Las Vegas Raiders @ Atlanta Falcons Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Las Vegas (-3) vs ATLANTA

Julio Jones only played 23 snaps after suffering a hamstring injury last Sunday and he most likely won’t be on the field this week. Jones is averaging 2.36 yards per route run (3rd) and our metrics have him valued at 1.3 points. Matt Ryan has only eclipsed 250 passing yards once and only has one touchdown in the four games without Jones injured or limited to fewer than half of the offense’s snaps.

Derrek Carr was excellent last Sunday night against the Chiefs, averaging 8.9 yards per pass play with three touchdowns and an interception. Of Carr’s eight incompletions, two were throwaways and four were drops. Carr has looked like a new QB over the past seven weeks since rookie WR Henry Ruggs returned to the lineup, as he’s throwing the ball deep a lot more – his 15% deep-ball rate ranks 5^th during that time. Isaiah Oliver ranks 25th out of 27 qualifying nickelbacks, surrendering 1.61 yards per cover snap in the slot and he will have a hard time staying with Hunter Renfrow on the inside. Darren Waller is second in yards (519) among TEs and Atlanta’s defense is surrendering 9.1 yards per target to opposing tight ends.

Our model favors the Raiders by 0.7 points, with a predicted total of 55.9 points. I’d certainly lean with the Falcons if this line gets to +3.5, which is where it seems to be heading.

Team Stats
Game Log

Raiders
Falcons

OAK

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 32.8 39.3
Succ Pass Plays 52.2% 49.4%
Sack Rate 4.0% 2.8%
Int Rate 0.9% 1.9%
Deep Pass Rate 18.3% 15.8%
Big Pass Yards 40.2% 32.7%
NYPP 7.1 6.9

Rush

Rush Plays 30.8 25.5
RB YPR 4.3 4.3
Stuff Rate 18.8% 21.5%
Succ Rush Plays 53.7% 55.9%
Big Rush Yards 41.5% 39.1%
Yards Per Rush 4.4 4.3

Game

All Snaps 63.6 64.8
Early Down Succ 54.6% 52.9%
Succ Rate 53.7% 52.1%
Big Yards Rate 41.6% 36.2%
Yards Per Play 5.9 5.9
Fumble Lost Rate 1.2% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.0 26.1
Run Ratio 48.3% 39.5%
Starting Field Pos 29.4 27.5
Game Control 0.2 -0.2

Points 28.6 27.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CAR	34 – 30 W	2.6	56.7% / 45.7%	0.0% / 2.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.0 / 7.4	64.5% / 56.7%	16.1% / 16.7%	4.3 / 4.3	61 / 65	62.0% / 50.0%	60.7% / 50.8%	37.1% / 29.9%	6.1 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	50.8% / 46.2%	32.9 / 26.4
2	NO	34 – 24 W	0.3	58.5% / 55.3%	7.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.6%	6.3 / 8.2	40.0% / 73.7%	40.0% / 10.5%	3.3 / 5.9	76 / 57	45.6% / 60.9%	50.0% / 61.4%	35.2% / 30.4%	4.9 / 7.4	1.3% / 0.0%	46.1% / 33.3%	26.9 / 26.6
3	@NE	20 – 36 L	-5.7	55.9% / 40.0%	5.9% / 6.7%	0.0% / 3.6%	7.3 / 5.2	50.0% / 57.9%	13.6% / 13.2%	5.7 / 6.6	56 / 68	57.4% / 56.4%	53.6% / 50.0%	44.8% / 52.7%	6.7 / 6.0	5.4% / 0.0%	39.3% / 55.9%	27.7 / 27.9
4	BUF	23 – 30 L	-7.0	54.3% / 57.1%	4.3% / 2.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.5 / 7.8	52.2% / 50.0%	26.1% / 37.5%	3.7 / 2.6	69 / 59	53.8% / 54.5%	53.6% / 54.2%	27.7% / 39.3%	5.6 / 5.7	2.9% / 0.0%	33.3% / 40.7%	23.8 / 38.3
5	@KC	40 – 32 W	0.7	50.0% / 39.1%	3.1% / 6.5%	3.2% / 2.3%	10.8 / 7.2	62.9% / 55.0%	11.4% / 25.0%	4.1 / 4.0	67 / 66	59.2% / 44.0%	56.7% / 43.9%	62.9% / 50.4%	7.3 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	52.2% / 30.3%	29.8 / 25.8
7	TB	20 – 45 L	-5.4	51.3% / 57.8%	7.7% / 0.0%	2.8% / 0.0%	6.9 / 8.2	45.8% / 44.0%	25.0% / 36.0%	3.2 / 3.4	63 / 70	52.1% / 52.7%	49.2% / 52.9%	46.7% / 43.6%	5.5 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	38.1% / 35.7%	24.7 / 33.0
8	@CLE	16 – 6 W	2.0	42.3% / 36.0%	7.7% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.9 / 4.9	68.9% / 54.5%	11.1% / 27.3%	4.6 / 4.6	71 / 47	60.4% / 45.7%	59.2% / 44.7%	22.7% / 34.5%	4.4 / 4.7	0.0% / 2.1%	63.4% / 46.8%	27.1 / 26.5
9	@LAC	31 – 26 W	4.3	37.5% / 54.5%	4.2% / 4.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.7 / 7.1	69.2% / 51.6%	19.2% / 12.9%	6.2 / 4.1	50 / 75	55.0% / 54.4%	54.0% / 53.3%	60.0% / 33.2%	6.4 / 5.9	2.0% / 1.3%	52.0% / 41.3%	34.6 / 29.3
10	DEN	37 – 12 W	8.4	48.0% / 40.8%	0.0% / 4.1%	0.0% / 8.5%	6.2 / 5.0	41.5% / 52.6%	9.8% / 21.1%	5.0 / 3.5	66 / 68	45.1% / 42.3%	43.9% / 44.1%	42.6% / 29.1%	5.4 / 4.6	0.0% / 1.5%	62.1% / 27.9%	40.8 / 18.8
11	KC	31 – 35 L	1.6	67.7% / 67.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.2% / 2.2%	8.9 / 7.7	42.3% / 63.0%	15.4% / 14.8%	3.4 / 4.0	57 / 73	55.3% / 68.3%	56.1% / 65.8%	36.3% / 19.3%	6.4 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	45.6% / 37.0%	25.8 / 22.4

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SEA	25 – 38 L	-8.5	50.0% / 57.9%	3.6% / 7.9%	1.9% / 0.0%	7.8 / 7.9	47.6% / 55.0%	23.8% / 15.0%	3.4 / 4.2	77 / 58	50.8% / 61.7%	49.4% / 56.9%	35.6% / 38.1%	6.6 / 6.6	1.3% / 0.0%	27.3% / 34.5%	24.7 / 31.3
2	@DAL	39 – 40 L	12.6	44.7% / 58.0%	2.6% / 2.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.0 / 8.9	47.1% / 64.5%	17.6% / 12.9%	3.3 / 4.0	72 / 81	43.4% / 63.1%	45.8% / 60.5%	38.2% / 46.1%	5.3 / 7.0	0.0% / 3.7%	47.2% / 38.3%	40.8 / 24.4
3	CHI	26 – 30 L	8.6	40.0% / 45.3%	5.0% / 3.8%	2.6% / 3.9%	5.7 / 5.8	44.0% / 56.0%	12.0% / 24.0%	5.8 / 5.2	65 / 78	45.1% / 55.9%	41.5% / 48.7%	53.1% / 51.9%	5.7 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	38.5% / 32.1%	29.9 / 32.8
4	@GB	16 – 30 L	-10.5	53.5% / 61.8%	9.3% / 2.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.8 / 9.3	48.0% / 34.6%	24.0% / 34.6%	3.1 / 3.4	68 / 60	57.7% / 50.0%	51.5% / 50.0%	10.4% / 46.2%	4.8 / 6.7	0.0% / 0.0%	36.8% / 43.3%	23.4 / 32.6
5	CAR	16 – 23 L	-3.4	46.2% / 59.5%	5.1% / 0.0%	2.7% / 0.0%	5.2 / 8.5	68.0% / 63.0%	12.0% / 14.8%	6.6 / 4.6	64 / 64	58.3% / 64.7%	54.7% / 60.9%	51.2% / 40.3%	5.8 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	39.1% / 42.2%	21.8 / 23.0
6	@MIN	40 – 23 W	15.7	57.1% / 48.6%	4.8% / 2.7%	0.0% / 8.3%	8.6 / 9.0	51.4% / 30.8%	32.4% / 38.5%	2.7 / 2.5	79 / 50	53.4% / 47.4%	54.4% / 44.0%	38.1% / 46.8%	5.8 / 7.3	1.3% / 0.0%	46.8% / 26.0%	38.3 / 23.9
7	DET	22 – 23 L	-0.0	56.8% / 44.7%	4.5% / 5.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.3 / 8.5	38.5% / 33.3%	30.8% / 33.3%	2.5 / 3.0	70 / 59	50.0% / 47.7%	50.0% / 40.7%	20.1% / 44.6%	5.5 / 6.5	1.4% / 0.0%	37.1% / 35.6%	16.7 / 28.7
8	@CAR	25 – 17 W	1.1	59.4% / 36.7%	6.3% / 10.0%	3.3% / 3.7%	8.4 / 5.2	41.7% / 59.1%	13.9% / 13.6%	3.6 / 6.7	68 / 52	54.4% / 53.8%	50.0% / 46.2%	43.6% / 66.4%	5.9 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	52.9% / 42.3%	23.6 / 28.8
9	DEN	34 – 27 W	12.5	54.1% / 38.8%	5.4% / 2.0%	2.9% / 2.1%	7.3 / 6.2	34.4% / 27.3%	25.0% / 22.7%	2.9 / 4.7	69 / 71	46.3% / 34.0%	44.9% / 35.2%	50.7% / 47.9%	5.3 / 5.7	0.0% / 0.0%	46.4% / 31.0%	36.1 / 23.7
11	@NO	9 – 24 L	-3.8	28.9% / 53.8%	17.8% / 11.5%	5.4% / 0.0%	4.4 / 8.1	42.9% / 58.3%	7.1% / 16.7%	3.7 / 4.7	59 / 62	35.7% / 60.0%	32.2% / 56.5%	37.5% / 44.4%	4.2 / 6.1	0.0% / 1.6%	23.7% / 58.1%	23.5 / 30.4

Las Vegas Raiders @

Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Nov 29

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis