Game Analysis

Lean – Over (43.5) – INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) vs Las Vegas

· Las Vegas is somehow not out of the playoff picture as they have a 12% chance to make the postseason after the win in Kansas City on Christmas. Aidan O’Connell failed to complete a pass after the first quarter against the Chiefs, but I expect the Raiders passing offense to bounce back.

· All-Pro WR Davante Adams had only 4 yards last week, but he has a favorable matchup versus an Indianapolis defense leading the NFL with a 50% Cover-3 zone rate. Adams is averaging 0.71 more yards per route run versus Cover-3 compared to other zone coverages this season.

· Colts’ starting CB JuJu Brents is back on the field, and he is conceding 0.4 yards per target fewer than backup Darrell Baker. Brents will battle with Las Vegas WR Jakobi Meyers, who has a 58% success rate (12th).

· Raiders LG Dylan Parham ranks 13th in pass blocking efficiency, and he will limit DT DeForest Buckner, whose 44 pressures rank 16th.

· Indianapolis is allowing a 42.2% rush success rate (28th) and they could struggle as Las Vegas head coach Antonio Pierce wants to run the ball as much as possible.

· The Colts’ offense averaged just 3.9 yppl last week as it was an uncharacteristic game for the Indianapolis offensive line surrendering 17 pressures.

· The Colts offensive line ranks 6th in pass-blocking efficiency and will finally get back starting RT Braden Smith this week. Backup tackle Blake Freeland was surrendering an 11.3% pressure rate compared to Smith allowing only a 3.8% pressure rate. Smith will limit Raiders’ edge defender Maxx Crosby, who has 13.5 sacks (5th).

· Shane Steichen’s offense is averaging a league-high 24% more yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush compared to the blitz and Garnder Minshew will have a favorable matchup as Las Vegas has a 78.8% standard pass rush rate (4th-highest).

· Indianapolis will likely get back starting WR Michael Pittman, but he will be contained even if he is on the field by CB Jack Jones, who is allowing 0.77 yards per cover snap (11th).

· Our model favors the Colts by 3.3 points, with a predicted total of 44.5 points.