Game Analysis

Lean – Las Vegas (+3.5) over DENVER

· Russell Wilson never averaged less than 6.5 yards per pass play until last year’s 5.9 yppp and the Broncos finished about 3 points worse than average in market. Now, the question is how much the improvement from Nathaniel Hackett to Sean Payton is worth to Denver’s offense.

· It hasn’t started out great for the Broncos receivers, as they will be without starters Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy due to injuries (Patrick is out for the season). Denver’s offense is going to be relying on 2nd-round rookie WR Marvin Mims right away, who is likely about a half point worse than Jeudy. Courtland Sutton is the only Broncos WR to have more than 50 career yards to his name.

· Denver’s offensive line will upgrade by replacing guard Quinn Meinerz with Ben Powers, who did not allow a sack all last season. Also, the Broncos added decent RT Mike McGlinchey, who ranked 27th in pass-blocking efficiency last year with the 49ers.

· Raiders edge defender Maxx Crosby will line up across from McGlinchey. Crosby had 81 pressures last season (3rd). Opposite Crosby, it is unknown whether edge defender Chandler Jones will be in uniform for week 1. Jones had a disappointing 2022 campaign but is still worth 0.4 points above the backups by our metrics due to the lack of depth on this Vegas defensive line.

· Denver’s new defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is going to bring a unique fire zone scheme. Joseph’s Cardinals were 4th in blitz rate in 2022 and 4th in zone rate. I think Joseph is a notable downgrade from Ejero Evero, who is now in Carolina after ranking atop defensive play-calling metrics last season.

· I believe the Raiders are underrated this season as discussed in our NFL Futures podcast. Las Vegas was only outscored by 23 points in 2022 and had a Pythag expected wins of 8.3 compared to their 6 actual wins last year. The theme of the 2022 Raiders was going 4-9 in one-score games which we know tends to regress year-to-year.

· Las Vegas finished last season a point and a half worse than average in market and I don’t think I’m going out on a massive limb to say they’re still in that range.

· Derek Carr is better than Jimmy Garoppolo in a vacuum. Garoppolo has a career 71 PFF grade, while Carr is nearly an 80. We aren’t comparing careers though. Carr was a 67 last year while I expect Garoppolo to be his normal 71 grade in 2023. Josh McDaniels is one of the league’s better play-callers, but it just didn’t work with Carr.

· The Raiders lost TE Darren Waller, but he battled injuries last year and wasn’t a major part of the equation with only 43 targets after averaging 118 targets the previous 3 seasons.

· Las Vegas signed WR Jakobi Meyers, who ranked 19th in EPA/target last year. The Raiders also brought in TE Austin Hooper and TE Michael Mayer to get into more 12 personnel, the strength of Josh McDaniels’ offense.

· The big loss on the Raiders’ defense was LB Denzel Perryman, who graded 2nd-best according to PFF on that Las Vegas unit in 2022. However, I expect new CB Marcus Peters to be about a half point better than replacement level and mostly account for the loss in production from Perryman.

· Altitude is difficult for opponents early in the year as conditioning adjusts to the speed of the regular season. The Broncos are 52-12-2 at home in games during weeks 1-2 since the merger, although divisional opponents, who are more accustomed to playing Denver, are 10-10-2 ATS in those early weeks since 1980.

· Our model makes Denver a 1.8-point favorite with a predicted total of 45.3 points.