Game Analysis
Lean – NEW YORK JETS (+3/+3.5) over Kansas City
The Jets are one of the most surprising teams of the season after matching their preseason market win total in the first 5 games. However, it’s important to note New York certainly benefitted from a soft schedule thus far only facing two teams above average in net yards per play. In fact, the Jets’ +0.1 net yards per play (5.4 yppl offense and 5.3 yppl allowed) turns into a -0.3 net yppl when compensating for opponents faced.
However, Kansas City is only at +0.1 net compensated yppl and our advanced metrics favor the Chiefs by only 1 ½ points in this game.
Kansas City does have one clear match-up advantage, however, as the Jets defense is surrendering 8.0 yards per target to opposing tight ends, 7th-worst in the league, and Chiefs’ star TE Travis Kelce can certainly exploit that weakness.
Darrelle Revis will make his debut for Kansas City. Revis started shakily in the first half of last season allowing 1.56 yards per cover snap before turning it on in the second half allowing just 0.88 yards per cover snap so it’s difficult to know what to expect from him in his debut with the Chiefs.
I think there is some value in favor of the Jets, who apply to a 30-3-2 ATS late-season home underdog situation. Kansas City has lost as big favorites in consecutive games but teams with a winning record coming off consecutive upset losses are just 17-47-2 ATS in road games if not an underdog of at least 6 points and favorites in that situation are even worse. I’ll lean with the Jets at +3 or more.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.1
37.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.7%
44.2%
-
Sack Rate
7.2%
4.9%
-
Int Rate
1.5%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.4%
25.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.7%
44.8%
-
NYPP
6.8
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.1
29.5
-
RB YPR
4.2
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
25.2%
20.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.3%
50.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
52.2%
47.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
61.2
66.5
-
Early Down Succ
48.2%
49.7%
-
Succ Rate
44.8%
46.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
47.1%
45.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.3%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.4
26.9
-
Run Ratio
40.6%
44.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.7
26.2
-
Game Control
1.0
-1.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.6
36.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.8%
44.2%
-
Sack Rate
9.1%
5.2%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.5%
21.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
45.8%
40.5%
-
NYPP
6.2
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.3
30.0
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
31.9%
29.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
33.6%
40.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.7%
37.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
60.9
66.4
-
Early Down Succ
42.7%
44.2%
-
Succ Rate
40.3%
42.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.8%
40.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.4%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.1
27.6
-
Run Ratio
43.1%
45.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.2
28.6
-
Game Control
0.7
-0.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NE |
42 – 27 W |
-1.8 |
60.5% /
33.3% |
7.9% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.3 /
6.3 |
42.4% /
50.0% |
9.1% /
25.0% |
5.7 /
3.5 |
71 /
75 |
63.5% /
46.4% |
52.1% /
41.3% |
53.7% /
54.8% |
7.6 /
5.0 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
46.5% /
48.0% |
25.5 /
27.8 |
| 2 |
PHI |
27 – 20 W |
2.0 |
50.0% /
44.2% |
12.5% /
11.5% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
7.3 /
5.8 |
47.4% /
58.8% |
26.3% /
17.6% |
5.9 /
6.3 |
51 /
69 |
51.3% /
46.3% |
49.0% /
47.8% |
45.3% /
42.4% |
6.7 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
37.3% /
24.6% |
35.6 /
26.1 |
| 3 |
@LAC |
24 – 10 W |
8.0 |
34.6% /
35.7% |
19.2% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
4.7 /
5.4 |
56.0% /
34.6% |
20.0% /
34.6% |
7.6 /
4.0 |
51 /
68 |
50.0% /
34.5% |
45.1% /
35.3% |
55.0% /
39.1% |
6.1 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.0% /
38.2% |
30.5 /
22.8 |
| 4 |
WAS |
29 – 20 W |
-4.3 |
47.5% /
45.8% |
10.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
9.2 |
58.1% /
51.9% |
19.4% /
14.8% |
5.4 /
4.1 |
71 /
51 |
51.7% /
54.1% |
52.1% /
49.0% |
43.4% /
57.2% |
6.0 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
2.0% |
43.7% /
52.9% |
21.2 /
26.8 |
| 5 |
@HOU |
42 – 34 W |
9.9 |
57.9% /
46.9% |
2.6% /
9.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
7.8 |
40.0% /
60.9% |
34.3% /
13.0% |
3.6 /
6.3 |
73 /
55 |
47.4% /
56.8% |
49.3% /
52.7% |
31.6% /
64.8% |
6.2 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
47.9% /
41.8% |
31.2 /
27.6 |
| 6 |
PIT |
13 – 19 L |
-5.8 |
35.1% /
57.7% |
8.1% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
4.0% |
6.0 /
9.4 |
40.0% /
53.8% |
33.3% /
17.9% |
1.9 /
5.0 |
52 /
65 |
39.5% /
64.0% |
36.5% /
55.4% |
62.5% /
61.7% |
4.8 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
60.0% |
31.7 /
21.3 |
| 7 |
@OAK |
30 – 31 L |
3.0 |
48.6% /
44.2% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
8.0 |
47.8% /
38.1% |
26.1% /
19.0% |
4.1 /
4.2 |
60 /
73 |
46.7% /
40.7% |
48.3% /
42.5% |
52.9% /
45.7% |
7.1 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.3% /
28.8% |
22.9 /
20.6 |
| 8 |
DEN |
29 – 19 W |
11.9 |
36.4% /
41.0% |
3.0% /
7.7% |
3.1% /
8.3% |
6.0 /
4.8 |
25.9% /
61.3% |
37.0% /
12.9% |
3.0 /
5.7 |
60 /
70 |
37.0% /
53.6% |
31.7% /
50.0% |
52.0% /
39.0% |
4.6 /
5.2 |
1.7% /
2.9% |
45.0% /
44.3% |
40.0 /
23.9 |
| 9 |
@DAL |
17 – 28 L |
-4.3 |
50.0% /
52.9% |
5.6% /
2.9% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
7.2 |
42.1% /
64.5% |
31.6% /
12.9% |
3.6 /
4.2 |
55 /
65 |
51.2% /
58.5% |
47.3% /
58.5% |
40.6% /
42.4% |
5.9 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.5% /
47.7% |
22.9 /
26.8 |
| 11 |
@NYG |
9 – 12 L |
-2.1 |
42.9% /
38.9% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
7.3% /
2.8% |
5.5 /
5.7 |
51.7% /
40.0% |
10.3% /
22.9% |
4.6 /
3.2 |
71 /
71 |
49.2% /
45.1% |
46.5% /
39.4% |
41.6% /
22.0% |
5.1 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.8% /
49.3% |
21.5 /
30.2 |
| 12 |
BUF |
10 – 16 L |
-5.9 |
39.5% /
45.2% |
5.3% /
6.5% |
2.8% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
5.3 |
25.0% /
38.5% |
30.0% /
38.5% |
2.8 /
2.7 |
58 /
70 |
42.9% /
46.9% |
34.5% /
41.4% |
39.2% /
34.1% |
4.1 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.5% /
55.7% |
21.8 /
34.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@BUF |
12 – 21 L |
-3.8 |
37.5% /
43.3% |
2.5% /
6.7% |
5.1% /
3.6% |
4.4 /
7.3 |
25.0% /
33.3% |
31.3% /
24.4% |
2.4 /
4.3 |
56 /
75 |
35.9% /
37.7% |
33.9% /
37.3% |
26.5% /
68.1% |
3.8 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.6% /
60.0% |
29.7 /
25.3 |
| 2 |
@OAK |
20 – 45 L |
-11.6 |
44.8% /
64.3% |
13.8% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
8.2 |
61.5% /
40.7% |
19.2% /
33.3% |
4.9 /
6.7 |
55 /
55 |
53.7% /
48.8% |
52.7% /
52.7% |
43.0% /
56.1% |
4.9 /
7.5 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
47.3% /
49.1% |
27.1 /
35.7 |
| 3 |
MIA |
20 – 6 W |
9.8 |
52.0% /
41.7% |
8.0% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
4.4% |
9.3 /
4.1 |
37.1% /
46.7% |
34.3% /
46.7% |
3.0 /
2.0 |
60 /
63 |
48.9% /
54.2% |
43.3% /
42.9% |
40.1% /
11.6% |
5.6 /
3.6 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
58.3% /
23.8% |
31.4 /
23.7 |
| 4 |
JAC |
23 – 20 W |
2.3 |
44.4% /
30.6% |
13.9% /
2.8% |
3.2% /
2.9% |
6.0 /
3.8 |
31.3% /
57.5% |
43.8% /
20.0% |
8.0 /
4.4 |
68 /
76 |
37.3% /
50.8% |
38.2% /
44.7% |
68.6% /
27.6% |
6.9 /
4.1 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
52.6% |
29.5 /
27.0 |
| 5 |
@CLE |
17 – 14 W |
1.7 |
51.5% /
45.9% |
9.1% /
2.7% |
3.3% /
5.6% |
5.4 /
7.5 |
19.0% /
45.5% |
33.3% /
18.2% |
1.8 /
4.2 |
54 /
70 |
45.9% /
46.3% |
38.9% /
45.7% |
32.1% /
40.1% |
4.0 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
38.9% /
47.1% |
29.0 /
30.1 |
| 6 |
NE |
17 – 24 L |
0.1 |
54.0% /
39.5% |
8.0% /
0.0% |
4.3% /
2.6% |
6.7 /
6.8 |
40.0% /
61.5% |
24.0% /
7.7% |
3.0 /
4.6 |
75 /
64 |
50.9% /
49.0% |
49.3% /
48.4% |
46.0% /
29.5% |
5.5 /
5.9 |
1.3% /
1.6% |
33.3% /
40.6% |
24.0 /
28.7 |
| 7 |
@MIA |
28 – 31 L |
5.2 |
36.7% /
52.5% |
10.0% /
7.5% |
3.7% /
5.4% |
6.0 /
7.6 |
34.8% /
24.0% |
30.4% /
44.0% |
4.0 /
2.1 |
53 /
65 |
37.5% /
42.3% |
35.8% /
41.5% |
61.9% /
53.8% |
5.2 /
5.5 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
43.4% /
38.5% |
29.3 /
31.2 |
| 8 |
ATL |
20 – 25 L |
1.1 |
51.4% /
50.0% |
8.6% /
3.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
8.2 |
22.7% /
37.5% |
36.4% /
28.1% |
2.0 /
4.4 |
57 /
62 |
41.5% /
45.8% |
40.4% /
43.5% |
40.1% /
53.1% |
4.9 /
6.2 |
1.8% /
3.2% |
38.6% /
51.6% |
36.9 /
26.1 |
| 9 |
BUF |
34 – 21 W |
9.6 |
42.9% /
48.9% |
4.8% /
14.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
5.2 |
38.6% /
27.3% |
29.5% /
40.9% |
4.5 /
2.9 |
65 /
69 |
43.5% /
42.3% |
40.0% /
42.0% |
55.4% /
31.6% |
5.1 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
4.3% |
67.7% /
31.9% |
38.0 /
25.2 |
| 10 |
@TB |
10 – 15 L |
-3.4 |
28.9% /
40.0% |
13.3% /
2.9% |
2.6% /
2.9% |
4.9 /
5.2 |
21.1% /
28.1% |
42.1% /
28.1% |
2.9 /
2.8 |
64 /
67 |
27.7% /
32.7% |
26.6% /
34.3% |
46.2% /
23.2% |
4.3 /
4.1 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
29.7% /
47.8% |
19.0 /
36.0 |
| 12 |
CAR |
27 – 35 L |
-3.0 |
48.6% /
29.0% |
8.1% /
9.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.6 /
5.0 |
38.5% /
39.4% |
26.9% /
36.4% |
4.2 /
4.4 |
63 /
64 |
46.9% /
36.7% |
44.4% /
34.4% |
54.5% /
50.5% |
6.2 /
4.7 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
41.3% /
51.6% |
27.7 /
25.3 |
Kansas City Chiefs
@ 
New York Jets