Game Analysis

DENVER (-3/-2.5) vs Las Vegas

• Bo Nix had -7 passing yards in the first half last week and finished the game averaging 2.4 yards per attempt which was the lowest for a winning quarterback in the last 60 years.
• Nix has only a 37.9% success rate in the first month of his career (31st) but the positive takeaway is he’s been difficult for opposing defenses to get on the ground. Nix has only an 8% pressure-to-sack rate (2nd).
• Denver’s defense has been one of the surprises of the season, as that unit has allowed -0.17 EPA/play (3rd).
• The Broncos have a 46.4% man-coverage rate (2nd-highest) and Gardner Minshew’s dink-and-dunk could struggle against the scheme this week. The Raiders yards per attempt against man is only 66% of the yards per attempt versus zone coverage (29th).
• Las Vegas RT Thayer Munford is likely out again and backup DJ Glaze is surrendering an 8.5% pressure rate. Glaze will get trounced by Denver edge defender Jonathon Cooper, who ranks 5th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• The Raiders could also be without starting RG Dylan Parham while LG Cody Whitehair has surrendered 8 pressures (12th-most). The Las Vegas interior offensive line will lose out to Zach Allen, who ranks 2nd in pass-rushing efficiency.
• It looks like the Raiders will be without their two most valuable players again this week in edge rusher Maxx Crosby and wide receiver Davante Adams, who has a 59% success rate (14th).
• Las Vegas WR Tre Tucker has an 88% separation rate (3rd) and had 41 yards filling in for Adams last week, but he will likely struggle getting open against CB Pat Surtain, who is conceding only 0.60 yards per cover snap (13th).
• The Broncos are allowing -0.29 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (2nd) and they will limit rookie TE Brock Bowers, who is gaining 2.06 yards per route run (3rd).
• Our model makes Denver a 5.7-point favorite, with a predicted total of 36.6 points, but the Broncos apply to a 42-95-1 ATS letdown situation that applies to teams that have allowed single-digit points in their last two games. The line is my pool was 3 points and I used the Raiders. If your pool line is -2.5 then Denver is a slightly better choice.