Game Analysis

INDIANAPOLIS (+4.5) vs LA Chargers

· Indianapolis is making another change at quarterback going to Nick Foles for Monday night’s game. Foles is averaging only 5.6 yppp since leaving Philadelphia in 2019, which is the same as the 5.6 yppp that Matt Ryan is averaging this season.

· Foles will have to contend with the same poor offensive line that’s been blocking for Matt Ryan and Sam Ehlinger in their starts. The Colts rank 26th in pass blocking efficiency this year.

· Indianapolis All-Pro LG Quenton Nelson is on pace for the worst season of his career, surrendering more sacks in 2022 than the previous three years combined. Nelson will line up across from Chargers interior defender Morgan Fox, who ranks 8th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Los Angeles might be adding to the defensive line soon with the possible return of Pro Bowl edge defender Joey Bosa, who has been out since week 3. Bosa ranked 9th in pass rushing efficiency in 2021.

· The Chargers also could get safety Derwin James back after the Pro Bowler missed the last two games with a quad injury.

· Los Angeles cornerback Michael Davis allowed just one catch for four yards from three targets into his coverage last week and he will limit WR Michael Pittman in this game.

· Colts’ defensive coordinator Gus Bradley primarily runs Cover 3 which has given Joe Lombardi’s offense some trouble. Justin Herbert is averaging -0.23 EPA/play versus Cover 3 this season.

· Colts’ cornerback Stephon Gilmore ranks 6th in coverage grade by PFF and he will keep wide receiver Mike Williams in check.

· Chargers’ offensive coordinator Lombardi loves to call stick routes to Keenan Allen and flare routes to Austin Ekeler. This will be the perfect matchup for those two.

· Allen is averaging 0.30 EPA/target and Indianapolis will likely be without starting nickelback Kenny Moore for another game. Vikings receivers KJ Osborn and Justin Jefferson combined for 173 yards from the slot last week without Moore on the field.

· Ekeler is gaining 1.64 yards per route run (3rd) and the Colts are surrendering 6.4 yards per target to running backs (28th).

· Los Angeles guards Matt Feiler and Zion Johnson each surrendered a sack last week and the pair will not hold up against DT DeForest Buckner, who has 41 pressures (10th).

· Our model favors the Chargers by 3.3 points, with a predicted total of 45.1 points.