Game Analysis
Lean – NEW YORK JETS (+6.5/+7) over Los Angeles Chargers
Jets defensive lineman Leonard Williams, whose 41 pressures this season rank 9th among all interior defenders, is listed as questionable and Philip Rivers will likely see extra time in the pocket if Williams is unable to suit up. Melvin Gordon has seen the 6th-most targets out of the backfield this season and he will have a nice matchup facing a New York defense surrendering 6.8 yards per target to opposing running backs (30th).
My quarterback model showed a 5-point difference from Josh McCown to Bryce Petty and last week’s performance certainly didn’t do anything to change that adjustment. Petty threw for just 4.3 yards per pass play and his 2 interceptions brought his career interception rate to 5.0%, more than double the league average. Los Angeles’s defense has shown the capability to be opportunistic against turnover-prone quarterbacks with 7 takeaways in 6 quarters against DeShone Kizer and Nathan Peterman. The Jets will need to rely on their run game facing a Chargers rush defense ranked 31st in my numbers defending the run.
This is a west coast team traveling east for an early game situation but I think much of the value is gone since I get Chargers by 5.7 points even after incorporating that into my model. However, the Chargers do apply to a 91-167-8 ATS last road game situation and dogs are the way to go in week 16 (week 16 dogs of 2 points or more are 60% ATS the last 20 years).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.2
36.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.4%
42.9%
-
Sack Rate
3.4%
7.7%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
3.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.9%
19.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.0%
35.6%
-
NYPP
7.2
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.9
27.2
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.7
-
Stuff Rate
28.5%
23.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
37.6%
47.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
50.8%
42.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.8
Game
-
All Snaps
64.1
63.4
-
Early Down Succ
44.7%
46.6%
-
Succ Rate
42.6%
44.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.4%
39.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.0
29.1
-
Run Ratio
41.3%
42.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.5
27.2
-
Game Control
1.8
-1.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.4
36.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.2%
45.0%
-
Sack Rate
8.5%
4.9%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
2.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.5%
21.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.7%
43.5%
-
NYPP
6.0
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.0
29.0
-
RB YPR
3.4
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
30.6%
28.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
35.2%
40.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.6%
38.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
62.4
65.0
-
Early Down Succ
42.0%
44.5%
-
Succ Rate
39.9%
42.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.7%
42.8%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.7
27.5
-
Run Ratio
44.5%
43.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.1
29.5
-
Game Control
-0.9
0.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@DEN |
21 – 24 L |
-6.6 |
47.1% / 50.0% |
2.9% / 12.5% |
3.0% / 3.6% |
5.4 / 5.7 |
27.3% / 40.5% |
31.8% / 18.9% |
2.9 / 3.8 |
56 / 69 |
42.9% / 44.2% |
39.3% / 44.9% |
27.7% / 47.8% |
4.4 / 4.7 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
39.3% / 53.6% |
31.6 / 31.8 |
2 |
MIA |
17 – 19 L |
2.0 |
62.5% / 44.4% |
2.5% / 5.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.1 / 6.3 |
28.6% / 36.4% |
50.0% / 30.3% |
3.1 / 3.4 |
54 / 69 |
58.7% / 43.4% |
53.7% / 40.6% |
28.6% / 38.9% |
6.8 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
25.9% / 47.8% |
24.9 / 26.4 |
3 |
KC |
10 – 24 L |
-8.0 |
35.7% / 34.6% |
4.8% / 19.2% |
7.5% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 4.7 |
34.6% / 56.0% |
34.6% / 20.0% |
4.0 / 7.6 |
68 / 51 |
34.5% / 50.0% |
35.3% / 45.1% |
39.1% / 55.0% |
4.9 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.2% / 49.0% |
22.8 / 30.5 |
4 |
PHI |
24 – 26 L |
-6.2 |
42.5% / 46.9% |
5.0% / 3.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.6 / 7.5 |
38.5% / 47.7% |
46.2% / 20.5% |
4.5 / 4.9 |
53 / 76 |
39.5% / 47.3% |
41.5% / 47.4% |
68.3% / 56.1% |
7.5 / 6.0 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
24.5% / 57.9% |
22.2 / 22.1 |
5 |
@NYG |
27 – 22 W |
-2.4 |
36.4% / 34.1% |
0.0% / 12.2% |
2.3% / 2.8% |
5.9 / 4.5 |
31.3% / 72.0% |
21.9% / 12.0% |
3.9 / 6.1 |
76 / 66 |
34.0% / 54.0% |
34.2% / 48.5% |
36.2% / 46.3% |
5.1 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
42.1% / 37.9% |
29.0 / 28.2 |
6 |
@OAK |
17 – 16 W |
-3.2 |
45.9% / 51.6% |
2.7% / 3.2% |
0.0% / 6.7% |
7.1 / 5.3 |
21.9% / 50.0% |
18.8% / 31.8% |
2.6 / 5.0 |
69 / 53 |
34.0% / 52.5% |
34.8% / 50.9% |
33.6% / 35.4% |
5.0 / 5.2 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
46.4% / 41.5% |
24.7 / 31.7 |
7 |
DEN |
21 – 0 W |
11.1 |
34.5% / 35.0% |
10.3% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
5.6 / 4.6 |
19.2% / 21.1% |
42.3% / 21.1% |
3.1 / 3.6 |
55 / 59 |
28.6% / 32.6% |
27.3% / 30.5% |
44.6% / 13.5% |
4.4 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 3.4% |
47.3% / 32.2% |
29.8 / 23.2 |
8 |
@NE |
13 – 21 L |
-4.4 |
46.7% / 50.0% |
3.3% / 6.0% |
3.4% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 6.3 |
66.7% / 43.8% |
19.0% / 28.1% |
7.5 / 3.0 |
51 / 82 |
60.0% / 46.8% |
54.9% / 47.6% |
38.7% / 21.3% |
6.8 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
41.2% / 39.0% |
20.5 / 30.5 |
10 |
@JAC |
17 – 20 L |
0.3 |
43.2% / 37.0% |
0.0% / 5.6% |
2.7% / 3.9% |
6.4 / 4.9 |
48.4% / 29.6% |
25.8% / 29.6% |
2.8 / 5.0 |
68 / 81 |
54.9% / 36.1% |
45.6% / 34.6% |
38.4% / 34.7% |
4.8 / 4.9 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
45.6% / 33.3% |
21.1 / 30.7 |
11 |
BUF |
54 – 24 W |
21.2 |
56.8% / 45.0% |
2.7% / 2.5% |
0.0% / 12.8% |
7.6 / 5.5 |
34.2% / 50.0% |
31.6% / 36.4% |
3.9 / 7.9 |
75 / 62 |
48.2% / 47.8% |
45.3% / 46.8% |
41.2% / 49.1% |
5.8 / 6.3 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
50.7% / 35.5% |
44.0 / 21.7 |
12 |
@DAL |
28 – 6 W |
6.7 |
57.6% / 51.7% |
0.0% / 6.9% |
0.0% / 7.4% |
13.2 / 5.8 |
26.3% / 80.0% |
18.4% / 10.0% |
2.2 / 4.0 |
71 / 49 |
41.7% / 65.8% |
40.8% / 63.3% |
53.2% / 15.4% |
7.3 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
53.5% / 40.8% |
20.6 / 23.3 |
13 |
CLE |
19 – 10 W |
4.7 |
56.8% / 34.3% |
2.3% / 8.6% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
7.6 / 5.8 |
40.7% / 45.5% |
29.6% / 31.8% |
3.6 / 4.0 |
71 / 57 |
52.9% / 37.8% |
50.7% / 38.6% |
35.7% / 68.0% |
6.1 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
38.0% / 38.6% |
26.6 / 24.3 |
14 |
WAS |
30 – 13 W |
15.3 |
41.7% / 37.9% |
5.6% / 6.9% |
2.9% / 3.7% |
8.7 / 4.7 |
45.7% / 38.1% |
11.4% / 19.0% |
5.0 / 3.1 |
71 / 50 |
44.6% / 44.4% |
43.7% / 38.0% |
58.6% / 30.3% |
6.9 / 4.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.3% / 42.0% |
31.5 / 21.8 |
15 |
@KC |
13 – 30 L |
-4.6 |
42.1% / 48.4% |
5.3% / 3.2% |
8.3% / 0.0% |
5.5 / 7.2 |
63.6% / 50.0% |
18.2% / 15.6% |
4.5 / 5.4 |
60 / 63 |
51.1% / 50.0% |
50.0% / 49.2% |
35.2% / 45.3% |
5.1 / 6.3 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
36.7% / 50.8% |
22.3 / 34.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@BUF |
12 – 21 L |
-3.8 |
37.5% / 43.3% |
2.5% / 6.7% |
5.1% / 3.6% |
4.4 / 7.3 |
25.0% / 33.3% |
31.3% / 24.4% |
2.4 / 4.3 |
56 / 75 |
35.9% / 37.7% |
33.9% / 37.3% |
26.5% / 68.1% |
3.8 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.6% / 60.0% |
29.7 / 25.3 |
2 |
@OAK |
20 – 45 L |
-11.6 |
44.8% / 64.3% |
13.8% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.0 / 8.2 |
61.5% / 40.7% |
19.2% / 33.3% |
4.9 / 6.7 |
55 / 55 |
53.7% / 48.8% |
52.7% / 52.7% |
43.0% / 56.1% |
4.9 / 7.5 |
3.6% / 0.0% |
47.3% / 49.1% |
27.1 / 35.7 |
3 |
MIA |
20 – 6 W |
9.8 |
52.0% / 41.7% |
8.0% / 6.3% |
0.0% / 4.4% |
9.3 / 4.1 |
37.1% / 46.7% |
34.3% / 46.7% |
3.0 / 2.0 |
60 / 63 |
48.9% / 54.2% |
43.3% / 42.9% |
40.1% / 11.6% |
5.6 / 3.6 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
58.3% / 23.8% |
31.4 / 23.7 |
4 |
JAC |
23 – 20 W |
2.3 |
44.4% / 30.6% |
13.9% / 2.8% |
3.2% / 2.9% |
6.0 / 3.8 |
31.3% / 57.5% |
43.8% / 20.0% |
8.0 / 4.4 |
68 / 76 |
37.3% / 50.8% |
38.2% / 44.7% |
68.6% / 27.6% |
6.9 / 4.1 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
47.1% / 52.6% |
29.5 / 27.0 |
5 |
@CLE |
17 – 14 W |
1.7 |
51.5% / 45.9% |
9.1% / 2.7% |
3.3% / 5.6% |
5.4 / 7.5 |
19.0% / 45.5% |
33.3% / 18.2% |
1.8 / 4.2 |
54 / 70 |
45.9% / 46.3% |
38.9% / 45.7% |
32.1% / 40.1% |
4.0 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
38.9% / 47.1% |
29.0 / 30.1 |
6 |
NE |
17 – 24 L |
0.1 |
54.0% / 39.5% |
8.0% / 0.0% |
4.3% / 2.6% |
6.7 / 6.8 |
40.0% / 61.5% |
24.0% / 7.7% |
3.0 / 4.6 |
75 / 64 |
50.9% / 49.0% |
49.3% / 48.4% |
46.0% / 29.5% |
5.5 / 5.9 |
1.3% / 1.6% |
33.3% / 40.6% |
24.0 / 28.7 |
7 |
@MIA |
28 – 31 L |
5.2 |
36.7% / 52.5% |
10.0% / 7.5% |
3.7% / 5.4% |
6.0 / 7.6 |
34.8% / 24.0% |
30.4% / 44.0% |
4.0 / 2.1 |
53 / 65 |
37.5% / 42.3% |
35.8% / 41.5% |
61.9% / 53.8% |
5.2 / 5.5 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
43.4% / 38.5% |
29.3 / 31.2 |
8 |
ATL |
20 – 25 L |
1.1 |
51.4% / 50.0% |
8.6% / 3.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 8.2 |
22.7% / 37.5% |
36.4% / 28.1% |
2.0 / 4.4 |
57 / 62 |
41.5% / 45.8% |
40.4% / 43.5% |
40.1% / 53.1% |
4.9 / 6.2 |
1.8% / 3.2% |
38.6% / 51.6% |
36.9 / 26.1 |
9 |
BUF |
34 – 21 W |
9.6 |
42.9% / 48.9% |
4.8% / 14.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.5 / 5.2 |
38.6% / 27.3% |
29.5% / 40.9% |
4.5 / 2.9 |
65 / 69 |
43.5% / 42.3% |
40.0% / 42.0% |
55.4% / 31.6% |
5.1 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 4.3% |
67.7% / 31.9% |
38.0 / 25.2 |
10 |
@TB |
10 – 15 L |
-3.4 |
28.9% / 40.0% |
13.3% / 2.9% |
2.6% / 2.9% |
4.9 / 5.2 |
21.1% / 28.1% |
42.1% / 28.1% |
2.9 / 2.8 |
64 / 67 |
27.7% / 32.7% |
26.6% / 34.3% |
46.2% / 23.2% |
4.3 / 4.1 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
29.7% / 47.8% |
19.0 / 36.0 |
12 |
CAR |
27 – 35 L |
-3.0 |
48.6% / 29.0% |
8.1% / 9.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.6 / 5.0 |
38.5% / 39.4% |
26.9% / 36.4% |
4.2 / 4.4 |
63 / 64 |
46.9% / 36.7% |
44.4% / 34.4% |
54.5% / 50.5% |
6.2 / 4.7 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
41.3% / 51.6% |
27.7 / 25.3 |
13 |
KC |
38 – 31 W |
-0.6 |
58.3% / 54.3% |
0.0% / 5.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.2 / 10.3 |
43.1% / 54.5% |
29.4% / 9.1% |
3.1 / 10.2 |
87 / 46 |
46.8% / 59.5% |
49.4% / 54.3% |
40.8% / 74.5% |
5.6 / 10.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
58.6% / 23.9% |
24.0 / 27.2 |
14 |
@DEN |
0 – 23 L |
-13.5 |
24.0% / 39.4% |
16.0% / 6.1% |
4.8% / 0.0% |
1.6 / 5.7 |
33.3% / 25.0% |
33.3% / 36.1% |
2.5 / 2.4 |
49 / 69 |
33.3% / 28.6% |
28.6% / 31.9% |
11.9% / 26.3% |
2.1 / 4.0 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
49.0% / 52.2% |
21.2 / 40.5 |
15 |
@NO |
19 – 31 L |
-6.4 |
30.0% / 50.0% |
2.5% / 0.0% |
5.1% / 2.8% |
4.3 / 7.9 |
46.4% / 41.4% |
14.3% / 20.7% |
4.4 / 4.6 |
68 / 65 |
38.5% / 48.1% |
36.8% / 46.2% |
44.9% / 53.0% |
4.3 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 3.1% |
41.2% / 44.6% |
25.9 / 31.3 |