Game Analysis

Note: The line on this game dropped after releasing it to subscribers. The Raiders are still a 1-Star Best Bet at +8 or more.

2-Star Best Bet – **Las Vegas (+9.5) over BALTIMORE

• Baltimore’s offense averaged 0.04 EPA/play (15th) in an all-out effort against Kansas City in week 1. Lamar Jackson scrambled on 20% of his dropbacks. which was his 3rd-highest scramble rate since 2021, but that is certainly not likely to continue in this game as a large favorite when there’s less urgency.
• In other words, the Ravens ground game can’t count on Jackson getting 122 rushing yards every week throughout the regular season. That could be an issue given that the passing game is limited this year.
• Baltimore’s reworked offensive line struggled to protect Jackson last week, particularly on the right side with guard Daniel Faalele and a rotation at tackle with Patrick Mekari and Roger Rosengarten. Mekari and Rosengarten combined to surrender a 12% pressure rate, and they will be a turnstile for Las Vegas edge defender Maxx Crosby, who had 14.5 sacks in 2023 (6th).
• Next to Crosby, the Raiders defense signed DT Christian Wilkins in the offseason. Wilkins had 58 pressures last year (9th) and will take this Las Vegas defense from rating 0.7 points worse than average in the market to end last season to possibly better than average in 2024.
• The Raiders defense is off to a solid start conceding just a 37.7% success rate to the Chargers last week and I expect them to hold this Ravens offense down.
• Gardner Minshew lost 32 yards from 4 sacks in week 1 but I do not think the current state of Baltimore’s pass rush is anywhere near as dangerous as the Chargers’ rush.
• Ravens edge defender Kyle Van Noy fractured his orbital bone and will likely be sidelined. Van Noy being out means 65.7% of Baltimore’s pressure from edge rushers last season won’t be on the field this Sunday with Jadeveon Clowney in Carolina.
• Our model favors the Ravens by 6.9 points, with a total of 43.6 points, and the Raiders apply to a very strong 138-59-3 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation that is 22-3 ATS in week 2 (that angle requires that the home team is also off a loss, so the Ravens are not in a bounce-back situation).

The Raiders are a 2-Star Best Bet at +8.5 or more and 1-Star down to +8.