Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – LA Chargers (pk) over MINNESOTA

· The Chargers had just a 47% pass play rate versus the two-high Dolphins defense in week 1 and then they had a 68% pass rate last Sunday against the Titans, who are allowing 0.16 EPA/dropback (25th).

· Justin Herbert was bombing the ball with a 10.6-yard average depth of target in Tennessee which was his highest mark since his rookie year. Los Angeles WR Kennan Allen’s deep route rate has doubled to 16% under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.

· Moore has shown he’s flexible in his offensive approach and the Chargers may turn back to the ground game this week. Minnesota’s pass defense has been better than expected under Brian Flores conceding just a 36% dropback success rate (3rd).

· However, the Vikings are allowing a 49% rush success rate (29th) and the Chargers lead the NFL averaging 0.12 EPA/rush. Joshua Kelley will not be a major downgrade from Austin Ekeler, who gained only 0.16 yards more after contact per rush than Kelly last season.

· The Vikings’ ground game has been a disaster, averaging a league worst -0.60 EPA/rush.

· Kirk Cousins will likely keep slinging it in this matchup, but I doubt his late-down success will continue. Cousins is averaging 6.3 yppp on early downs and a whopping 10.4 yppp on 3rd and 4th downs this season. The disparity is unlikely to continue.

· The Vikings aren’t noticeably better than the Chargers at any position on the field except for maybe receiver, but even then the Los Angeles depth dwarfs Minnesota’s WR depth. Any case for the Vikings here would have come from a perceived massive schematic advantage to which I do not subscribe.

· Our model favors the Chargers by 1.5 points, with a predicted total of 52.2 points, and LA applies to a 216-117-10 ATS bounce-back situation.

The Chargers are a Strong Opinion at -1 or better.