Game Analysis

Lean – Las Vegas (+14) over HOUSTON

• Las Vegas is averaging a league-low -0.21 EPA/play since losing starting LT Kolton Miller, who ranked 3rd in pass blocking efficiency through the first month of the season before a high-ankle sprain and hairline fracture. Raiders’ backup left tackle Stone Forsythe ranks 60th in pass blocking efficiency out of 61 qualifying tackles since the start of October.
• Geno Smith will be back under center this week, and he should have back Las Vegas C Jordan Meredith, who has allowed 20 pressures in 410 pass blocking snaps compared to backup Alex Cappa surrendering 20 pressures in only 233 pass blocking snaps.
• CJ Stroud may struggle in this matchup as the Raiders lead the NFL with an 87% zone coverage rate and have a 75% standard pass rush rate (4th-highest). Houston’s yards per attempt against a standard pass rush is just 85% of its yards per attempt versus the blitz (31st), and the Texans rank 27th relatively against zone-coverage compared to man.
• Las Vegas is conceding a 50% success rate to opposing tight ends (8th), and they will contain Houston Dalton Schultz, who is averaging 0.32 EPA/target (8th).
• As bad as the Raiders offense has looked lately (shutout last week and 17 points or fewer in 5 straight games), that serves to supply line value. Teams that have scored 17 points or fewer in 4 or more consecutive games are 374-307-20 ATS and teams that were shutout in their previous game are 42-15-1 ATS as underdogs of more than 7 points since 1992.
• It appears as if the Raiders bad offense has supplied line value in this game.
• Our model favors the Texans by 11.7 with a predicted total of 39.6.