Game Analysis

KANSAS CITY (-5.5) vs LA Chargers

• Patrick Mahomes averaged a career-low -0.54 EPA/dropback last week. Kansas City’s receivers had 5 drops, and Houston’s defense had a 50% pressure rate with the Chiefs missing four offensive linemen.
• Kansas City’s offense will again likely be without RT Jawaan Taylor, LT Josh Simmons, and backup LT Wayna Morris. Taylor ranks 10th in pass blocking efficiency, and Simmons ranks 20th in pass blocking efficiency.
• Chiefs’ backup LT Esa Pole held Danielle Hunter to 1 pressure on 21 matchups and that one pressure was after 4.2 seconds. Pole is the 1st tackle to face Hunter more than 20 dropbacks and allow less than 2 pressures. I expect Pole to take a step back this week, but it was more promising than it initially looked when Morris went down.
• Kansas City RG Trey Smith has been downgraded to out. he ranks 14th in pass blocking efficiency.
• Mahomes will have stability on the interior offensive line and enough time to target Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, who will want redemption after his drop turned into a game-costing interception last Sunday night. Kelce is averaging 0.46 EPA/target (2nd), and the Chargers are allowing a 60% success rate to opposing tight ends (28th).
• Kansas City’s offense has a 2.6% explosive rush rate, the lowest in the last five seasons, and it’ll be all on Mahomes to realize their small postseason chances.
• Chiefs’ All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie was knocked out of last week’s game, but he should suit up for this game.
• Kansas City’s defense has a 41% pressure rate (4th), and they and they should have their way with a Chargers’ offensive line that ranks 30th in pass blocking efficiency. The Chargers surrendered a season-high 7 sacks last Monday night.
• Los Angeles RG Mekhi Becton has surrendered 29 pressures (5th-most), and he will struggle across from interior defender Chris Jones, who ranks 6th in pass rushing efficiency.
• Justin Herbert will look for TE Oronde Gadsden, who has a 63% success rate (2nd). The Chiefs’ defense is allowing 0.30 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (25th).
• Our model makes Kansas City a 2.2-point favorite, with a predicted total of 39.2 points (although teams coming off a Monday OT game are 26-11-1 Over). Kansas City does apply to a 31-7 ATS home favorite division revenge situation and I think the True line in this game is 4 points.