Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – KANSAS CITY (-12) over Las Vegas

Lean – Over (42.5)

• Patrick Mahomes averaged 0.21 EPA/play last week as the Chiefs to advantage of their two tight end sets. Kansas City’s offense had a 47% rate of 12-personnel and averaged 6.8 yppl with two tight ends on the field.
• Mahomes is targeting tight ends on a league-high 35% of his passes and he has a favorable matchup again as the Raiders, who are surrendering 0.53 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (29th).
• Las Vegas is conceding 4.3 yards per rush (10th) and I expect the Chiefs to be pass-heavy on Friday with the Raiders likely missing two starting cornerbacks. Las Vegas backup CBs Decamerion Richardson and Darnay Holmes are combining to surrender 0.27 more yards per cover snap than starters Jakorian Bennett and Nate Hobbs.
• The Broncos’ defense had a season-high 36 pressures last week against Las Vegas and I expect the Raiders offensive line to struggle once more against a Chiefs defense with a 36% pressure rate (8th-highest).
• Opposing quarterbacks are picking on Kansas City backup CB Nazeeh Johnson, who is allowing 0.41 more EPA/target than starter Jaylen Watson.
• However, I do not think Aidan O’Connell will be able to do so because Las Vegas only has one viable wide receiver in Jakobi Meyers, who has a 58% success rate (14th). Meyers will be limited by Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie, who is allowing just 0.71 yards per cover snap (7th).
• Our model makes Kansas City a 15.5-point favorite, with a predicted total of 44.8 points.

Kansas City is a Strong Opinion at -13 points or less.