Game Analysis
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Kansas City (+8 ½) at NEW ENGLAND
Before losing to the Steelers in the divisional playoffs last year, the Chiefs were projected to be a 7-point underdog in New England for the potential AFC Championship game. Not much has changed between these two teams but the line for this game opened at NE -8 and has since moved to 9 providing some value on Kansas City.
The math model leans with the Chiefs but home teams having success in these Thursday night season-opening games (10-1-3 ATS). Plus, week 1 night games historically have about a point higher home field advantage than day games. I’ll pass this one but I’d lean with KC at +10 or more.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Chiefs
- Patriots
KC
Offense
Defense
Pass
- Pass Plays 36.0 38.6
- Succ Pass Plays 47.4% 45.2%
- Sack Rate 4.8% 4.5%
- Int Rate 1.6% 2.9%
- Deep Pass Rate 14.7% 18.6%
- Big Pass Yards 36.3% 35.0%
- NYPP 6.7 6.5
Rush
- Rush Plays 26.2 28.5
- RB YPR 4.2 4.2
- Stuff Rate 20.8% 20.0%
- Succ Rush Plays 41.7% 51.5%
- Big Rush Yards 43.1% 36.1%
- Yards Per Rush 4.1 4.4
Game
- All Snaps 62.2 67.1
- Early Down Succ 48.2% 49.5%
- Succ Rate 44.5% 47.5%
- Big Yards Rate 39.4% 36.5%
- Yards Per Play 5.5 5.5
- Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 1.3%
- Time Per Play (sec) 29.3 27.6
- Run Ratio 42.4% 42.1%
- Starting Field Pos 29.6 26.5
- Game Control 1.1 -1.1
- Points 23.8 19.4
NE
Offense
Defense
Pass
- Pass Plays 38.2 39.2
- Succ Pass Plays 49.7% 45.2%
- Sack Rate 4.6% 6.1%
- Int Rate 0.7% 2.5%
- Deep Pass Rate 19.0% 22.8%
- Big Pass Yards 43.4% 36.2%
- NYPP 7.5 6.1
Rush
- Rush Plays 30.9 22.7
- RB YPR 3.6 3.7
- Stuff Rate 21.4% 23.6%
- Succ Rush Plays 45.2% 44.6%
- Big Rush Yards 35.6% 28.1%
- Yards Per Rush 3.7 3.9
Game
- All Snaps 69.1 61.9
- Early Down Succ 49.6% 47.8%
- Succ Rate 47.7% 45.1%
- Big Yards Rate 42.0% 35.7%
- Yards Per Play 5.8 5.3
- Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 1.1%
- Time Per Play (sec) 27.5 27.8
- Run Ratio 45.2% 36.8%
- Starting Field Pos 30.2 25.4
- Game Control 7.4 -7.4
- Points 28.7 16.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log | PASS | RUSH | GAMES | |||||||||||||||
Wk | Opp | Score | Game Control | Succ Pass Plays | Sack Rate | Int Rate | NYPP | Succ Rush Plays | Stuff Rate | Yds per Rush | All Snaps | Early Down Succ | Succ Rate | Big Yards Rate | Yds per Play | Fum Lost Rate | Run Ratio | Starting Field Pos |
1 | SD | 33 – 27 W | -11.5 | 52.9% / 56.8% |
5.9% / 2.7% |
2.1% / 0.0% |
6.5 / 6.3 |
57.9% / 57.6% |
21.1% / 15.2% |
4.4 / 4.7 |
70 / 70 |
57.4% / 62.3% |
54.3% / 57.1% |
44.3% / 38.8% |
5.9 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
27.1% / 47.1% |
28.4 / 30.4 |
2 | @HOU | 12 – 19 L | -6.8 | 34.1% / 40.0% |
9.8% / 5.7% |
0.0% / 6.1% |
4.2 / 7.3 |
36.8% / 32.4% |
31.6% / 18.9% |
6.3 / 2.7 |
60 / 72 |
39.1% / 41.2% |
35.0% / 36.1% |
37.1% / 38.2% |
4.9 / 4.9 |
5.0% / 0.0% |
31.7% / 51.4% |
29.5 / 35.9 |
3 | NYJ | 24 – 3 W | 10.3 | 48.6% / 34.1% |
5.7% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 13.6% |
6.3 / 4.3 |
30.0% / 50.0% |
33.3% / 13.6% |
2.5 / 5.3 |
65 / 66 |
43.2% / 36.0% |
40.0% / 39.4% |
40.2% / 39.0% |
4.6 / 4.6 |
1.5% / 3.0% |
46.2% / 33.3% |
27.3 / 30.1 |
4 | @PIT | 14 – 43 L | -25.5 | 44.4% / 55.2% |
7.4% / 6.9% |
2.0% / 0.0% |
5.0 / 9.9 |
22.2% / 40.7% |
22.2% / 22.2% |
4.8 / 5.6 |
72 / 56 |
34.6% / 50.0% |
38.9% / 48.2% |
18.5% / 59.4% |
5.0 / 7.8 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
25.0% / 48.2% |
24.5 / 31.4 |
6 | @OAK | 26 – 10 W | 5.9 | 62.5% / 51.4% |
4.2% / 5.7% |
0.0% / 3.0% |
9.3 / 6.3 |
52.4% / 52.9% |
11.9% / 29.4% |
4.4 / 3.8 |
66 / 52 |
61.2% / 57.5% |
56.1% / 51.9% |
45.8% / 15.4% |
6.2 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 1.9% |
63.6% / 32.7% |
37.4 / 25.5 |
7 | NO | 27 – 21 W | 7.9 | 54.2% / 63.3% |
0.0% / 2.0% |
0.0% / 2.1% |
8.9 / 7.3 |
30.0% / 72.7% |
16.7% / 9.1% |
3.8 / 4.7 |
54 / 71 |
46.3% / 66.7% |
40.7% / 66.2% |
44.8% / 25.9% |
6.1 / 6.5 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
55.6% / 31.0% |
22.7 / 22.6 |
8 | @IND | 30 – 14 W | 8.3 | 45.5% / 36.6% |
6.8% / 14.6% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
7.6 / 4.2 |
35.7% / 50.0% |
21.4% / 18.2% |
3.2 / 4.8 |
72 / 63 |
42.6% / 45.7% |
41.7% / 41.3% |
48.7% / 32.7% |
5.9 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
38.9% / 34.9% |
34.8 / 22.8 |
9 | JAC | 19 – 14 W | 6.2 | 25.7% / 46.5% |
5.7% / 4.7% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
4.8 / 5.7 |
32.0% / 50.0% |
16.0% / 34.4% |
2.6 / 6.4 |
60 / 75 |
37.5% / 51.7% |
28.3% / 48.0% |
42.7% / 47.7% |
3.9 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 4.0% |
41.7% / 42.7% |
39.6 / 23.9 |
10 | @CAR | 20 – 17 W | -7.9 | 36.6% / 47.5% |
7.3% / 5.0% |
2.6% / 2.6% |
4.0 / 6.1 |
45.0% / 36.7% |
10.0% / 26.7% |
4.6 / 3.3 |
61 / 70 |
43.8% / 43.4% |
39.3% / 42.9% |
24.2% / 29.8% |
4.2 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
32.8% / 42.9% |
30.6 / 20.3 |
11 | TB | 17 – 19 L | -0.7 | 74.2% / 55.0% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
3.2% / 0.0% |
8.4 / 8.2 |
50.0% / 44.1% |
18.2% / 29.4% |
3.8 / 3.4 |
53 / 74 |
69.8% / 44.8% |
64.2% / 50.0% |
38.7% / 23.8% |
6.5 / 6.0 |
1.9% / 1.4% |
41.5% / 45.9% |
21.8 / 26.4 |
12 | @DEN | 30 – 27 W | 1.6 | 38.8% / 43.6% |
12.2% / 12.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.9 / 8.7 |
48.1% / 41.0% |
14.8% / 28.2% |
3.1 / 3.2 |
76 / 78 |
46.4% / 41.8% |
42.1% / 42.3% |
7.7% / 59.8% |
3.6 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
35.5% / 50.0% |
29.8 / 20.7 |
13 | @ATL | 29 – 28 W | 2.3 | 57.7% / 52.8% |
3.8% / 5.6% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
10.2 / 8.1 |
40.0% / 66.7% |
32.0% / 13.3% |
5.0 / 4.3 |
51 / 66 |
58.8% / 60.0% |
49.0% / 59.1% |
56.1% / 36.4% |
7.7 / 6.3 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
49.0% / 45.5% |
18.1 / 25.2 |
14 | OAK | 21 – 13 W | 6.4 | 40.7% / 21.4% |
3.7% / 2.4% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
9.6 / 2.6 |
36.7% / 51.6% |
13.3% / 12.9% |
2.3 / 4.4 |
57 / 73 |
43.6% / 36.5% |
38.6% / 34.2% |
51.5% / 13.9% |
5.7 / 3.3 |
3.5% / 0.0% |
52.6% / 42.5% |
26.5 / 30.5 |
15 | TEN | 17 – 19 L | 8.3 | 37.9% / 42.4% |
3.4% / 3.0% |
3.6% / 3.1% |
5.5 / 7.3 |
53.6% / 64.5% |
32.1% / 19.4% |
5.6 / 4.8 |
57 / 64 |
51.2% / 56.5% |
45.6% / 53.1% |
38.5% / 39.5% |
5.6 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 3.1% |
49.1% / 48.4% |
36.6 / 21.8 |
16 | DEN | 33 – 10 W | 11.8 | 43.2% / 27.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
2.7% / 2.3% |
6.6 / 4.3 |
50.0% / 50.0% |
13.2% / 28.6% |
6.3 / 4.5 |
75 / 57 |
48.2% / 35.0% |
46.7% / 33.3% |
54.2% / 40.2% |
6.5 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 3.5% |
50.7% / 24.6% |
29.3 / 31.5 |
17 | @SD | 37 – 27 W | 5.9 | 65.5% / 47.4% |
3.4% / 0.0% |
3.6% / 5.3% |
9.0 / 7.1 |
38.7% / 57.7% |
32.3% / 7.7% |
3.3 / 5.0 |
60 / 64 |
47.9% / 53.8% |
51.7% / 51.6% |
43.8% / 29.6% |
6.1 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
51.7% / 40.6% |
40.0 / 20.9 |
19 | PIT | 16 – 18 L | -3.5 | 42.9% / 46.9% |
2.9% / 3.1% |
2.9% / 3.2% |
4.7 / 6.8 |
50.0% / 56.8% |
14.3% / 13.5% |
4.4 / 4.7 |
49 / 69 |
47.4% / 59.2% |
44.9% / 52.2% |
33.5% / 50.0% |
4.6 / 5.7 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
28.6% / 53.6% |
26.9 / 30.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log | PASS | RUSH | GAMES | |||||||||||||||
Wk | Opp | Score | Game Control | Succ Pass Plays | Sack Rate | Int Rate | NYPP | Succ Rush Plays | Stuff Rate | Yds per Rush | All Snaps | Early Down Succ | Succ Rate | Big Yards Rate | Yds per Play | Fum Lost Rate | Run Ratio | Starting Field Pos |
1 | @ARI | 23 – 21 W | 5.0 | 51.4% / 50.0% |
5.7% / 7.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 6.3 |
31.3% / 57.9% |
34.4% / 15.8% |
3.3 / 4.8 |
67 / 59 |
36.7% / 53.2% |
41.8% / 52.5% |
45.9% / 38.1% |
5.4 / 5.8 |
3.0% / 0.0% |
47.8% / 32.2% |
24.7 / 29.2 |
2 | MIA | 31 – 24 W | 16.3 | 55.3% / 65.9% |
5.3% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 4.5% |
8.0 / 8.8 |
41.0% / 50.0% |
20.5% / 18.8% |
4.2 / 4.4 |
77 / 60 |
47.5% / 65.3% |
48.1% / 61.7% |
38.8% / 41.2% |
6.1 / 7.7 |
1.3% / 3.3% |
50.6% / 26.7% |
31.4 / 22.7 |
3 | HOU | 27 – 0 W | 13.1 | 40.0% / 48.8% |
5.0% / 4.7% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
4.9 / 4.1 |
48.8% / 40.7% |
22.0% / 22.2% |
4.6 / 4.0 |
61 / 70 |
54.5% / 50.0% |
45.9% / 45.7% |
51.1% / 13.4% |
4.7 / 4.1 |
0.0% / 2.9% |
67.2% / 38.6% |
40.5 / 15.6 |
4 | BUF | 0 – 16 L | -11.1 | 43.3% / 43.9% |
10.0% / 4.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.2 / 6.0 |
40.9% / 56.3% |
27.3% / 21.9% |
4.1 / 4.2 |
52 / 73 |
51.4% / 50.0% |
42.3% / 49.3% |
34.3% / 22.8% |
5.3 / 5.2 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
42.3% / 43.8% |
22.9 / 23.3 |
5 | @CLE | 33 – 13 W | 15.1 | 47.6% / 45.9% |
2.4% / 5.4% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
9.6 / 6.4 |
42.1% / 13.0% |
15.8% / 39.1% |
2.6 / 1.2 |
80 / 60 |
46.6% / 34.1% |
45.0% / 33.3% |
54.3% / 28.5% |
6.3 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
47.5% / 38.3% |
30.6 / 20.7 |
6 | CIN | 35 – 17 W | 4.4 | 60.5% / 48.5% |
7.9% / 6.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.4 / 7.2 |
39.1% / 53.1% |
26.1% / 28.1% |
3.4 / 3.8 |
61 / 65 |
54.0% / 52.9% |
52.5% / 50.8% |
51.5% / 48.2% |
7.2 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.7% / 49.2% |
28.0 / 22.9 |
7 | @PIT | 27 – 16 W | 6.2 | 57.7% / 39.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 2.2% |
8.5 / 6.1 |
53.3% / 40.9% |
16.7% / 27.3% |
4.7 / 4.3 |
56 / 68 |
57.1% / 42.0% |
55.4% / 39.7% |
33.1% / 35.7% |
6.5 / 5.5 |
3.6% / 0.0% |
53.6% / 32.4% |
29.6 / 32.3 |
8 | @BUF | 41 – 25 W | 12.9 | 50.0% / 31.0% |
13.2% / 4.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 5.0 |
41.7% / 61.5% |
29.2% / 19.2% |
3.0 / 6.4 |
62 / 68 |
42.6% / 45.1% |
46.8% / 42.6% |
43.0% / 58.2% |
5.8 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.7% / 38.2% |
31.4 / 27.0 |
10 | SEA | 24 – 31 L | -1.0 | 55.9% / 57.5% |
5.9% / 7.5% |
3.1% / 0.0% |
8.9 / 8.1 |
53.6% / 46.2% |
28.6% / 19.2% |
2.9 / 3.7 |
62 / 66 |
54.9% / 53.7% |
54.8% / 53.0% |
44.2% / 39.8% |
6.2 / 6.4 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
45.2% / 39.4% |
26.1 / 28.5 |
11 | @SF | 30 – 17 W | 7.6 | 47.5% / 40.0% |
2.5% / 14.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.8 / 5.1 |
51.6% / 51.9% |
12.9% / 29.6% |
5.5 / 4.5 |
71 / 62 |
48.1% / 47.9% |
49.3% / 45.2% |
51.2% / 39.1% |
6.3 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.7% / 43.5% |
32.8 / 23.5 |
12 | @NYJ | 22 – 17 W | -1.3 | 46.0% / 54.5% |
0.0% / 3.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.7 / 8.2 |
40.0% / 45.8% |
16.0% / 12.5% |
3.8 / 2.7 |
75 / 57 |
51.9% / 54.5% |
44.0% / 50.9% |
36.3% / 45.2% |
5.1 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 3.5% |
33.3% / 42.1% |
31.9 / 22.2 |
13 | LA | 26 – 10 W | 15.0 | 45.7% / 16.7% |
0.0% / 11.1% |
0.0% / 6.3% |
5.8 / 3.5 |
41.9% / 28.6% |
25.8% / 28.6% |
4.4 / 2.6 |
77 / 50 |
50.9% / 22.9% |
44.2% / 20.0% |
23.5% / 40.5% |
5.2 / 3.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.3% / 28.0% |
27.6 / 25.1 |
14 | BAL | 30 – 23 W | 8.9 | 51.3% / 40.7% |
2.6% / 3.7% |
2.6% / 1.9% |
10.3 / 5.7 |
59.3% / 50.0% |
11.1% / 28.6% |
3.6 / 3.0 |
66 / 68 |
57.4% / 44.2% |
54.5% / 42.6% |
54.3% / 37.9% |
7.5 / 5.1 |
3.0% / 0.0% |
40.9% / 20.6% |
27.3 / 28.7 |
15 | @DEN | 16 – 3 W | 6.6 | 41.2% / 40.9% |
5.9% / 9.1% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
5.2 / 5.7 |
40.0% / 58.8% |
15.0% / 23.5% |
3.4 / 3.4 |
74 / 61 |
46.3% / 54.2% |
40.5% / 45.9% |
19.4% / 35.0% |
4.2 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 3.3% |
54.1% / 27.9% |
29.5 / 23.1 |
16 | NYJ | 41 – 3 W | 21.8 | 50.0% / 30.8% |
3.3% / 7.7% |
0.0% / 12.5% |
7.0 / 4.9 |
35.7% / 48.3% |
21.4% / 31.0% |
2.8 / 3.8 |
72 / 55 |
38.0% / 46.3% |
41.7% / 40.0% |
41.5% / 51.5% |
4.6 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
58.3% / 52.7% |
38.8 / 22.9 |
17 | @MIA | 35 – 14 W | 12.9 | 55.9% / 58.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
8.1 / 6.0 |
62.1% / 34.8% |
24.1% / 26.1% |
4.1 / 3.3 |
63 / 57 |
58.8% / 46.7% |
58.7% / 49.1% |
37.4% / 12.9% |
6.3 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
46.0% / 40.4% |
31.0 / 30.9 |
19 | HOU | 34 – 16 W | 8.1 | 37.5% / 32.6% |
5.0% / 7.0% |
5.3% / 7.5% |
7.0 / 4.2 |
40.0% / 34.8% |
13.3% / 8.7% |
3.4 / 4.5 |
70 / 66 |
43.1% / 38.0% |
38.6% / 33.3% |
61.3% / 12.3% |
5.4 / 4.3 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
42.9% / 34.8% |
31.2 / 33.4 |
20 | PIT | 36 – 17 W | 12.4 | 58.1% / 57.4% |
4.7% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 2.1% |
8.7 / 6.7 |
40.0% / 25.0% |
26.7% / 25.0% |
2.0 / 2.7 |
73 / 67 |
51.0% / 45.1% |
50.7% / 47.8% |
47.0% / 20.4% |
5.9 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
41.1% / 29.9% |
30.8 / 26.8 |
21 | @ATL | 34 – 28 W | -11.7 | 50.0% / 55.6% |
7.4% / 18.5% |
1.6% / 0.0% |
6.5 / 8.9 |
56.0% / 50.0% |
20.0% / 22.2% |
4.2 / 5.8 |
93 / 45 |
51.3% / 62.2% |
51.6% / 53.3% |
29.5% / 58.1% |
5.9 / 7.6 |
1.1% / 2.2% |
26.9% / 40.0% |
26.8 / 22.8 |