Game Analysis

LA Chargers (-2.5) vs JACKSONVILLE

Player Prop Play: Marvin Jones (Jack) Under 26.5 Receiving Yards to 26

· The Jaguars gained only 4.7 yards per play and did not get a first down for the final 20 minutes of game time last Saturday night, but ultimately won the AFC south due to a late scoop-and-score touchdown off a strip sack of Joshua Dobbs that raised Jacksonville’s win probability from 24% to 79%.

· The Jaguars’ offense is not firing on all cylinders and the Chargers defense is really rounding into form – allowing just a 41% dropback success rate since the bye in week 8 (3rd).

· Los Angeles ostensibly has room to improve as well considering Pro Bowl safety Derwin James was out for three of those games since the bye and the Chargers now have edge defender Joey Bosa back in the mix.

· The Chargers defense going into this season was predicated on getting pressure off the edges with Bosa and Khalil Mack but Bosa underwent surgery to repair a groin tear after the week 3 loss to the Jaguars and just started to come back in a limited capacity against the Rams in week 17.

· Bosa is clearly rounding into shape with 4 pressures on just eight pass-rushing snaps last game and the attention he requires from opposing offensive lines creates more space for Mack, who had four sacks in the first two games this season with a healthy Bosa rushing from the other edge.

· Jacksonville starting left tackle Cam Robinson ranked 22nd in pass blocking efficiency before tearing his meniscus in week 15. Khalil Mack will line up across from Jaguars backup tackle Walker Little, who is surrendering a 10% pressure rate.

· Jacksonville’s success rate when targeting Evan Engram is 59% ranking 2nd among tight ends and I expect Trevor Lawrence to look for Engram in space against a Chargers defense surrendering 8.5 yards per target to opposing TEs (29th).

· Jaguars running back Travis Etienne only had 7 carries last week but I believe his workload will increase significantly on Saturday night versus a much different type of defense. The Titans conceded only a 35% rush success rate this year (2nd) while the Chargers are allowing a 47% rush success rate in the second half of the season (29th) since losing run-stopping interior defender Austin Johnson.

· Jacksonville’s defense made a mid-season switch in the secondary that is bearing fruit. The coaching staff moved CB Darious Williams outside and Tre Herndon inside to nickelback. Williams was allowing 1.30 yards per slot cover snap and is conceding only 0.29 yards per cover snap on the outside. Meanwhile, Herndon was surrendering 1.46 yards per cover snap on the outside and is now allowing slot receivers to average 1.18 yards per cover snap.

· The Jaguars defense overall is improved by the change, but Herndon will still likely struggle across from Keenan Allen, who is gaining 2.14 yards per route run in the slot (5th).

· Jacksonville cornerback Tyson Campbell ranks 5th in coverage grade by PFF and he should shut down Mike Williams. Williams’ 58% success rate ranks 10th among WRs but he is dealing with back spasms.

· The Jaguars have a 40% pressure rate since coming out of the bye in week 12, which ranks 2nd in the league during that span. Edge rusher Arden Key had a career-high 9 pressures last week and edge defender Josh Allen ranked 13th in pass rushing efficiency this season.

· Los Angeles RT Trey Pipkins and LT Jamaree Salyer are an average tackle tandem that combined to allow 5.3 pressures per game.

· I expect Justin Herbert to find quick passes to Allen, like I mentioned earlier, and running back Austin Ekeler, who averaged 1.63 yards per route run this season (4th). Jacksonville’s defense allowed slightly more yards per target to opposing running backs (5.8) than league average (5.6) in 2022.

· Our model favors the Chargers by 1.4 points, with a predicted total of 46.3 points.