Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Kansas City (-7) vs OAKLAND

The Chiefs put up the second-best offensive performance of the week by our numbers against a stingy Jaguars defense and it’s about to get much easier versus Oakland. The Raiders surrendered 10.3 yards per target to opposing tight ends in 2018, more than 2.5 yards per target worse than league average, and they just lost first round rookie starting safety Johnathan Abram to injury. Travis Kelce gained 3.26 yards per route run last week and is in line for a monster game on Sunday. Kansas City lost Tyreek Hill, which would normally be a major blow, but the Chiefs planned on going into this year without him given his off the field issues in the offseason and drafted speedster Mecole Hardman in the second round. Also, Sammy Watkins will look to step up in Hill’s absence coming off 198 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 1. Our metrics suggest a full 1-point adjustment is needed to be made for the loss of Hill but it may not be that drastic depending on the performance of the other receivers. Kansas City’s offensive line didn’t allow a sack against Jacksonville’s defensive front and I expect Patrick Mahomes to have plenty of time in the pocket to pick apart Oakland’s secondary.

Kansas City’s defense is weak at outside cornerback, but set up perfectly to stop quick passing game with Tyrann Mathieu and Kendall Fuller on the inside. Tight end Darren Waller gained 2.8 yards per route run in his Raiders debut but he will be blanketed on Sunday. Frank Clark, who ranked 4th in pass rush efficiency among edge defenders last season, should have his way with left tackle Kolton Miller. Gruden will likely turn to his ground game after rookie RB Josh Jacobs forced 9 missed tackles and recorded 113 yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns in his debut. The Chiefs rush defense is among the worst in the league but as Kansas City’s offense racks up the points the Raiders likely won’t be able to stick to the run into the second half.

This number is the same as the advanced spread of Chiefs by 7. Our model agrees no change is necessary, favoring Kansas City by 6.9 points with a predicted total of 52.5. But, I’ll lean with Kansas City at -7 or less based on a 26-78-1 ATS letdown situation that the Raiders apply to this week.

Team Stats
Game Log

Chiefs
Raiders

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.0 37.5
Succ Pass Plays 57.7% 49.6%
Sack Rate 2.2% 5.1%
Int Rate 0.0% 4.1%
Deep Pass Rate 27.0% 15.8%
Big Pass Yards 65.5% 41.6%
NYPP 10.3 7.3

Rush

Rush Plays 24.0 17.5
RB YPR 2.9 5.8
Stuff Rate 31.6% 19.4%
Succ Rush Plays 47.0% 48.2%
Big Rush Yards 27.9% 50.5%
Yards Per Rush 2.9 5.9

Game

All Snaps 64.0 55.0
Early Down Succ 55.8% 49.4%
Succ Rate 54.2% 49.2%
Big Yards Rate 62.3% 46.9%
Yards Per Play 7.5 6.8
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.8 31.2
Run Ratio 37.8% 31.8%
Starting Field Pos 32.3 24.5
Game Control 10.0 -10.0

Points 34.0 18.0

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@JAC	40 – 26 W	11.7	58.8% / 52.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	0.0% / 3.0%	11.1 / 10.2	57.7% / 43.8%	26.9% / 12.5%	4.3 / 5.1	60 / 50	62.5% / 50.0%	58.3% / 50.0%	62.3% / 55.4%	8.2 / 8.6	0.0% / 2.0%	43.3% / 32.0%	38.4 / 23.8
2	@OAK	28 – 10 W	8.3	56.5% / 46.3%	4.3% / 7.3%	0.0% / 5.3%	9.4 / 4.3	36.4% / 52.6%	36.4% / 26.3%	1.4 / 6.8	68 / 60	49.1% / 48.9%	50.0% / 48.3%	62.3% / 38.4%	6.8 / 5.1	1.5% / 0.0%	32.4% / 31.7%	26.2 / 25.3

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	DEN	24 – 16 W	9.5	65.4% / 50.0%	0.0% / 8.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.0 / 7.3	46.4% / 52.2%	14.3% / 26.1%	3.5 / 4.1	54 / 57	51.3% / 52.3%	55.6% / 50.9%	40.3% / 58.1%	6.6 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	51.9% / 40.4%	29.0 / 21.8
2	KC	10 – 28 L	-8.3	46.3% / 56.5%	7.3% / 4.3%	5.3% / 0.0%	4.3 / 9.4	52.6% / 36.4%	26.3% / 36.4%	6.8 / 1.4	60 / 68	48.9% / 49.1%	48.3% / 50.0%	38.4% / 62.3%	5.1 / 6.8	0.0% / 1.5%	31.7% / 32.4%	25.3 / 26.2

Kansas City Chiefs @

Oakland Raiders

Sun, Sep 15

1:05 PM Pacific

Game Analysis