Game Analysis

KANSAS CITY (-12) vs Las Vegas

• The Chiefs are averaging 0.16 EPA/play (4th), and the offense will only improve from here with WR Rashee Rice’s suspension ending. Rice averaged 3.16 yards per route run last season, and he’s presumably taking the snaps from JuJu Smith-Schuster, who is averaging 1.23 yards per route run this season.
• Patrick Mahomes has a favorable matchup in his first game with a full complement of weapons, as the Raiders’ pass defense is 1.5 points worse than the run defense (30th relatively).
• Las Vegas is surrendering 34% more yards per attempt against play-action compared to standard dropbacks (28th), and they will struggle against the Chiefs’ RPOs. Kansas City’s offense has a 30% play-action rate (7th-highest).
• Mahomes is 4th relatively against zone coverage compared to man coverage, and the Raiders have a league-high 89% zone coverage rate.
• On the other side of the ball, Geno Smith has been terrible against split safety coverages, ranking 25th relatively, and he will struggle versus Kansas City’s defense with a 53% split safety rate (5th-highest).
• The Las Vegas offense is averaging -0.14 EPA/play the last two weeks (30th), missing their two best offensive players, TE Brock Bowers and LT Kolton Miller, whose backup Stone Forsythe ranks 6th-worst in pass blocking efficiency since week 5.
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 15.3 points, with a predicted total of 44.6 points, but Kansas City tend to letdown as big favorites. The Chiefs are 7-17 ATS as favorite of more than 3 points against division opponents (0-4-1 ATS last season) and the last 7 times laying 10 points or more to a division rival resulted in one win by 11 points while the other 6 were all wins of 6 points or less (or losses). KC is also 0-10 ATS in their last 10 when favored by 6 points or more after a double-digit victory. I reluctantly used Kansas City in my spread pool based on the line value.