Game Analysis

LA Chargers (-6) vs CAROLINA

• It certainly seemed like Carolina’s offense made a couple points worth of additions in the offseason but it’s possible Bryce Young is who he is regardless of the supporting cast after averaging less than 4 yppp in week 1.
• The Panthers revamped the interior offensive line, and the new trio of Damien Lewis, Austin Corbett and Robert Hunt conceded a combined 1 pressure on 126 pass-blocking snaps between the three of them last week. Carolina’s offensive line ranked 3rd in pass blocking efficiency against the Saints so Young can’t blame the players protecting him.
• Carolina’s new wide receiver addition Diontae Johnson gained only 19 yards from 6 targets last week and he will be contained by Chargers CB Kristian Fulton, who allowed only 3 yards on 2 targets in week 1.
• Young will need to turn this passing game around because it’s on his shoulders as Los Angeles conceded a league-low 15.8% rush success rate in Jesse Minter’s debut as defensive coordinator.
• Justin Herbert averaged -0.16 EPA/play last week (25th) but the Chargers won in Jim Harbaugh’s first game because they ran it for 176 yards (5th).
• Unfortunately for the Panthers, they just lost one of the best run defenders in the NFL in Derrick Brown. Alvin Kamara was contacted within a yard of the line on just 27% of his carries against Carolina’s defense last week because Pro Bowl interior defender Brown was sidelined, likely due to a torn meniscus.
• Brown had 50 run stops in 2023, which was 13 more than any other interior defender, and is worth 0.6 points to Carolina’s defense by our metrics.
• The Panthers rush defense surrendered a 41.7% success rate last year (26th) with Brown so it could really fall off a cliff without him and Harbaugh is licking his chops.
• Our model favors the Charges by 6.1 with a predicted total of 37.1.