Game Analysis

Note: This play was released early in the week when the Arizona was a 2.5 point dog. The Cardinals are still a Best Bet at +1 or more

1-Star Best Bet – *ARIZONA (+2.5) over LA Chargers

1-Star Best Bet 6-point Teaser – Arizona (+8.5) with Kansas City (+7.5)

Lean – Over (44)

• The Cardinals got a much healthier practice report than expected on Thursday. It looked as if LG Evan Brown, WR Marvin Harrison, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, and LB Kyzir White could miss Monday night’s game after leaving last week early but the four of them were on the practice field this week.
• Meanwhile, the Chargers will likely be without both starting cornerbacks Asante Samuel and Kristian Fulton, who was conceding 0.52 yards per cover snap (5th). The Los Angeles defense might also be missing starting edge rusher Joey Bosa.
• The Chargers’ defense has an 86% zone-coverage rate (3rd-highest) and Arizona’s offensive coordinator Drew Petzing and the Cardinals’ weapons are much better versus zone. Kyler Murray’s yards per attempt is 63% higher versus zone coverage than man (2nd).
• I expect Arizona’s offense to be a harder test for this Los Angeles defense, which has gone against just one offense averaging more than 5 yppl. It was Kansas City’s game when they lost Rashee Rice and had to form a new game plan on the fly. The other quarterbacks to play the Chargers are Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, and Box Nix.
• The Los Angeles offense is one of only 5 in the NFL to have a success rate below 40% – along with Carolina, Tennessee, Miami, and Cleveland. This will be a little bit of a break for Arizona’s defense who has gone against 5 offenses ranked top 10 in EPA/play already this season.
• Our model favors the Cardinals by 1.5 points, with a predicted total of 45.3 points, and the matchups are favorable.
• Kansas City is a good teaser partner for Arizona, as not only does our model show some value with the Chiefs, but Andy Reid’s team is coming off a bye and he is 33-8 straight up in games off a bye while losing to the spread by more than 6 points just 6 out of 41 games. Patrick Mahomes, meanwhile, has lost a game as a starter by more than 7 points just 6 times in 119 games and all of those were as a favorite of more than 2 points (he’s 16-2 ATS from -2 to underdog with no losses by more than 7 points).

Arizona is a 1-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.

1-Star Best Bet Teaser on Arizona +7.5 or more with KC Chiefs +7.5 or more.