Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – LA Chargers Team Total Under (21.5 -120)

Alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is NY JETS (+3 EV)

· The Chargers have a league-low 37.3% success rate since week 4 when starting C Corey Linsely and WR Mike Williams went out. Los Angeles averaged 5.4 yppl last week versus Chicago but most of it came from Austin Ekeler’s 94 receiving yards.

· RB Austin Ekeler is averaging 1.79 yards per route run since coming back from a high ankle sprain in week 6 (3rd) but he will be limited in this game as New York’s defense is conceding only a 34% pass success rate to running backs (4th).

· Ekeler will also struggle running the ball against a Jets rush defense conceding a 35.2% success rate (6th).

· Justin Herbert will have to turn elsewhere tonight. Chargers WR Keenan Allen is averaging 0.51 EPA/target (10th) but he will be contained on the inside by nickelback Michael Carter, who is allowing a league-low 0.42 yards per cover snap in the slot.

· Zach Wilson has allowed a 43.4% pressure rate (3rd-highest) and there will be 3 starters on New York’s offensive line out this week in LT Duane Brown, G/T Alijah Vera-Tucker, and C Connor McGovern.

· Los Angeles edge rusher Khalil Mack has 30 pressures (16th) and he will wreak havoc across from LT Mekhi Becton, who ranks 7th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.

· The Jets’ interior offensive line is responsible for a league-high 65.3% of the total pressures and they will struggle versus interior defender Morgan Fox, who ranks 7th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· New York RB Breece Hall has found a way to lead the NFL with 5.7 yards per carry despite the offensive line woes. Hall had a league-leading 10 forced missed tackles last week.

· Our model favors the Jets by 0.4 points, with a predicted total of 38.5 points, but the Chargers’ Team Total under is the more reliable play because it takes the Jets’ offense out of play.

Strong Opinion on LA Chargers Team Total Under 21.5 (-120) at -130 or better (or Under 21 to -115).