Los Angeles Chargers @

New York Jets

Sun, Dec 24
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 107
Odds: New York Jets +6.5, Total: 42.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – NEW YORK JETS (+6.5/+7) over Los Angeles Chargers

Jets defensive lineman Leonard Williams, whose 41 pressures this season rank 9th among all interior defenders, is listed as questionable and Philip Rivers will likely see extra time in the pocket if Williams is unable to suit up. Melvin Gordon has seen the 6th-most targets out of the backfield this season and he will have a nice matchup facing a New York defense surrendering 6.8 yards per target to opposing running backs (30th).

My quarterback model showed a 5-point difference from Josh McCown to Bryce Petty and last week’s performance certainly didn’t do anything to change that adjustment. Petty threw for just 4.3 yards per pass play and his 2 interceptions brought his career interception rate to 5.0%, more than double the league average. Los Angeles’s defense has shown the capability to be opportunistic against turnover-prone quarterbacks with 7 takeaways in 6 quarters against DeShone Kizer and Nathan Peterman. The Jets will need to rely on their run game facing a Chargers rush defense ranked 31st in my numbers defending the run.

This is a west coast team traveling east for an early game situation but I think much of the value is gone since I get Chargers by 5.7 points even after incorporating that into my model. However, the Chargers do apply to a 91-167-8 ATS last road game situation and dogs are the way to go in week 16 (week 16 dogs of 2 points or more are 60% ATS the last 20 years).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Chargers
  • Jets
LAC
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 37.2 36.1
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.4% 42.9%
  • Sack Rate 3.4% 7.7%
  • Int Rate 2.2% 3.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 16.9% 19.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 38.0% 35.6%
  • NYPP 7.2 5.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 26.9 27.2
  • RB YPR 3.9 4.7
  • Stuff Rate 28.5% 23.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 37.6% 47.2%
  • Big Rush Yards 50.8% 42.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.8 4.8




Game

  • All Snaps 64.1 63.4
  • Early Down Succ 44.7% 46.6%
  • Succ Rate 42.6% 44.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 41.4% 39.8%
  • Yards Per Play 5.8 5.2
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.0 29.1
  • Run Ratio 41.3% 42.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.5 27.2
  • Game Control 1.8 -1.8
 
  • Points 22.2 18.2
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