Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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**KANSAS CITY (+1) over Los Angeles Chargers

Kansas City’s offense has been resurgent the last 2 weeks under new play-caller Matt Nagy. The Chiefs are averaging 7.6 yards per play under Nagy and the difference is the deep ball. Alex Smith, known for his propensity to check-down, threw just 9.4% of his passes deeper than 20 yards downfield in 2016. In Kansas City’s 5-0 start to the season, Smith upped his deep ball rate to 12.0% before dropping to 10.9% over the next 6 games. Smith’s deep ball rate is a whopping 19.4% with Nagy calling the plays and he will now put this new philosophy to the test against a Chargers defense surrendering just 5.5 yards per pass play (3rd). San Diego is not going to make it easy for Kansas City but the threat of the deep pass should open things up underneath and could lead to a big game for TE Travis Kelce, who averages 8.8 yards per pass play as Smith’s favorite target. The Chargers are very good defending wide receivers but they have been below average defending tight ends this season and they’ve been horrible defending the run (4.7 ypr allowed).

Kareem Hunt gained 177 rushing yards in the Chiefs’ 24-10 win over the Chargers in Los Angeles and the renewed success of the passing game has opened up lanes on the ground, as the Chiefs have averaged 6.3 yards per rush the last 2 games since opening up their attack – numbers similar to the success Hunt had early in the season when the Chiefs were throwing the ball deep more often. I expect another good performance from Hunt in this game.

Chargers’ top receiver Keenan Allen has 4 straight 100-yard receiving games but there’s reason to believe he can be slowed down on Saturday. Marcus Peters, 16th among cornerbacks in yards allowed per cover snap, will be rested after returning from suspension and Darrelle Revis has been solid in limited action thus far, only allowing 0.6 yards per cover snap, in line with Aqib Talib and Patrick Peterson for context.

The Chargers’ 2^nd most targeted receiver is running back Melvin Gordon, who ranks 7th among running backs in targets this season. However, Gordon only averages 4.7 yards per target and the Chiefs have allowed the fewest receiving yards to opposing running backs of any team this season – largely because Derek Johnson leads all linebackers in yards allowed per cover snap by a wide margin. Philip Rivers averaged just 5.1 yards per pass play in the first meeting with Keenan Allen being held in check (a modest 7.6 yards per target on 8 targets) and the running backs combining for just 18 yards on 8 targets.

I don’t expect Rivers to struggle as much as he did in that first meeting, as the Chargers’ offense is in a better rhythm lately, but that good stretch of games actually sets up the Chargers in a negative 46-114-7 ATS letdown situation and the line has certainly been affected by their recent run of success (which is why that particular angle works). The line on this game prior to last week was Kansas City by 2 points and this line has moved 3 points from that look-ahead number despite both teams dominating pretty equally last week. Our NFL model favors Kansas City 3 points and I believe that the Chiefs are back to their good early season form offensively with Nagy now calling the plays. There is line value and a favorable situation and I’ll take Kansas City in a 2-Star Best Bet +1 and for 1-Star at pick or -1.

Team Stats
Game Log

Chargers
Chiefs

LAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.2 36.5
Succ Pass Plays 46.7% 42.5%
Sack Rate 3.2% 8.1%
Int Rate 1.7% 3.6%
Deep Pass Rate 16.4% 20.3%
Big Pass Yards 38.4% 34.7%
NYPP 7.4 5.5

Rush

Rush Plays 27.3 26.8
RB YPR 3.8 4.6
Stuff Rate 29.3% 23.8%
Succ Rush Plays 35.6% 47.0%
Big Rush Yards 51.7% 42.7%
Yards Per Rush 3.8 4.7

Game

All Snaps 64.5 63.4
Early Down Succ 44.2% 46.4%
Succ Rate 42.1% 44.4%
Big Yards Rate 41.8% 39.4%
Yards Per Play 5.8 5.1
Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.1 28.9
Run Ratio 41.7% 42.2%
Starting Field Pos 26.9 26.6
Game Control 2.3 -2.3

Points 22.9 17.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DEN	21 – 24 L	-6.6	47.1% / 50.0%	2.9% / 12.5%	3.0% / 3.6%	5.4 / 5.7	27.3% / 40.5%	31.8% / 18.9%	2.9 / 3.8	56 / 69	42.9% / 44.2%	39.3% / 44.9%	27.7% / 47.8%	4.4 / 4.7	0.0% / 1.4%	39.3% / 53.6%	31.6 / 31.8
2	MIA	17 – 19 L	2.0	62.5% / 44.4%	2.5% / 5.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.1 / 6.3	28.6% / 36.4%	50.0% / 30.3%	3.1 / 3.4	54 / 69	58.7% / 43.4%	53.7% / 40.6%	28.6% / 38.9%	6.8 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	25.9% / 47.8%	24.9 / 26.4
3	KC	10 – 24 L	-8.0	35.7% / 34.6%	4.8% / 19.2%	7.5% / 0.0%	5.4 / 4.7	34.6% / 56.0%	34.6% / 20.0%	4.0 / 7.6	68 / 51	34.5% / 50.0%	35.3% / 45.1%	39.1% / 55.0%	4.9 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	38.2% / 49.0%	22.8 / 30.5
4	PHI	24 – 26 L	-6.2	42.5% / 46.9%	5.0% / 3.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.6 / 7.5	38.5% / 47.7%	46.2% / 20.5%	4.5 / 4.9	53 / 76	39.5% / 47.3%	41.5% / 47.4%	68.3% / 56.1%	7.5 / 6.0	1.9% / 0.0%	24.5% / 57.9%	22.2 / 22.1
5	@NYG	27 – 22 W	-2.4	36.4% / 34.1%	0.0% / 12.2%	2.3% / 2.8%	5.9 / 4.5	31.3% / 72.0%	21.9% / 12.0%	3.9 / 6.1	76 / 66	34.0% / 54.0%	34.2% / 48.5%	36.2% / 46.3%	5.1 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.5%	42.1% / 37.9%	29.0 / 28.2
6	@OAK	17 – 16 W	-3.2	45.9% / 51.6%	2.7% / 3.2%	0.0% / 6.7%	7.1 / 5.3	21.9% / 50.0%	18.8% / 31.8%	2.6 / 5.0	69 / 53	34.0% / 52.5%	34.8% / 50.9%	33.6% / 35.4%	5.0 / 5.2	1.4% / 0.0%	46.4% / 41.5%	24.7 / 31.7
7	DEN	21 – 0 W	11.1	34.5% / 35.0%	10.3% / 12.5%	0.0% / 2.9%	5.6 / 4.6	19.2% / 21.1%	42.3% / 21.1%	3.1 / 3.6	55 / 59	28.6% / 32.6%	27.3% / 30.5%	44.6% / 13.5%	4.4 / 4.3	0.0% / 3.4%	47.3% / 32.2%	29.8 / 23.2
8	@NE	13 – 21 L	-4.4	46.7% / 50.0%	3.3% / 6.0%	3.4% / 0.0%	6.4 / 6.3	66.7% / 43.8%	19.0% / 28.1%	7.5 / 3.0	51 / 82	60.0% / 46.8%	54.9% / 47.6%	38.7% / 21.3%	6.8 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	41.2% / 39.0%	20.5 / 30.5
10	@JAC	17 – 20 L	0.3	43.2% / 37.0%	0.0% / 5.6%	2.7% / 3.9%	6.4 / 4.9	48.4% / 29.6%	25.8% / 29.6%	2.8 / 5.0	68 / 81	54.9% / 36.1%	45.6% / 34.6%	38.4% / 34.7%	4.8 / 4.9	1.5% / 0.0%	45.6% / 33.3%	21.1 / 30.7
11	BUF	54 – 24 W	21.2	56.8% / 45.0%	2.7% / 2.5%	0.0% / 12.8%	7.6 / 5.5	34.2% / 50.0%	31.6% / 36.4%	3.9 / 7.9	75 / 62	48.2% / 47.8%	45.3% / 46.8%	41.2% / 49.1%	5.8 / 6.3	0.0% / 1.6%	50.7% / 35.5%	44.0 / 21.7
12	@DAL	28 – 6 W	6.7	57.6% / 51.7%	0.0% / 6.9%	0.0% / 7.4%	13.2 / 5.8	26.3% / 80.0%	18.4% / 10.0%	2.2 / 4.0	71 / 49	41.7% / 65.8%	40.8% / 63.3%	53.2% / 15.4%	7.3 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	53.5% / 40.8%	20.6 / 23.3
13	CLE	19 – 10 W	4.7	56.8% / 34.3%	2.3% / 8.6%	0.0% / 3.1%	7.6 / 5.8	40.7% / 45.5%	29.6% / 31.8%	3.6 / 4.0	71 / 57	52.9% / 37.8%	50.7% / 38.6%	35.7% / 68.0%	6.1 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.8%	38.0% / 38.6%	26.6 / 24.3
14	WAS	30 – 13 W	15.3	41.7% / 37.9%	5.6% / 6.9%	2.9% / 3.7%	8.7 / 4.7	45.7% / 38.1%	11.4% / 19.0%	5.0 / 3.1	71 / 50	44.6% / 44.4%	43.7% / 38.0%	58.6% / 30.3%	6.9 / 4.0	0.0% / 0.0%	49.3% / 42.0%	31.5 / 21.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NE	42 – 27 W	-1.8	60.5% / 33.3%	7.9% / 7.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.3 / 6.3	42.4% / 50.0%	9.1% / 25.0%	5.7 / 3.5	71 / 75	63.5% / 46.4%	52.1% / 41.3%	53.7% / 54.8%	7.6 / 5.0	1.4% / 0.0%	46.5% / 48.0%	25.5 / 27.8
2	PHI	27 – 20 W	2.0	50.0% / 44.2%	12.5% / 11.5%	0.0% / 2.2%	7.3 / 5.8	47.4% / 58.8%	26.3% / 17.6%	5.9 / 6.3	51 / 69	51.3% / 46.3%	49.0% / 47.8%	45.3% / 42.4%	6.7 / 5.9	0.0% / 1.4%	37.3% / 24.6%	35.6 / 26.1
3	@LAC	24 – 10 W	8.0	34.6% / 35.7%	19.2% / 4.8%	0.0% / 7.5%	4.7 / 5.4	56.0% / 34.6%	20.0% / 34.6%	7.6 / 4.0	51 / 68	50.0% / 34.5%	45.1% / 35.3%	55.0% / 39.1%	6.1 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	49.0% / 38.2%	30.5 / 22.8
4	WAS	29 – 20 W	-4.3	47.5% / 45.8%	10.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.5 / 9.2	58.1% / 51.9%	19.4% / 14.8%	5.4 / 4.1	71 / 51	51.7% / 54.1%	52.1% / 49.0%	43.4% / 57.2%	6.0 / 6.5	0.0% / 2.0%	43.7% / 52.9%	21.2 / 26.8
5	@HOU	42 – 34 W	9.9	57.9% / 46.9%	2.6% / 9.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.5 / 7.8	40.0% / 60.9%	34.3% / 13.0%	3.6 / 6.3	73 / 55	47.4% / 56.8%	49.3% / 52.7%	31.6% / 64.8%	6.2 / 7.1	0.0% / 1.8%	47.9% / 41.8%	31.2 / 27.6
6	PIT	13 – 19 L	-5.8	35.1% / 57.7%	8.1% / 3.8%	0.0% / 4.0%	6.0 / 9.4	40.0% / 53.8%	33.3% / 17.9%	1.9 / 5.0	52 / 65	39.5% / 64.0%	36.5% / 55.4%	62.5% / 61.7%	4.8 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	28.8% / 60.0%	31.7 / 21.3
7	@OAK	30 – 31 L	3.0	48.6% / 44.2%	2.7% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.9 / 8.0	47.8% / 38.1%	26.1% / 19.0%	4.1 / 4.2	60 / 73	46.7% / 40.7%	48.3% / 42.5%	52.9% / 45.7%	7.1 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	38.3% / 28.8%	22.9 / 20.6
8	DEN	29 – 19 W	11.9	36.4% / 41.0%	3.0% / 7.7%	3.1% / 8.3%	6.0 / 4.8	25.9% / 61.3%	37.0% / 12.9%	3.0 / 5.7	60 / 70	37.0% / 53.6%	31.7% / 50.0%	52.0% / 39.0%	4.6 / 5.2	1.7% / 2.9%	45.0% / 44.3%	40.0 / 23.9
9	@DAL	17 – 28 L	-4.3	50.0% / 52.9%	5.6% / 2.9%	2.9% / 0.0%	7.1 / 7.2	42.1% / 64.5%	31.6% / 12.9%	3.6 / 4.2	55 / 65	51.2% / 58.5%	47.3% / 58.5%	40.6% / 42.4%	5.9 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	34.5% / 47.7%	22.9 / 26.8
11	@NYG	9 – 12 L	-2.1	42.9% / 38.9%	2.4% / 0.0%	7.3% / 2.8%	5.5 / 5.7	51.7% / 40.0%	10.3% / 22.9%	4.6 / 3.2	71 / 71	49.2% / 45.1%	46.5% / 39.4%	41.6% / 22.0%	5.1 / 4.5	0.0% / 0.0%	40.8% / 49.3%	21.5 / 30.2
12	BUF	10 – 16 L	-5.9	39.5% / 45.2%	5.3% / 6.5%	2.8% / 0.0%	4.8 / 5.3	25.0% / 38.5%	30.0% / 38.5%	2.8 / 2.7	58 / 70	42.9% / 46.9%	34.5% / 41.4%	39.2% / 34.1%	4.1 / 3.9	0.0% / 0.0%	34.5% / 55.7%	21.8 / 34.8
13	@NYJ	31 – 38 L	0.6	54.3% / 58.3%	5.7% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.3 / 9.2	54.5% / 43.1%	9.1% / 29.4%	10.2 / 3.1	46 / 87	59.5% / 46.8%	54.3% / 49.4%	74.5% / 40.8%	10.3 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	23.9% / 58.6%	27.2 / 24.0
14	OAK	26 – 15 W	13.4	50.0% / 45.5%	10.5% / 6.8%	2.9% / 4.9%	6.4 / 4.5	41.2% / 45.5%	11.8% / 27.3%	4.9 / 6.4	72 / 55	49.1% / 46.3%	45.8% / 45.5%	46.0% / 29.1%	5.7 / 4.9	0.0% / 1.8%	47.2% / 20.0%	32.2 / 24.8

Los Angeles Chargers @

Kansas City Chiefs

Sat, Dec 16

5:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis