Las Vegas Raiders @

Los Angeles Rams

Sun, Oct 20
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 467
Odds: Los Angeles Rams -6.5, Total: 43.5

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – **LA RAMS (-6) over Las Vegas

  • I want to clear up some confusion I’ve seen online about us sending this bet on Tuesday morning. We had this game circled to bet in our normal Tuesday morning release time slot well before the trade of Davante Adams (i.e. the bet was not because we expected him not to suit up for Las Vegas nor does the line move represent his value to the point spread).
  • The bet also does not depend on Los Angeles WR Cooper Kupp coming back although obviously it would be an added boost. Before practice on Wednesday, McVay told reporters there’s a chance Kupp will play against the Raiders, but it’ll depend on how much he’s able to participate on Thursday and Friday.
  • The Rams coming off a bye are simply much better than this version of the Raiders. The Rams offense orchestrated by Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford has a 50% success rate (3rd) and I expect them to score way more than the current average of 18.8 points per game (24th) starting on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Las Vegas offense is averaging -0.18 EPA/play (29th), which includes the games that Davante Adams played in.
  • The Rams’ defense is underrated due to the schedule and the Raiders’ defense is overrated due to the schedule. Las Vegas has gone against the Chargers, Ravens, Panthers, Browns, Broncos and Steelers. Baltimore’s offense is the only one of the group with a success rate ranked above average.
  • The worst 6 offenses in success rate this season are the Browns, Dolphins, Titans, Panthers, Broncos, and Chargers. The Raiders defense has gone against four of them.
  • Meanwhile, the Rams defense has gone against the Lions, Cardinals, 49ers, Bears, and Packers. Green Bay’s offense is the only one in the group to have a success rate ranked below average and it’s because the Packers’ offense is built around explosive plays, which is why Green Bay is averaging 6.2 yppl (4th) despite their modest success rate.
  • The Los Angeles defense also had starting CB Darious Williams start his first game of the season before the bye. Williams conceded only 0.50 yards per cover snap compared to CB Tre’Davious White, who was allowing 1.14 yards per cover snap.
  • Aidan O’Connell is not the answer for the Las Vegas offense. He is averaging 0.4 fewer yppp than Gardner Minshew since the start of last season. O’Connell averaged -0.11 EPA/play in his first start last week (5th-worst).
  • The Raiders could be without one or both starters on the right side of the offensive line after RG Dylan Parham exited last week against the Steelers with a foot injury with RT Thayer Munford already sidelined. Backups Jordan Meredith and DJ Glaze will struggle as the Rams have a 37% pressure rate (10th).
  • Las Vegas WR Jakobi Meyers is averaging 0.43 EPA/target (16th) but he is banged up because of an ankle injury and even if he does suit up he will be limited by Los Angeles CB Cobie Durant, who is conceding 0.62 yards per cover snap (9th).
  • Our model favors the Rams by 12.5 points, with a predicted total of 42.9 points, and the situation is favorable for the Rams coming off a bye after struggling some before their bye week.
  • Teams with a straight up and spread win percentage of less than 0.300 that lost their game prior to their bye week are 72-25 ATS coming out of their bye. This game is a 2-Star Best Bet without that trend but it’s nice to have know that history is also on our side.

The Rams are a 2-Star Best Bet at-6.5 or less and 1-Star at -7.

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