Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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LA Rams (-14) vs ARIZONA

Arizona’s offense has been abysmal the last 2 weeks without Christian Kirk and 4 of 5 starting linemen, gaining just 4.1 yards per play. I don’t see things getting any better for that unit against a Rams defensive front will generate significant pressure on Josh Rosen, who likely won’t have anyone open. Kirk was gaining 1.85 yards per route run with Rosen, but no other receiver is above 1.5 yards per route run. Larry Fitzgerald Is not as great as he used to be and he’ll be blanketed on the inside by Nickell Robey-Coleman, who concedes just 0.77 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd). Wade Phillips’ defense has been 1.1 yards per play better with Aqib Talib in the starting lineup this season and I don’t expect Arizona’s offense to be able to move the ball on Sunday.

The loss of Cooper Kupp is making a massive difference to the Rams offense. Los Angeles averaged a deceptive 38 points in the first 4 games without Kupp, as they gained only 5.8 yards per play in those games and the scoreboard finally reflected their issues the last two weeks. Sean McVay uses 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs) on 98% of plays, an incredibly high rate considering no other team is above 76%. The scheme makes the slot receiver significantly more valuable to the Rams offense than other teams because he is on the field for basically every snap. The drop-off from Kupp to Josh Reynolds on the inside is extreme. Kupp was gaining 2.27 yards per route run compared to Reynold’s 1.08 yards per route run and Kupp adds 0.44 more expected points per non-turnover target than Reynolds according to our numbers. I expect Jared Goff to bounce back after two poor performances, but the Rams offense is unlikely to reach their early-season heights as we approach the playoffs.

Our model likes the Rams but the situation strongly favors the Cardinals, who apply to a very good 73-17-1 ATS contrary angle that plays on the worst team when the combined average scoring margin differential of two teams is 20 points or more. The last time that angle applies was on Arizona at Kansas City and the Cardinals covered in a 14-26 loss. I’ll pass on the side since our model thinks the Rams should win by 20 or so points but the situation favors the Cardinals.

Team Stats
Game Log

Rams
Cardinals

LOS

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.4 35.3
Succ Pass Plays 52.1% 44.9%
Sack Rate 5.8% 7.2%
Int Rate 2.6% 3.1%
Deep Pass Rate 20.5% 20.5%
Big Pass Yards 42.6% 48.3%
NYPP 7.9 6.8

Rush

Rush Plays 28.0 25.1
RB YPR 4.6 4.6
Stuff Rate 17.0% 18.7%
Succ Rush Plays 52.5% 48.4%
Big Rush Yards 43.9% 41.2%
Yards Per Rush 4.6 4.8

Game

All Snaps 66.4 60.4
Early Down Succ 56.2% 47.9%
Succ Rate 52.0% 46.6%
Big Yards Rate 44.0% 48.5%
Yards Per Play 6.4 6.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 1.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.4 30.0
Run Ratio 42.2% 41.9%
Starting Field Pos 30.2 27.2
Game Control 3.2 -3.2

Points 32.0 24.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@OAK	33 – 13 W	1.4	44.1% / 48.8%	2.9% / 2.4%	0.0% / 7.5%	6.6 / 7.3	55.6% / 56.5%	3.7% / 17.4%	5.2 / 4.1	61 / 64	54.2% / 52.8%	49.2% / 51.6%	39.3% / 39.2%	6.0 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	44.3% / 35.9%	27.0 / 23.5
2	ARI	34 – 0 W	14.9	64.7% / 21.4%	5.9% / 3.6%	3.1% / 3.7%	10.1 / 3.0	48.5% / 33.3%	24.2% / 13.3%	2.7 / 3.6	67 / 43	59.2% / 23.3%	56.7% / 25.6%	51.9% / 0.0%	6.4 / 3.2	0.0% / 0.0%	49.3% / 34.9%	39.1 / 19.0
3	LAC	35 – 23 W	9.0	59.5% / 40.6%	2.7% / 6.3%	2.8% / 0.0%	9.5 / 6.7	62.2% / 60.0%	10.8% / 30.0%	4.7 / 7.1	74 / 52	62.7% / 45.9%	60.8% / 48.1%	45.5% / 62.9%	7.1 / 6.8	1.4% / 3.8%	50.0% / 38.5%	22.8 / 26.6
4	MIN	38 – 31 W	3.9	60.0% / 51.9%	2.9% / 7.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	13.0 / 7.3	57.1% / 35.3%	14.3% / 35.3%	4.8 / 3.2	56 / 71	68.1% / 45.3%	58.9% / 47.9%	55.7% / 38.8%	9.9 / 6.3	0.0% / 1.4%	37.5% / 23.9%	26.6 / 27.2
5	@SEA	33 – 31 W	-1.0	83.3% / 60.0%	4.2% / 13.3%	8.7% / 0.0%	13.0 / 12.2	40.6% / 53.1%	15.6% / 18.8%	4.9 / 5.9	56 / 47	56.9% / 44.2%	58.9% / 55.3%	49.1% / 66.5%	8.4 / 7.9	0.0% / 0.0%	57.1% / 68.1%	33.7 / 26.6
6	@DEN	23 – 20 W	8.2	30.3% / 48.8%	15.2% / 4.7%	3.6% / 2.4%	5.3 / 6.9	68.3% / 33.3%	2.4% / 16.7%	6.6 / 3.4	74 / 61	55.8% / 50.0%	51.4% / 44.3%	53.8% / 48.0%	6.0 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	55.4% / 29.5%	28.5 / 27.0
7	@SF	39 – 10 W	16.0	53.8% / 29.4%	7.7% / 20.6%	0.0% / 7.4%	7.1 / 3.6	57.9% / 62.5%	10.5% / 16.7%	3.9 / 4.5	64 / 58	67.4% / 47.8%	56.3% / 43.1%	37.1% / 68.9%	5.2 / 3.9	0.0% / 3.4%	59.4% / 41.4%	40.8 / 26.7
8	GB	29 – 27 W	-2.6	43.9% / 45.5%	12.2% / 9.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.9 / 7.7	42.9% / 63.2%	28.6% / 21.1%	3.9 / 5.6	76 / 52	43.6% / 58.1%	43.4% / 51.9%	51.3% / 69.4%	5.5 / 6.9	0.0% / 1.9%	46.1% / 36.5%	31.7 / 21.1
9	@NO	35 – 45 L	-6.9	55.0% / 58.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	2.5% / 0.0%	9.8 / 9.6	36.8% / 44.4%	21.1% / 11.1%	4.8 / 4.0	59 / 72	53.1% / 51.9%	49.2% / 51.4%	48.0% / 36.6%	8.2 / 6.8	0.0% / 1.4%	32.2% / 50.0%	30.0 / 31.4
10	SEA	36 – 31 W	0.6	53.7% / 48.3%	4.9% / 13.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.5 / 4.9	70.8% / 64.7%	8.3% / 14.7%	6.3 / 8.0	65 / 63	65.4% / 64.2%	60.0% / 57.1%	36.7% / 66.7%	7.0 / 6.6	0.0% / 1.6%	36.9% / 54.0%	30.2 / 24.1
11	KC	54 – 51 W	4.5	46.3% / 59.2%	9.3% / 6.1%	0.0% / 6.5%	7.0 / 9.1	39.1% / 45.0%	21.7% / 5.0%	3.4 / 4.9	77 / 69	48.3% / 55.2%	44.2% / 55.1%	49.2% / 57.7%	5.9 / 7.9	2.6% / 2.9%	29.9% / 29.0%	26.0 / 27.5
13	@DET	30 – 16 W	4.6	42.9% / 39.5%	5.7% / 10.5%	3.0% / 2.9%	5.6 / 5.5	45.2% / 46.2%	12.9% / 30.8%	4.9 / 3.9	66 / 64	47.1% / 48.1%	43.9% / 42.2%	38.7% / 46.8%	5.2 / 4.8	1.5% / 1.6%	47.0% / 40.6%	32.0 / 25.7
14	@CHI	6 – 15 L	-2.4	35.4% / 38.7%	6.3% / 3.2%	8.9% / 10.0%	3.4 / 3.2	53.8% / 43.2%	30.8% / 8.1%	4.0 / 5.3	61 / 68	43.5% / 42.9%	39.3% / 41.2%	28.0% / 38.2%	3.5 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	21.3% / 54.4%	29.1 / 36.3
15	PHI	23 – 30 L	-4.8	56.4% / 38.7%	1.8% / 0.0%	3.7% / 3.2%	6.0 / 8.7	55.6% / 36.7%	33.3% / 23.3%	4.6 / 3.7	73 / 61	61.7% / 40.4%	56.2% / 37.7%	32.2% / 39.6%	5.7 / 6.2	1.4% / 0.0%	24.7% / 49.2%	25.4 / 38.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	WAS	6 – 24 L	-13.7	700.0% / 600.0%	100.0% / 100.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	72.5 / 82.3	56.3% / 46.5%	12.5% / 25.6%	4.3 / 4.3	18 / 46	53.7% / 50.0%	127.8% / 82.6%	35.0% / 47.0%	11.9 / 9.3	5.6% / 2.2%	88.9% / 93.5%	29.3 / 18.0
2	@LA	0 – 34 L	-14.9	21.4% / 64.7%	3.6% / 5.9%	3.7% / 3.1%	3.0 / 10.1	33.3% / 48.5%	13.3% / 24.2%	3.6 / 2.7	43 / 67	23.3% / 59.2%	25.6% / 56.7%	0.0% / 51.9%	3.2 / 6.4	0.0% / 0.0%	34.9% / 49.3%	19.0 / 39.1
3	CHI	14 – 16 L	7.2	40.0% / 42.1%	13.3% / 7.9%	11.5% / 2.9%	5.6 / 5.1	33.3% / 54.8%	27.8% / 22.6%	2.9 / 3.9	48 / 69	40.5% / 50.0%	37.5% / 47.8%	58.8% / 37.7%	4.6 / 4.6	2.1% / 1.4%	37.5% / 44.9%	32.8 / 27.8
4	SEA	17 – 20 L	-2.0	42.9% / 48.1%	3.6% / 7.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.1 / 5.9	39.3% / 50.0%	35.7% / 23.5%	3.3 / 5.0	56 / 61	40.9% / 58.0%	41.1% / 49.2%	54.0% / 35.6%	4.7 / 5.4	1.8% / 0.0%	50.0% / 55.7%	26.4 / 35.5
5	@SF	28 – 18 W	6.1	80.0% / 71.1%	10.0% / 10.5%	0.0% / 5.9%	16.4 / 7.9	30.8% / 50.0%	23.1% / 29.4%	2.3 / 4.3	36 / 72	40.0% / 45.2%	44.4% / 61.1%	47.1% / 41.2%	6.2 / 6.2	0.0% / 4.2%	72.2% / 47.2%	39.7 / 22.7
6	@MIN	17 – 27 L	-8.0	37.1% / 54.1%	11.4% / 10.8%	3.2% / 3.0%	5.9 / 5.8	40.0% / 42.4%	30.0% / 18.2%	3.1 / 5.9	55 / 70	48.8% / 54.7%	38.2% / 48.6%	41.3% / 31.3%	4.9 / 5.9	1.8% / 1.4%	36.4% / 47.1%	25.5 / 30.9
7	DEN	10 – 45 L	-24.9	40.0% / 45.8%	13.3% / 8.3%	7.7% / 4.5%	3.4 / 7.4	33.3% / 32.4%	28.6% / 23.5%	3.3 / 3.9	66 / 58	41.2% / 42.5%	37.9% / 37.9%	32.3% / 52.6%	3.4 / 5.4	3.0% / 0.0%	31.8% / 58.6%	23.5 / 37.0
8	SF	18 – 15 W	-3.1	41.9% / 40.6%	7.0% / 12.5%	2.5% / 0.0%	5.4 / 5.0	47.6% / 32.3%	14.3% / 35.5%	4.2 / 3.5	64 / 63	44.0% / 36.7%	43.8% / 36.5%	21.8% / 46.8%	5.0 / 4.2	1.6% / 0.0%	32.8% / 49.2%	20.8 / 31.1
10	@KC	14 – 26 L	-8.0	36.4% / 54.5%	11.4% / 15.2%	5.1% / 0.0%	3.8 / 6.4	57.7% / 45.8%	7.7% / 33.3%	3.7 / 5.0	70 / 57	44.2% / 56.8%	44.3% / 50.9%	34.1% / 58.3%	3.7 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	37.1% / 42.1%	23.7 / 36.2
11	OAK	21 – 23 L	-1.4	33.3% / 48.5%	4.8% / 12.1%	10.0% / 0.0%	6.1 / 5.2	41.9% / 60.6%	32.3% / 15.2%	5.0 / 4.6	52 / 66	42.5% / 60.8%	38.5% / 54.5%	43.3% / 47.4%	5.4 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	59.6% / 50.0%	29.6 / 29.9
12	@LAC	10 – 45 L	-12.8	38.1% / 63.9%	9.5% / 11.1%	5.3% / 0.0%	4.1 / 6.6	28.0% / 59.4%	24.0% / 12.5%	2.5 / 5.6	46 / 68	35.5% / 67.9%	32.6% / 61.8%	32.0% / 38.7%	3.3 / 6.1	0.0% / 1.5%	54.3% / 47.1%	32.6 / 36.2
13	@GB	20 – 17 W	0.1	35.7% / 49.0%	7.1% / 2.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.8 / 4.5	43.3% / 56.5%	13.3% / 26.1%	6.1 / 4.3	58 / 74	41.9% / 56.9%	39.7% / 51.4%	59.5% / 13.8%	5.4 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	51.7% / 31.1%	24.9 / 25.6
14	DET	3 – 17 L	-4.3	40.9% / 33.3%	6.8% / 4.2%	2.4% / 0.0%	5.0 / 4.0	19.0% / 41.9%	33.3% / 32.3%	2.9 / 3.9	65 / 55	33.3% / 39.5%	33.8% / 38.2%	7.2% / 18.3%	4.3 / 4.0	0.0% / 1.8%	32.3% / 56.4%	23.2 / 25.4
15	@ATL	14 – 40 L	-15.8	34.9% / 50.0%	16.3% / 5.3%	5.6% / 0.0%	4.5 / 5.8	39.1% / 51.9%	34.8% / 25.9%	2.7 / 8.0	66 / 65	38.8% / 53.8%	36.4% / 50.8%	35.0% / 55.9%	3.8 / 6.7	1.5% / 0.0%	34.8% / 41.5%	29.1 / 25.0

Los Angeles Rams @

Arizona Cardinals

Sun, Dec 23

1:05 PM Pacific

Game Analysis