Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *HOUSTON (+3 -115) over LA Chargers

Lean – Under (42.5)

Strong Opinion – Justin Herbert (LAC) Over 4.5 Rushing Attempts (+105) to -110

• Nothing fancy about this Best Bet. Just taking an inflated number. Homefield advantage increases in the playoffs and the Chargers would have to be 5-6 points better than the Texans to get to this price.
• Houston WR Tank Dell went out on Christmas and the Texans rested starters in week 18 so we’ll use week 17 as our market proxy. Heading into week 17, the Chargers were rated +2.5 points above an average NFL team while the Texans were rated as average after losing Dell.
• Los Angeles went on to beat New England and Las Vegas while Houston lost to Baltimore but I do not think the ratings of these teams have shifted 3 points in two weeks this late into the season. This game should be priced as Chargers favored by less than a field goal.
• CJ Stroud averaged 0.12 EPA/play as a rookie compared to -0.01 EPA/play this year. Much of the gap can be explained by late down variance.
• Stroud had a 15.5% sack rate on 3rd downs this season (3rd-worst) compared to taking a sack on 6.1% of his 3rd down dropbacks last year (4th). Houston’s offensive line has nearly the exact same personnel and I think the truth for Stroud on late down lies somewhere in the middle of his outlier performances, which means he should be better on 3rd downs going forward than he’s been so far this season.
• Chargers’ offensive coordinator Greg Roman has built his scheme out of running the ball at a 46% clip (10th-highest) and using play action off of it at a 33% rate (2nd-highest). The average NFL defense surrenders 16% more yppp versus play action than a standard dropback, but the Texans are only allowing 9% more yppp against play action (5th).
• Houston head coach Demeco Ryans’ defense is conceding just 5.1 yppl (4th) and they rank 2nd according to our metrics. The Texans will harass Justin Herbert. Houston’s defense has an 8.1% sack rate (4th) and the importance of a pass rush is amplified in the postseason.
• Teams averaging 3 or more sacks are 48-26-1 ATS in the playoffs. The Texans averaged 2.9 sacks per game but Houston’s defense did meet the 3+ sacks threshold excluding the three games edge defender Will Anderson missed due to rest or injury. Anderson ranked 9th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Home underdogs or more than 1 point are 14-1 ATS if facing a team with a win percentage of <0.666, including Tampa Bay beating Philadelphia 32-9 just last season.
• This is also the 3rd consecutive road game for the Chargers, who apply to a 50-108-2 ATS 3rd consecutive road game situation that is 25-43-2 ATS in the postseason.
• The Chargers’ offense seems to be clicking lately, with 108 points scored over their last 3 games, but LA applies to a negative 86-165-7 ATS situation that applies to teams that have scored 95 or more points total in their last 3 games and that angle is 6-21 ATS in the playoffs.
• Our model favors the Chargers by just 0.2 points with a predicted total of 39.6.

Houston is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 -120 odds or better (Strong Opinion down to +2).