Game Analysis

DENVER (-9) vs Las Vegas

• At first glance, this price looks too long, but I’m not sure this number could get high enough for me to bet the Raiders after playing nearly every second of overtime and losing a heartbreaker to the Jaguars last week. From ClevTA, teams on Thursday night coming off OT are 6-25 ATS with a -6.8 cover margin since 2000.
• Denver also applies to another 44-14 ATS Thursday big favorite angle.
• Las Vegas TE Brock Bowers had 13 targets in his first game back, and he’ll be most of the offense after the Raiders traded away WR Jakobi Meyers. However, the Broncos are conceding only a 44% success rate to opposing tight ends (2nd).
• Las Vegas does not have a remaining wide receiver to threaten backup CB Kris Abrams-Draine, who is allowing 1.05 more yards per cover snap than Pat Surtain.
• Geno Smith will not have protection versus Denver’s defense with a 42% pressure rate (3rd). Raiders backup LT Stone Forsythe ranks 50th out of 57 qualifiers in pass blocking efficiency since he became the starter in week 5 after Kolton Miller went down.
• Bo Nix is averaging 0.29 EPA/play fewer in the first three quarters than in the fourth quarter this season.
• Our model favors the Broncos by 6.1 points, with a predicted total of 44.6 points, but I used Denver in my spread pool based on the situation.