Game Analysis

Lean – Under (37.5) – TENNESSEE (+3) over Kansas City

• Patrick Mahomes is out for the season, and Gardner Minshew is a 7-point downgrade for Kansas City’s offense according to our metrics.
• Mahomes had a career-high 422 rushing yards to give a sense of how much this offense was relying on his creation. Mahomes was averaging +2.1 EPA per game on the ground, and the other ~5 points is the difference between Mahomes and Minshew as a passer.
• Minshew will be behind an offensive line coming off a game where they allowed 21 pressures, the most by any Chiefs opponent since 2023.
• Kansas City’s offensive line is down starters RT Jawaan Taylor, RG Trey Smith, and LT Josh Simmons, as well as backups Jaylon Moore and Wanya Morris. The Chiefs are starting two undrafted free agents at tackle on Sunday: Esa Pole and Chukwuebuka Godrick.
• Chiefs’ WR Rashee Rice leads Kansas City’s offense, averaging 2.15 yards per route run, but he also could be sidelined.
• Kansas City’s defense will likely again be without All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie, who is conceding 6.2 yards per target compared to backup Nohl Williams, allowing 7.3 yards per target.
• The Titans did not allow a single sack last week against San Francisco’s backups for the first time this season, but I do not expect it to continue against a Chiefs defense with a 41% pressure rate (5th). Tennessee’s offensive line ranks 28th in pass blocking efficiency.
• Kansas City interior defender Chris Jones has 51 pressures (3rd), and he will wreak havoc up the middle versus backup RG Blake Hance. Titans starting RG Kevin Zeitler ranks 5th in pass blocking efficiency, but is likely out and is worth 0.7 points according to our numbers.
• Cam Ward is targeting tight ends on 25.6% of passes (7th-most), and he has a favorable matchup as the Chiefs are surrendering a 58% success rate to opposing tight ends (26th).
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 1.6 with a predicted total of 35.1 points.