Game Analysis

Lean – Under (36.5) – DENVER (-3.5) vs LA Chargers

· The Broncos organization decided to bench Russell Wilson after possibly one of the worst trades and contracts of recent NFL history. Wilson has a 43.3% success rate since the start of 2022 ranking 29th out of 37 qualifying quarterbacks.

· Sean Payton will likely pull out all the stops to make the change to Jarrett Stidham look correct and Denver’s offense has a favorable matchup. The Broncos are targeting running backs on a league-high 31.8% of passes and the Chargers are surrendering 0.09 EPA/target to running backs (29th).

· Denver’s offense has the 9th-highest run play rate adjusted for the situation and the Los Angeles rush defense ranks 28th by our numbers.

· Broncos LT Garett Bolles ranks 11th in pass blocking efficiency, and he will contain edge defender Khalil Mack, who has 15.0 sacks (4th).

· WR Courtland Sutton has 11 receptions with at least 20 air yards (9th) and Denver’s offense has +22 EPA from pass interference this season (3rd-most). However, Sutton will likely be sidelined this week, which will negatively affect the downfield passing. Sutton is worth about a point to the Broncos.

· Easton Stick once again likely won’t have WR Keenan Allen, whose 59% success rate ranks 7th.

· Chargers RT Trey Pipkins has surrendered 48 pressures (4th-most) and he will struggle against edge defender Jonathon Cooper, who ranks 15th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Los Angeles has less than 100 yards on the ground in each of Stick’s starts but that could change on Sunday as Denver’s defense is surrendering a 42.0% rush success rate (26th).

· Our model favors the Broncos by 5.1 points, with a predicted total of 33.7 points, but the Chargers apply to a 196-87-6 ATS situation and I used LAC in my spread pool.