approach the playoffs.
Our model likes the Rams but the situation strongly favors the Cardinals, who apply to a very good 73-17-1 ATS contrary angle that plays on the worst team when the combined average scoring margin differential of two teams is 20 points or more. The last time that angle applies was on Arizona at Kansas City and the Cardinals covered in a 14-26 loss. I’ll pass on the side since our model thinks the Rams should win by 20 or so points but the situation favors the Cardinals.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.4
35.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.1%
44.9%
-
Sack Rate
5.8%
7.2%
-
Int Rate
2.6%
3.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.5%
20.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.6%
48.3%
-
NYPP
7.9
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.0
25.1
-
RB YPR
4.6
4.6
-
Stuff Rate
17.0%
18.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.5%
48.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.9%
41.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.8
Game
-
All Snaps
66.4
60.4
-
Early Down Succ
56.2%
47.9%
-
Succ Rate
52.0%
46.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.0%
48.5%
-
Yards Per Play
6.4
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.4
30.0
-
Run Ratio
42.2%
41.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.2
27.2
-
Game Control
3.2
-3.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
30.1
32.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
87.3%
90.4%
-
Sack Rate
15.6%
15.2%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.9%
14.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.1%
31.4%
-
NYPP
10.5
11.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.9
31.6
-
RB YPR
3.4
4.7
-
Stuff Rate
23.6%
24.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
38.8%
48.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
28.6%
53.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
53.1
63.6
-
Early Down Succ
40.6%
52.3%
-
Succ Rate
44.4%
52.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
35.8%
41.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
32.4
32.0
-
Run Ratio
46.7%
51.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.2
30.0
-
Game Control
-6.8
6.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@OAK |
33 – 13 W |
1.4 |
44.1% / 48.8% |
2.9% / 2.4% |
0.0% / 7.5% |
6.6 / 7.3 |
55.6% / 56.5% |
3.7% / 17.4% |
5.2 / 4.1 |
61 / 64 |
54.2% / 52.8% |
49.2% / 51.6% |
39.3% / 39.2% |
6.0 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
44.3% / 35.9% |
27.0 / 23.5 |
2 |
ARI |
34 – 0 W |
14.9 |
64.7% / 21.4% |
5.9% / 3.6% |
3.1% / 3.7% |
10.1 / 3.0 |
48.5% / 33.3% |
24.2% / 13.3% |
2.7 / 3.6 |
67 / 43 |
59.2% / 23.3% |
56.7% / 25.6% |
51.9% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 3.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.3% / 34.9% |
39.1 / 19.0 |
3 |
LAC |
35 – 23 W |
9.0 |
59.5% / 40.6% |
2.7% / 6.3% |
2.8% / 0.0% |
9.5 / 6.7 |
62.2% / 60.0% |
10.8% / 30.0% |
4.7 / 7.1 |
74 / 52 |
62.7% / 45.9% |
60.8% / 48.1% |
45.5% / 62.9% |
7.1 / 6.8 |
1.4% / 3.8% |
50.0% / 38.5% |
22.8 / 26.6 |
4 |
MIN |
38 – 31 W |
3.9 |
60.0% / 51.9% |
2.9% / 7.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
13.0 / 7.3 |
57.1% / 35.3% |
14.3% / 35.3% |
4.8 / 3.2 |
56 / 71 |
68.1% / 45.3% |
58.9% / 47.9% |
55.7% / 38.8% |
9.9 / 6.3 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
37.5% / 23.9% |
26.6 / 27.2 |
5 |
@SEA |
33 – 31 W |
-1.0 |
83.3% / 60.0% |
4.2% / 13.3% |
8.7% / 0.0% |
13.0 / 12.2 |
40.6% / 53.1% |
15.6% / 18.8% |
4.9 / 5.9 |
56 / 47 |
56.9% / 44.2% |
58.9% / 55.3% |
49.1% / 66.5% |
8.4 / 7.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
57.1% / 68.1% |
33.7 / 26.6 |
6 |
@DEN |
23 – 20 W |
8.2 |
30.3% / 48.8% |
15.2% / 4.7% |
3.6% / 2.4% |
5.3 / 6.9 |
68.3% / 33.3% |
2.4% / 16.7% |
6.6 / 3.4 |
74 / 61 |
55.8% / 50.0% |
51.4% / 44.3% |
53.8% / 48.0% |
6.0 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
55.4% / 29.5% |
28.5 / 27.0 |
7 |
@SF |
39 – 10 W |
16.0 |
53.8% / 29.4% |
7.7% / 20.6% |
0.0% / 7.4% |
7.1 / 3.6 |
57.9% / 62.5% |
10.5% / 16.7% |
3.9 / 4.5 |
64 / 58 |
67.4% / 47.8% |
56.3% / 43.1% |
37.1% / 68.9% |
5.2 / 3.9 |
0.0% / 3.4% |
59.4% / 41.4% |
40.8 / 26.7 |
8 |
GB |
29 – 27 W |
-2.6 |
43.9% / 45.5% |
12.2% / 9.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.9 / 7.7 |
42.9% / 63.2% |
28.6% / 21.1% |
3.9 / 5.6 |
76 / 52 |
43.6% / 58.1% |
43.4% / 51.9% |
51.3% / 69.4% |
5.5 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 1.9% |
46.1% / 36.5% |
31.7 / 21.1 |
9 |
@NO |
35 – 45 L |
-6.9 |
55.0% / 58.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
2.5% / 0.0% |
9.8 / 9.6 |
36.8% / 44.4% |
21.1% / 11.1% |
4.8 / 4.0 |
59 / 72 |
53.1% / 51.9% |
49.2% / 51.4% |
48.0% / 36.6% |
8.2 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
32.2% / 50.0% |
30.0 / 31.4 |
10 |
SEA |
36 – 31 W |
0.6 |
53.7% / 48.3% |
4.9% / 13.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 4.9 |
70.8% / 64.7% |
8.3% / 14.7% |
6.3 / 8.0 |
65 / 63 |
65.4% / 64.2% |
60.0% / 57.1% |
36.7% / 66.7% |
7.0 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
36.9% / 54.0% |
30.2 / 24.1 |
11 |
KC |
54 – 51 W |
4.5 |
46.3% / 59.2% |
9.3% / 6.1% |
0.0% / 6.5% |
7.0 / 9.1 |
39.1% / 45.0% |
21.7% / 5.0% |
3.4 / 4.9 |
77 / 69 |
48.3% / 55.2% |
44.2% / 55.1% |
49.2% / 57.7% |
5.9 / 7.9 |
2.6% / 2.9% |
29.9% / 29.0% |
26.0 / 27.5 |
13 |
@DET |
30 – 16 W |
4.6 |
42.9% / 39.5% |
5.7% / 10.5% |
3.0% / 2.9% |
5.6 / 5.5 |
45.2% / 46.2% |
12.9% / 30.8% |
4.9 / 3.9 |
66 / 64 |
47.1% / 48.1% |
43.9% / 42.2% |
38.7% / 46.8% |
5.2 / 4.8 |
1.5% / 1.6% |
47.0% / 40.6% |
32.0 / 25.7 |
14 |
@CHI |
6 – 15 L |
-2.4 |
35.4% / 38.7% |
6.3% / 3.2% |
8.9% / 10.0% |
3.4 / 3.2 |
53.8% / 43.2% |
30.8% / 8.1% |
4.0 / 5.3 |
61 / 68 |
43.5% / 42.9% |
39.3% / 41.2% |
28.0% / 38.2% |
3.5 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
21.3% / 54.4% |
29.1 / 36.3 |
15 |
PHI |
23 – 30 L |
-4.8 |
56.4% / 38.7% |
1.8% / 0.0% |
3.7% / 3.2% |
6.0 / 8.7 |
55.6% / 36.7% |
33.3% / 23.3% |
4.6 / 3.7 |
73 / 61 |
61.7% / 40.4% |
56.2% / 37.7% |
32.2% / 39.6% |
5.7 / 6.2 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
24.7% / 49.2% |
25.4 / 38.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
WAS |
6 – 24 L |
-13.7 |
700.0% / 600.0% |
100.0% / 100.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
72.5 / 82.3 |
56.3% / 46.5% |
12.5% / 25.6% |
4.3 / 4.3 |
18 / 46 |
53.7% / 50.0% |
127.8% / 82.6% |
35.0% / 47.0% |
11.9 / 9.3 |
5.6% / 2.2% |
88.9% / 93.5% |
29.3 / 18.0 |
2 |
@LA |
0 – 34 L |
-14.9 |
21.4% / 64.7% |
3.6% / 5.9% |
3.7% / 3.1% |
3.0 / 10.1 |
33.3% / 48.5% |
13.3% / 24.2% |
3.6 / 2.7 |
43 / 67 |
23.3% / 59.2% |
25.6% / 56.7% |
0.0% / 51.9% |
3.2 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.9% / 49.3% |
19.0 / 39.1 |
3 |
CHI |
14 – 16 L |
7.2 |
40.0% / 42.1% |
13.3% / 7.9% |
11.5% / 2.9% |
5.6 / 5.1 |
33.3% / 54.8% |
27.8% / 22.6% |
2.9 / 3.9 |
48 / 69 |
40.5% / 50.0% |
37.5% / 47.8% |
58.8% / 37.7% |
4.6 / 4.6 |
2.1% / 1.4% |
37.5% / 44.9% |
32.8 / 27.8 |
4 |
SEA |
17 – 20 L |
-2.0 |
42.9% / 48.1% |
3.6% / 7.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 5.9 |
39.3% / 50.0% |
35.7% / 23.5% |
3.3 / 5.0 |
56 / 61 |
40.9% / 58.0% |
41.1% / 49.2% |
54.0% / 35.6% |
4.7 / 5.4 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 55.7% |
26.4 / 35.5 |
5 |
@SF |
28 – 18 W |
6.1 |
80.0% / 71.1% |
10.0% / 10.5% |
0.0% / 5.9% |
16.4 / 7.9 |
30.8% / 50.0% |
23.1% / 29.4% |
2.3 / 4.3 |
36 / 72 |
40.0% / 45.2% |
44.4% / 61.1% |
47.1% / 41.2% |
6.2 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 4.2% |
72.2% / 47.2% |
39.7 / 22.7 |
6 |
@MIN |
17 – 27 L |
-8.0 |
37.1% / 54.1% |
11.4% / 10.8% |
3.2% / 3.0% |
5.9 / 5.8 |
40.0% / 42.4% |
30.0% / 18.2% |
3.1 / 5.9 |
55 / 70 |
48.8% / 54.7% |
38.2% / 48.6% |
41.3% / 31.3% |
4.9 / 5.9 |
1.8% / 1.4% |
36.4% / 47.1% |
25.5 / 30.9 |
7 |
DEN |
10 – 45 L |
-24.9 |
40.0% / 45.8% |
13.3% / 8.3% |
7.7% / 4.5% |
3.4 / 7.4 |
33.3% / 32.4% |
28.6% / 23.5% |
3.3 / 3.9 |
66 / 58 |
41.2% / 42.5% |
37.9% / 37.9% |
32.3% / 52.6% |
3.4 / 5.4 |
3.0% / 0.0% |
31.8% / 58.6% |
23.5 / 37.0 |
8 |
SF |
18 – 15 W |
-3.1 |
41.9% / 40.6% |
7.0% / 12.5% |
2.5% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 5.0 |
47.6% / 32.3% |
14.3% / 35.5% |
4.2 / 3.5 |
64 / 63 |
44.0% / 36.7% |
43.8% / 36.5% |
21.8% / 46.8% |
5.0 / 4.2 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
32.8% / 49.2% |
20.8 / 31.1 |
10 |
@KC |
14 – 26 L |
-8.0 |
36.4% / 54.5% |
11.4% / 15.2% |
5.1% / 0.0% |
3.8 / 6.4 |
57.7% / 45.8% |
7.7% / 33.3% |
3.7 / 5.0 |
70 / 57 |
44.2% / 56.8% |
44.3% / 50.9% |
34.1% / 58.3% |
3.7 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.1% / 42.1% |
23.7 / 36.2 |
11 |
OAK |
21 – 23 L |
-1.4 |
33.3% / 48.5% |
4.8% / 12.1% |
10.0% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 5.2 |
41.9% / 60.6% |
32.3% / 15.2% |
5.0 / 4.6 |
52 / 66 |
42.5% / 60.8% |
38.5% / 54.5% |
43.3% / 47.4% |
5.4 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
59.6% / 50.0% |
29.6 / 29.9 |
12 |
@LAC |
10 – 45 L |
-12.8 |
38.1% / 63.9% |
9.5% / 11.1% |
5.3% / 0.0% |
4.1 / 6.6 |
28.0% / 59.4% |
24.0% / 12.5% |
2.5 / 5.6 |
46 / 68 |
35.5% / 67.9% |
32.6% / 61.8% |
32.0% / 38.7% |
3.3 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
54.3% / 47.1% |
32.6 / 36.2 |
13 |
@GB |
20 – 17 W |
0.1 |
35.7% / 49.0% |
7.1% / 2.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.8 / 4.5 |
43.3% / 56.5% |
13.3% / 26.1% |
6.1 / 4.3 |
58 / 74 |
41.9% / 56.9% |
39.7% / 51.4% |
59.5% / 13.8% |
5.4 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
51.7% / 31.1% |
24.9 / 25.6 |
14 |
DET |
3 – 17 L |
-4.3 |
40.9% / 33.3% |
6.8% / 4.2% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
5.0 / 4.0 |
19.0% / 41.9% |
33.3% / 32.3% |
2.9 / 3.9 |
65 / 55 |
33.3% / 39.5% |
33.8% / 38.2% |
7.2% / 18.3% |
4.3 / 4.0 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
32.3% / 56.4% |
23.2 / 25.4 |
15 |
@ATL |
14 – 40 L |
-15.8 |
34.9% / 50.0% |
16.3% / 5.3% |
5.6% / 0.0% |
4.5 / 5.8 |
39.1% / 51.9% |
34.8% / 25.9% |
2.7 / 8.0 |
66 / 65 |
38.8% / 53.8% |
36.4% / 50.8% |
35.0% / 55.9% |
3.8 / 6.7 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
34.8% / 41.5% |
29.1 / 25.0 |