Kansas City Chiefs @

New England Patriots

Thu, Sep 7
5:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 451
Odds: New England Patriots -8.5, Total: 48.5

Game Analysis

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Kansas City (+8 ½) at NEW ENGLAND

Before losing to the Steelers in the divisional playoffs last year, the Chiefs were projected to be a 7-point underdog in New England for the potential AFC Championship game. Not much has changed between these two teams but the line for this game opened at NE -8 and has since moved to 9 providing some value on Kansas City.

The math model leans with the Chiefs but home teams having success in these Thursday night season-opening games (10-1-3 ATS). Plus, week 1 night games historically have about a point higher home field advantage than day games. I’ll pass this one but I’d lean with KC at +10 or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Chiefs
  • Patriots
KC
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 36.0 38.6
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.4% 45.2%
  • Sack Rate 4.8% 4.5%
  • Int Rate 1.6% 2.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 14.7% 18.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 36.3% 35.0%
  • NYPP 6.7 6.5



Rush


  • Rush Plays 26.2 28.5
  • RB YPR 4.2 4.2
  • Stuff Rate 20.8% 20.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 41.7% 51.5%
  • Big Rush Yards 43.1% 36.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.1 4.4




Game

  • All Snaps 62.2 67.1
  • Early Down Succ 48.2% 49.5%
  • Succ Rate 44.5% 47.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 39.4% 36.5%
  • Yards Per Play 5.5 5.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 1.3%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.3 27.6
  • Run Ratio 42.4% 42.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.6 26.5
  • Game Control 1.1 -1.1
 
  • Points 23.8 19.4
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